{"id":1276,"date":"2007-05-21T23:02:03","date_gmt":"2007-05-22T04:02:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/05\/spurs-suns-series-shoots-down-another-betting-urban-legend\/"},"modified":"2007-05-21T23:02:03","modified_gmt":"2007-05-22T04:02:03","slug":"spurs-suns-series-shoots-down-another-betting-urban-legend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/05\/spurs-suns-series-shoots-down-another-betting-urban-legend\/","title":{"rendered":"Spurs-Suns Series Shoots Down Another Betting Urban Legend"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='tab-interval:.5in'><\/p>\n<div class=Section1>\n<h1><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Joe Duffy (<a\nhref=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/\">www.OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a>) <o:p><\/o:p><\/span><\/h1>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Over the years I\u2019ve heard a common faulty theory<br \/>\nregurgitated when either a game has a large pointspread or even more<br \/>\ncommonplace when a contest involves two teams that play opposite tempos. It entails<br \/>\nan if-then-else statement in which both the side and total are essentially handicapped<br \/>\njointly.<o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>\u201cIf you like the big favorite you have to like the over,<br \/>\nbut if you like the big dog, you have to like the under,\u201d the myth goes.<span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>Even more humdrum is \u201cIf you like the up-tempo<br \/>\nteam to cover, you have to like the over,\u201d and I\u2019m sure you can figure out what<br \/>\nfollows.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>In a classic illustration, I saw this drivel rear its ugly<br \/>\nhead on gambling posting boards before the Spurs-Suns series. <st1:City><st1:place>Phoenix<\/st1:place><\/st1:City><br \/>\nof course plays the chaotic full-court style where the shot clock is almost<br \/>\nirrelevant.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>The Spurs play a classic<br \/>\nhalf-court style where shots are generally taken with the shot clock at single<br \/>\ndigits.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>Even the newspaper hacks and<br \/>\ntalking heads on television recited the groupthink that a fast-paced game would<br \/>\nbenefit the Suns and a slow-paced game would be to the advantage of the Spurs. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Game 5 between <st1:City><st1:place>San Antonio<\/st1:place><\/st1:City><br \/>\nand <st1:City><st1:place>Phoenix<\/st1:place><\/st1:City> ended with the side<br \/>\nbeing a push. For our purpose, that\u2019s convenient because that was the now<br \/>\ninfamous game in which the Suns Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw were suspended,<br \/>\nhence from a handicapping standpoint, the results should be thrown out.<o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Of the remaining five games, <st1:City><st1:place>San<br \/>\nAntonio<\/st1:place><\/st1:City> won and covered three of them.<span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>All three went over the total.<span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span><st1:City><st1:place>Phoenix<\/st1:place><\/st1:City><br \/>\nwon and covered two, both of which went under the total. All five results, of<br \/>\ncourse, went against the conventional so-called logic. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>This is consistent with my observations over the<br \/>\nyears.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>Unless there is a push, there are<br \/>\nfour possible combinations of a side and total: Team <span class=GramE>A and<\/span><br \/>\nthe under, Team A and the over, Team B and the under and Team B and the over.<br \/>\nRandom chance suggests the if-then-else fairy tale has a 50 percent chance of<br \/>\nbeing right because it says of the possible four combinations it will likely be<br \/>\none of two possibilities. My educated observations says every time I hear this<br \/>\ntheory espoused, one of the two alleged to be likely combinations hits less<br \/>\nthan 50 percent of the time.<o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>I always handicap sides and totals as separate entities.<span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>If anything, based on experience, I feel more<br \/>\ncomfortable if I pick the ball control team to cover and the over, or the fast-paced<br \/>\nteam and the under. <span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>The domino effect of course is not going to be as<br \/>\noverwhelming as the Suns-Spurs series illustrates, but that example is closer<br \/>\nto the rule than the exception. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>A big believer in contrarian handicapping, as explained in<br \/>\nprevious articles, I can\u2019t say there is necessarily such an angle here.<span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>But the invaluable lesson is to not inhibit<br \/>\nhandicapping by subscribing to the popular fallacy. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Here is the if-then-else truth for sports bettors. If you<br \/>\nrid of the aforesaid robotic fairy tale, then your chances of winning are much<br \/>\ngreater. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Joe Duffy is CEO of <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span\nstyle='color:blue'><a href=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/\">OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a><br \/>\n<\/span><\/b>which now has the best free sports gambling match-ups, free picks,<br \/>\ndatabases and more.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;<\/o:p><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/body><br \/>\n<\/html><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com) Over the years I\u2019ve heard a common faulty theory regurgitated when either a game has a large pointspread or even more commonplace when a contest involves two teams that play opposite tempos. It entails an if-then-else statement in which both the side and total are essentially handicapped jointly. \u201cIf you like the &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/05\/spurs-suns-series-shoots-down-another-betting-urban-legend\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Spurs-Suns Series Shoots Down Another Betting Urban Legend<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sports_gambling_strategy_articles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1276","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1276"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1276\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1276"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1276"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1276"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}