{"id":1275,"date":"2007-05-16T18:58:22","date_gmt":"2007-05-16T23:58:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/05\/new-stats-coming-to-the-forefront-in-baseball-handicapping\/"},"modified":"2007-05-16T18:58:22","modified_gmt":"2007-05-16T23:58:22","slug":"new-stats-coming-to-the-forefront-in-baseball-handicapping","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/05\/new-stats-coming-to-the-forefront-in-baseball-handicapping\/","title":{"rendered":"New Stats Coming to the Forefront in Baseball Handicapping"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='tab-interval:.5in'><\/p>\n<div class=Section1>\n<h1><a name=\"OLE_LINK1\"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Joe Duffy (<\/span><\/a><a\nhref=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/\"><span style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'><span\nstyle='font-size:12.0pt'>www.OffshoreInsiders.com<\/span><\/span><span\nstyle='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'><\/span><\/a><span style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'><span\nstyle='font-size:12.0pt'>)<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/h1>\n<p class=MsoBodyText><span style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK1'>The hottest statistic<br \/>\namong baseball handicappers utilized in evaluating offenses <\/span>is on base<br \/>\npercentage plus slugging percentage (OPS). This is not a new statistic among<br \/>\nsharpies, and in fact was overlooked for a few decades by baseball itself. I<br \/>\nfirst heard about it in the mid-1970s when Steven Mann, a statistician for the<br \/>\nHouston Astros, was touting said numerator on a radio sports talk show I was<br \/>\nlistening to. I employed and tested this statistic to capture a few<br \/>\nStrat-o-Matic championships in my formative years. Who says youth is wasted on<br \/>\nthe young? <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>I\u2019ve always put forth that the proper Triple Crown in<br \/>\nbaseball should be on base percentage, slugging average and runs produced.<span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>In that vain, the streamlined stat of OPS is<br \/>\nfinally being noticed by the masses. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>In fact, the growingly more sophisticated gaming public is<br \/>\nfinally paying additional attention to offensive statistics.<span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>This is bad news for the books because Johnny<br \/>\nQ. Public used to throw his money away simply betting little more than just<br \/>\nstarting pitcher\u2019s ERA statistics with an extra emphasis on a hurler\u2019s last<br \/>\nthree starts. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>According to Cy McCormick of <a\nhref=\"http:\/\/www.masterlockline.com\/\"><span style='color:black'>MasterLockLine.com<\/span><\/a>,<br \/>\nthe online sports betting syndicate, the hot gauge now for pitchers is<br \/>\ncomparing his batting average against (OAV) overall against to his OAV with<br \/>\nballs in play. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Many of the cutting edge handicappers they monitor take the<br \/>\ntwo quoted stats and compare it to the league average to find disparities.<span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>\u201cThe thought is if a pitcher\u2019s overall<br \/>\nbatting average against ranks much higher than his batting average against with<br \/>\nballs in play, he is pitching better than his stats because the fielders behind<br \/>\nhim are not playing as well as they should be.\u201d<o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Of course if a pitcher does better relative to the rest of<br \/>\nthe league with balls in play than he does overall, the supposition among the<br \/>\navant-garde gamblers is that the pitcher has benefited from good fortune. Hence<br \/>\nrough days lay ahead for the hurler.<o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>McCormick says the top services parse the information to<br \/>\ntheir exact liking in their own private databases, but that Yahoo! Sports<br \/>\n(sports.yahoo.com) does the best job of any free public site comparing and<br \/>\ncontrasting that day\u2019s pitchers\u2019 stats to both the league average and league<br \/>\nleader.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>If there is one consideration that has seen some<br \/>\ndepreciation in value recently, it\u2019s the ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB<span\nclass=GramE>:FB<\/span>). Ground ball pitchers will always be more affective<br \/>\nthan fly ball pitchers, but the statistic is no longer the silver bullet data<br \/>\nall but guaranteeing impending doom. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText><span style='color:black'>\u201cFirst it was supposed to be<br \/>\njuiced balls then we realized it was juiced players,\u201d says Jerry Malcolm of <\/span><a\nhref=\"http:\/\/www.casinobettingnews.com\/\">CasinoBettingNews.com<\/a>.<span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>\u201cRegardless, a fly ball is not nearly as<br \/>\npoisonous now that the power numbers are stabilizing.\u201d <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>As in any sport, the elite gamblers look beyond mere<br \/>\nnumbers-crunchers. An uber-popular book and arguably the Bible for scrutinizing<br \/>\nand exploiting baseball statistics is \u201cMoneyball: the Art of Winning an Unfair<br \/>\nGame\u201d by Michael Lewis. Oh how true that title is for the gambler who masters<br \/>\nthe mathematical art. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Joe Duffy during his Cadillac Club scorephone days developed<br \/>\nthe reputation as the top baseball underdog handicapper in the business.<span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>His plays are now exclusive on <b\nstyle='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='color:blue'><a\nhref=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/\">OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a> <\/span><\/b><span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'> <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/body><br \/>\n<\/html><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com) The hottest statistic among baseball handicappers utilized in evaluating offenses is on base percentage plus slugging percentage (OPS). This is not a new statistic among sharpies, and in fact was overlooked for a few decades by baseball itself. I first heard about it in the mid-1970s when Steven Mann, a statistician for &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/05\/new-stats-coming-to-the-forefront-in-baseball-handicapping\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">New Stats Coming to the Forefront in Baseball Handicapping<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1275","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sports_gambling_strategy_articles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1275","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1275"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1275\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1275"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1275"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1275"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}