{"id":1231,"date":"2007-03-03T11:17:47","date_gmt":"2007-03-03T16:17:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/03\/not-all-march-madness-betting-beliefs-are-urban-legends\/"},"modified":"2007-03-03T11:17:47","modified_gmt":"2007-03-03T16:17:47","slug":"not-all-march-madness-betting-beliefs-are-urban-legends","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/03\/not-all-march-madness-betting-beliefs-are-urban-legends\/","title":{"rendered":"Not All March Madness Betting Beliefs are Urban Legends"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='tab-interval:.5in'><\/p>\n<div class=Section1>\n<h1><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Joe Duffy (<a\nhref=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/\">www.OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a>) <o:p><\/o:p><\/span><\/h1>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Our last article articulated our enthusiasm regarding an<br \/>\nESPN Insider series. It was scientific study that found common attributes on<br \/>\noverachievement and underachievement teams in March Madness. We believe close<br \/>\nscrutiny and application will only increase our \u201cLord of the Dance\u201d status. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>A great many of our articles, over the years, focused on<br \/>\nexposing and fading gambling myths. But not all commonly held beliefs are untruths.<br \/>\n<o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>There were some trends that the research found are more in<br \/>\ntune with perception. Perhaps topping the list is the importance of experience.<br \/>\nCoaches with at least 10 tournament appearances and teams with at least four<br \/>\nstraight tournament bids did very well both in beating higher seeds or holding<br \/>\nserve when they were the better seeded team. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>However, not surprisingly \u201cexperience\u201d was significantly<br \/>\nmore affective when combined with other top performing factors, such as<br \/>\nfrontcourt scoring ability, \u201cstar\u201d power (if you didn\u2019t read our previous<br \/>\narticle, defined as \u201cAll American\u201d). This is consistent with what we\u2019ve<br \/>\nstressed for years.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span>Having been there<br \/>\nand done that is icing on the cake, but not the entire package by any means. In<br \/>\nother words, a talented and seasoned team is better than a gifted newbie, but<br \/>\nmaturity in and of itself has little value if not backed by ability. <span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'>  <\/span><o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>One finding that I\u2019m not sure whether to categorize it as<br \/>\ncontrarian or widely accepted, but instead classify it under a more significant<br \/>\numbrella: invaluable foreknowledge. When united with other attributes, teams<br \/>\nthat enter the tournament on a one-game losing streak do exceptionally well in<br \/>\nthe tournament. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>This should come as a surprise to nobody, though it likely<br \/>\ndoes. We used the terminology of the study, but perhaps the term \u201cstreak\u201d is a<br \/>\nmisnomer. Teams that enter the Dance off of one and only one loss obviously are<br \/>\nnot \u201cstreaking\u201d in the wrong direction. This of course is not flawless. <span\nstyle='mso-spacerun:yes'> <\/span>Hypothetically they could have lost 4-of-5 as<br \/>\nan example, but it would be the exception. Capturing conference championship<br \/>\nmeans winning three or four games in a row, usually in as many days and it the<br \/>\ncase of the big conferences, with as little as three days rest before the Field<br \/>\nof 65. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>A team off a loss is almost always an at-large team and<br \/>\nwill generally be better rested than the conference champs. A little wake-up<br \/>\ncall before the tournament starts will be a positive for a quality team. Let\u2019s<br \/>\nface it, teams that are good enough to make the Field of 65, somewhere along<br \/>\nthe line showed they have an ability to rebound from a one-game setback. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>Not to mention, both the NCAA committee and the betting<br \/>\npublic can tend to overreact based on an early exit in the conference<br \/>\ntournaments. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=MsoBodyText>The ESPN quantitative analysis of course, was not gambling<br \/>\nspecific, so hence it will not produce direct and specific systems to apply.<br \/>\nHowever, the trial and error has beyond reproach produced very advantageous<br \/>\nrules of engagement for the sports gambler during March Madness pointspread<br \/>\nbetting. <\/p>\n<p class=MsoNormal>Joe Duffy is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard<br \/>\nscorephone network and CEO of <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span\nstyle='color:blue'><a href=\"http:\/\/www.offshoreinsiders.com\/\">OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a>,<br \/>\n<\/span><\/b>the premier hub of world-class handicappers. <o:p><\/o:p><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/body><br \/>\n<\/html><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com) Our last article articulated our enthusiasm regarding an ESPN Insider series. It was scientific study that found common attributes on overachievement and underachievement teams in March Madness. We believe close scrutiny and application will only increase our \u201cLord of the Dance\u201d status. A great many of our articles, over the years, focused &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2007\/03\/not-all-march-madness-betting-beliefs-are-urban-legends\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Not All March Madness Betting Beliefs are Urban Legends<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sports_gambling_strategy_articles"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1231","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1231"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1231\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}