{"id":12085,"date":"2011-09-11T15:42:45","date_gmt":"2011-09-11T20:42:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/?p=12085"},"modified":"2011-09-11T15:42:45","modified_gmt":"2011-09-11T20:42:45","slug":"sharp-players-eye-week-2-nfl-odds-off-nfl-week-1-final-scores","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2011\/09\/sharp-players-eye-week-2-nfl-odds-off-nfl-week-1-final-scores\/","title":{"rendered":"Sharp Players Eye Week 2 NFL Odds Off NFL Week 1 Final Scores"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sharps made a fortune with early scores<\/a> on NFL Week 1. Here are the highlights:<\/p>\n

The Canadian Crew<\/strong><\/a> is done for the day. Late play pending off 3-0 NFL sweep: Already in are Baltimore, Chicago, and Philadelphia. Key Play of the Day<\/strong><\/a> improves to 80 percent with the Bills outright.<\/p>\n

GodsTips sweep the final week of preseason going 2-0. After Green Bay Thursday, it was a perfect 3-0 sweep early with Wise Guy Chicago, Majors on Tampa over and a rout on Houston. Get the Sunday night side for just $12. You MUST choose the Second Chance option to get that price. Sunday Night side just $12<\/a> on the Second Chance option.<\/p>\n

Here is what GodsTips clients got early:<\/p>\n

Wise Guy plays are your maximum play.\u00a0 Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. We always urge line shopping to compliment the sharpest plays in the world and release plays as early as possible to ensure more success. Often our plays are released before most sportsbooks have lines up.\u00a0 If we released plays later in the day, it would allow us to shop for better lines than we are able to post.\u00a0 But we are more concerned about YOU being able to shop for better lines.\u00a0 Be aware that in many cases better lines will be available than the ones we post.\u00a0\u00a0 Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above.\u00a0 While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections.\u00a0 Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.<\/p>\n

All baseball picks now specify pitchers unless otherwise noted.\u00a0 Team record is what that team did with the pitcher starting, regardless if he was involved in the decision.<\/p>\n

NFL<\/p>\n

Wise Guy\u2026<\/p>\n

CHICAGO +2.5 Atlanta<\/p>\n

Matt Ryan has more weapons than ever, but won\u2019t have time to find them. Julius Peppers is one of the best defensive ends in the NFL right now. And he is a nightmare to get blocked against the run, but especially in the passing game.<\/p>\n

Chicago will line Peppers up on either the right or left side, but more often than not, he will do battle with Sam Baker, a very average left tackle. Atlanta will have to give Baker help with Peppers, which could limit its options at receiver.<\/p>\n

In Lovie Smith\u2019s seven seasons as coach, the Bears\u2019 defense has allowed an average of 12 points in openers. And that includes games against the Packers\u2019 Brett Favre (170 yards, 40.9 rating), the Chargers\u2019 Philip Rivers (190 yards, 73.3), the Colts\u2019 Peyton Manning (257 yards, 81.8) and the Packers\u2019 Aaron Rodgers (184 yards, 92.0).<\/p>\n

Atlanta has weaknesses on defense and are not the type to exploit Jay Cutler. Chemistry is there\u2014important with the shortened offseason. The Bears benefit from a group of veteran leaders on defense \u2014 Urlacher (33), end Julius Peppers (31), tackle Anthony Adams (31), Tillman (30), linebacker Lance Briggs (30) and end Israel Idonije (30) have eight years or more in the NFL<\/p>\n

The home dog wins here.<\/p>\n

Major\u2026<\/p>\n

HOUSTON -8.5 Indianapolis<\/p>\n

In all my years of handicapping, I am trying to think of one team every having more motivation to blow out the other in week 1. Houston has always been everyone\u2019s breakout team\u2014now they can make their statement against a Colts team without Peyton Manning and with 104-year-old Kerry Collins.<\/p>\n

Indianapolis has managed to get bigger up front, especially on the interior, but it still is struggling when it comes to stopping a power running game.<\/p>\n

There is some uncertainty about the health of running back Arian Foster. But we will be surprised if he does not play.\u00a0 He gave the Texans their second 1,000 yard rusher in the past seven years and definitely takes some of the pressure off of QB Matt Schaub and the passing game.<\/p>\n

That will keep the defense very honest and create big matchup problems. Andre Johnson has arguably become one of the top two or three receivers in the NFL and is even more effective when isolated against cornerbacks that are looking at a three- to four-inch height disadvantage. Both of Indianapolis\u2019 starting corners are in the 5-foot-10 range and can be exposed when trying to match up with a big receiver like Johnson.<\/p>\n

Detroit-Tampa OVER 41.5<\/p>\n

Both teams have somewhat erratic, but potentially very good offenses. With a low total, it\u2019s too high of a percentage play to not expect at least one to explode. Both teams will have more success with the big play then slowly marching down the field.<\/p>\n

Josh Freeman a fine threesome to throw to in Arrelious Benn, Kellen Winslow and Mike Williams. He also has LeGarrette Blount at RB to keep everyone on Detroit\u2019s defense honest.<\/p>\n

Detroit has weapons with Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best. Detroit has a defense that\u2019s more anointed than proven. Tampa\u2019s offense improved when Josh Freeman started. Look for 47 points to be scored.<\/p>\n

The Key Play of the Day was too easy. Alabama Saturday, the Bills today:<\/p>\n

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs<\/p>\n

Kansas City (-5.5, 39.5)<\/p>\n

10p<\/p>\n

Selection: Buffalo<\/p>\n

I.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Vegas sharps very concerned about KC OC Weiss heading to UF. His absence was clear in preseason. Chiefs defense will struggle early in season<\/p>\n

II.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Private database gives Buffalo 84.33 % chance to cover<\/p>\n

III.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 StatFox Outplay Factor gives Buffalo the spread edge by 2.5 points<\/p>\n

IV.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MasseyRatings has KC winning but failing to cover 19.8-22.5<\/p>\n

V.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Buffalo much better than last year\u2019s record after losing three games in OT and improving throughout year<\/p>\n

VI.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Good handicapper Phil Steele has Buffalo on his Power Sweep<\/p>\n

VII.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Good service Wunderdog has Buffalo<\/p>\n

VIII.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 KANSAS CITY is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.<\/p>\n

IX.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 BUFFALO is 9-3 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY since 1992<\/p>\n

X.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Chiefs are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite<\/p>\n

XI.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0<\/p>\n

XII.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Solid service Nelly\u2019s Greensheet has Buffalo<\/p>\n

XIII.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Buffalo has added 340-pound rookie Marcell Dareus plus inside linebacker Nick Barnett to go along with one of the league\u2019s top nose tackles, Kyle Williams. The Chiefs generally don\u2019t match up well with bigger, more physical opponents.<\/p>\n

Here is Saturday\u2019s Key Pod:<\/p>\n

Alabama at Penn State<\/p>\n

12:30p<\/p>\n

Alabama (-9.5)<\/p>\n

I.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 All teams as Road team as a Favorite – Playing on Saturday – With 6 days off – vs. opponent with a 80% or more winning % – Allowed 7 points or less AGAINST in their last game is 12-2<\/p>\n

II.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Road team – Playing on Saturday – Total is between 41.5 to 44 – vs. opponent with a 80% or more winning % – Coming off a 1 ATS win is 8-2.<\/p>\n

III.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Alabama\u00a0 Road team – During the month of September – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite is 9-2<\/p>\n

IV.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Alabama team playing as a Road team – After a non conference game – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite is 11-4<\/p>\n

V.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Penn State as a Home team – Last 5 years – Coming off a Home win as a Favorite is 3-7<\/p>\n

VI.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 AccuScore has Alabama winning 30.4-16.6<\/p>\n

VII.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ALA is 14-7-1 ATS (+5.5 ppg) since October 16, 1999 as a road favorite after a win.<\/p>\n

VIII.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ALA is 14-6 ATS (+5.7 ppg) since September 13, 2008 after a win at home.<\/p>\n

IX.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ALA is 21-11 ATS (+3.7 ppg) since October 06, 1990 as a road favorite after a win at home.<\/p>\n

X.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ALA is 30-12 ATS (+4.4 ppg) since September 17, 1994 on the road after a win at home.<\/p>\n

XI.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Private database gives Alabama a 85.88 chance of covering<\/p>\n

XII.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ALABAMA) – after allowing 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game is 64-25<\/p>\n

XIII.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 GreyMatterStats has Alabama covering<\/p>\n

XIV.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Masseyratings has Alabama winning 29.9-17.4<\/p>\n

XV.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Alabama returns 10 defensive starters<\/p>\n

XVI.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Penn State replacing all-time leading rusher Evan Royster<\/p>\n

XVII.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Since the start of 2010, the Nittany Lions complete 43.0 percent of passes against the SEC, compared to 58.7 against other conferences. Against the SEC, Penn State has a 1-8 TD-INT ratio compared to 18-9 against others.<\/p>\n

XVIII.\u00a0\u00a0 With mediocre quarterbacks Rob Bolden and Matt McCloin, the 23rd<\/sup>-ranked Nittany Lions don\u2019t have enough offense to attack what should be one of Alabama\u2019s best defensive teams.<\/p>\n

XIX.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Top play from PredictionMachine on Alabama<\/p>\n

Now to the wunderkinds of the Canadian Crew<\/a><\/p>\n

Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears<\/p>\n

Sunday, September 11, 1:00 p.m. ET<\/p>\n

NFL betting line: Falcons -3<\/p>\n

We see this every year. A team gets hyped like crazy in the offseason, so much that it winds up a road favorite against a reigning division champion. Yes, the Falcons\u2019 offense looks like it will be very exciting in 2011, as Matt Ryan airs it out to Roddy White, Julio Jones and company. Flying under the radar, however, is the fact that this team\u2019s so-so defense isn\u2019t improved entering this season. We can\u2019t underestimate the power of a home crowd in Week 1, either. The Bears may regress this season but they still have a great defense and some playmakers on offense.<\/p>\n

People are acting like Atlanta already has this game locked up. It doesn\u2019t. Look for the Bears to surprise, with Matt Forte leading the charge in the backfield.<\/p>\n

The pick: Bears +3<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Eagles @ St. Louis Rams<\/p>\n

Sunday, September 11, 1:00 p.m. ET<\/p>\n

NFL betting line: Eagles -4.5<\/p>\n

Is Sam Bradford a star quarterback in the making? Yes. Is Josh McDaniels a DREAM marriage for him as an offensive co-ordinator? Yes. But I still don\u2019t think St. Louis wins in Week 1.<\/p>\n

A Josh McDaniels playbook isn\u2019t easy to master \u2013 especially during a lockout-shortened offseason in which study time is short. Bradford\u2019s preseason was pretty uneven, suggesting he and McDaniels are still working out the kinks. Facing an aggressive Eagles \u201cD\u201d with a solid pass rush and unbelievable secondary isn\u2019t a recipe for aerial success.<\/p>\n

And look at the speed the Eagles will throw at the Rams on offense. Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy on turf? Fuggedaboutit.<\/p>\n

The pick: Eagles -4.5 NFC 2 Team Best Bet of the Year<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens<\/p>\n

Sunday, September 11, 1:00 p.m. ET<\/p>\n

NFL betting line: Ravens -2.5<\/p>\n

We don\u2019t know that the Steelers have fixed their trouble with defending the deep pass. It plagued them last year. With Lee Evans joining the fray in Baltimore, look for Joe Flacco to really test Pittsburgh\u2019s secondary \u2013 and look for him to succeed.<\/p>\n

The pick: Ravens -2.5<\/p>\n

This is why<\/a> OffshoreInsiders.com is trusted by pro gamblers.<\/p>\n

For more information: <\/strong>Get winners daily on OffshoreInsiders.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sharps made a fortune with early scores on NFL Week 1. Here are the highlights: The Canadian Crew is done for the day. Late play pending off 3-0 NFL sweep: Already in are Baltimore, Chicago, and Philadelphia. Key Play of the Day improves to 80 percent with the Bills outright. GodsTips sweep the final week … Continue reading Sharp Players Eye Week 2 NFL Odds Off NFL Week 1 Final Scores<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12085","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sports_betting_news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12085","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12085"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12085\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12087,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12085\/revisions\/12087"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12085"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12085"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12085"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}