{"id":10375,"date":"2011-02-07T23:00:14","date_gmt":"2011-02-07T23:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/?p=10375"},"modified":"2011-02-07T23:00:14","modified_gmt":"2011-02-07T23:00:14","slug":"2011-academy-awards-odds-predictions-and-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/2011\/02\/2011-academy-awards-odds-predictions-and-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"2011 Academy Awards Odds, Predictions, and Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"

Say what you want about the Golden Globes, the SAG Awards, the People\u2019s Choice Awards, and so on, but there is no bigger award show in the entertainment betting<\/a> business than the Academy Awards. It\u2019s the cr\u00e8me de la cr\u00e8me. All the more reason to research our potential picks early.<\/p>\n

Here are some wagers to consider. And remember \u2013 the Oscars don\u2019t always follow the Golden Globe picks. The Hollywood Foreign Press, which makes the Globe selections, has lost a lot of credibility in recent years, so we can\u2019t take its picks as seriously anymore.<\/p>\n

BEST PICTURE<\/strong><\/p>\n

The King\u2019s Speech -800<\/p>\n

The Social Network +150<\/p>\n

True Grit +1000<\/p>\n

The Fighter +2000<\/p>\n

Inception +2000<\/p>\n

Black Swan +2500<\/p>\n

The Kids are All Right +4000<\/p>\n

Winter\u2019s Bone +4000<\/p>\n

127 Hours +5000<\/p>\n

Toy Story 3: +5000<\/p>\n

First things first: don\u2019t get caught betting<\/a> on anything, and I mean anything, other than The King\u2019s Speech <\/em>or The Social Network<\/em>. This is absolutely a two-horse race. The Social Network <\/em>took top honors at the Globes but the Globes are known for making more progressive, modern choices. The King\u2019s Speech <\/em>is more \u201cOscar-ish\u201d as a period piece and led the field in overall nominations, which is often (though not always) a hint of the eventual winner.<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s free pick: The King\u2019s Speech -800<\/p>\n

BEST ACTOR<\/strong><\/p>\n

Colin Firth, The King\u2019s Speech -10000<\/p>\n

James Franco, 127 Hours +1200<\/p>\n

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network +1400<\/p>\n

Jeff Bridges, True Grit +2000<\/p>\n

Javier Bardem, Biutiful +3000<\/p>\n

I know you get a ridiculously low return on your investment but there\u2019s little use in avoiding Colin Firth here. He was fantastic in The King\u2019s Speech<\/em>, he got his heart broken in this category last year by Bridges, and he has won every possible acting award for this role so far. Whatever you do, avoid Bridges at all costs. He won last year for Crazy Heart <\/em>and he essential lyplayed the same character in True Grit. <\/em>He has no shot this time.<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s free pick: Colin Firth +10000<\/p>\n

BEST ACTRESS<\/strong><\/p>\n

Natalie Portman, Black Swan -2200<\/p>\n

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right +500<\/p>\n

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter\u2019s Bone +2000<\/p>\n

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole +3300<\/p>\n

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine +5000<\/p>\n

This is far less of a slam dunk than the Best Actor category, so online betting<\/a> sharps beware. Most people believe it\u2019s Natalie Portman\u2019s year and she\u2019s won plenty of awards on the circuit so far for Black Swan<\/em>. But the Academy is sentimental; you never know if it might try to make up for Annette Bening\u2019s past snubs and give her the win. The darkhorse is Jennifer Lawrence, so may have given the year\u2019s best performance, but her relative anonymity will probably sink her. I think Portman takes it but it\u2019s no sure thing.<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s free pick: Natalie Portman -2200<\/p>\n

BEST DIRECTOR<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tom Hooper, The King\u2019s Speech -200<\/p>\n

David Fincher, The Social Network -180<\/p>\n

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan +1200<\/p>\n

Ethan and Joel Coen, True Grit +3000<\/p>\n

David O. Russell, The Fighter +3000<\/p>\n

Hooper is the favorite here but I think he\u2019ll be disappointed. All the critical praise for The King\u2019s Speech <\/em>has focused on the acting and writing, with very little talk of Hooper\u2019s directing. David Fincher appeared to influence his movie, The Social Network<\/em>, more. Christopher Nolan should win this award but, since he didn\u2019t even get nominated, I like Fincher, who won the Golden Globe already.<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s free pick: David Fincher -180<\/p>\n

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR<\/strong><\/p>\n

Christian Bale, The Fighter -1500<\/p>\n

Geoffrey Rush, The King\u2019s Speech +350<\/p>\n

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right +4000<\/p>\n

John Hawkes, Winter\u2019s Bone +4000<\/p>\n

Jeremy Renner, The Town +4000<\/p>\n

If it weren\u2019t for the highly respected Geoffrey Rush\u2019s presence, Christian Bale would have this award locked up already. Still \u2013 Bale has dominated this award everywhere leading up to the Oscars. The Best Supporting victory usually goes to someone who \u201csteals\u201d the movie. Bale stole the show from Mark Whalberg in The Fighter<\/em>. Rush didn\u2019t steal it from Colin Firth in The King\u2019s Speech. <\/em><\/p>\n

Today\u2019s free pick: Christian Bale -1500<\/p>\n

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS<\/strong><\/p>\n

Melissa Leo, The Fighter -600<\/p>\n

Hailee Steinfeild, True Grit +300<\/p>\n

Helena Bonham Carter, The King\u2019s Speech +400<\/p>\n

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom +2000<\/p>\n

Amy Adams, The Fighter +2000<\/p>\n

This should easily be the most hotly contested of the major awards. Leo is the clear favorite after picking up lots of hardware for The Fighter <\/em>over the last couple of months. But her role was flashy, obvious even, and some other actresses are picking up steam. Youngster Hailee Steinfield\u2019s breakthrough effort in True Grit makes her a sentimental favorite. In the end, I expect the sometimes-stuffy Academy to recognize Helen Bonham Carter\u2019s subtle effort as the Queen of England in The King\u2019s Speech. <\/em><\/p>\n

Today\u2019s free pick<\/a>: Helena Bonham Carter +400<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Say what you want about the Golden Globes, the SAG Awards, the People\u2019s Choice Awards, and so on, but there is no bigger award show in the entertainment betting business than the Academy Awards. It\u2019s the cr\u00e8me de la cr\u00e8me. All the more reason to research our potential picks early. Here are some wagers to … Continue reading 2011 Academy Awards Odds, Predictions, and Preview<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10375","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10375"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10375\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10378,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10375\/revisions\/10378"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.joeduffy.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}