ERA Versus WHIP in Handicapping

I share oodles of information and debate philosophies with many sharp players on a continuous basis. Such locking of horns is imperative to knowledge progression.  Said argumentations are to handicapping advisers what scholarly journals are to academia.

One of the most heated deliberations among the sharpest of the sharks is how to weigh a pitcher’s ERA relative to his WHIP.

I realize most baseball fans know what an ERA is, but many are not as versed on WHIP.  It’s walks+hits/innings pitched.  As much as I savor involving myself in debate with other masters of the trade, inevitably I am the one screaming the remedy is “both”.

I tell them it’s the equivalent of asking a doctor whether one should diet or exercise.  Sure conquering one or the other is better than neither, but any reputable physician advises they are not mutually exclusive.

A true handicapping scientist knows that careful interpretation of both ERA and WHIP neutralizes the inherent flaws of both while reinforcing the stronghold of each numerator.

Here is a pro-WHIP argument I often hear and articulated on rec.gambling. sports newsgroup by one of the participants:

The ERA can be affected by good fortunate (luck) far more than WHIP.

The walks and hits a pitcher gives up show his skills facing a batter and will rise as he continues to allow hits and walks—as it should.

But the same poor pitching, which allowed the walks and hits onboard, isn’t necessarily reflected in his ERA stat.  He may escape lucky. His ERA can be affected either direction by the help he gets from his mates and/or the wind and/or the size of the ballpark.

This is particularly important in the first handful of starts of the early season, where averages can be easily skewed by a few innings.

A pitcher allowing a 400’ shot to center for example when a breeze is blowing in or the fielder makes a circus catch over the wall—escapes with no runs scored, saving his ERA.

But in a different park the same 400’ shot to center is a homerun, or the wind blows it in the gap for a double to score a couple—and his ERA goes up!

So one fortunate guy gets a low ERA and the less fortunate guy, who allowed the SAME number of hits and walks, maybe even LESS, his ERA goes UP!

Meanwhile, the WHIP stat is not affected unfairly in that way, and as such I feel it more indicative of the pitcher’s skill.

I agree with many of the points raised but the dissertation was a bit one-sided review of the pros and cons.

WHIP can be very imperfect as well. It does not measure a pitcher’s ability to pitch out of tough situations or whether or not he gives up a disproportionate number of singles and walks relative to the pitcher who has a propensity to give up the long ball.

Pitchers who can get the ground ball double play when they need it or have the ability to bear down with runners in scoring position will generally do better in the ERA category than WHIP.

Plus in a discussion with some of the top baseball predictors on the planet, one of the elite of the elite reminded us that the team that scores more runs wins 100 percent of the time.  The team that gets the most walks plus hits often loses. As devil’s advocate, I added the team that gets the most runs is not always the team that allowed the fewer earned runs.

Hence, I must be adamant as an inescapable stipulation that because baseball’s definition of “earned run” is not without glitch, especially from a handicapping standpoint, an old hand also must pay heed to unearned runs. After all, there are no such things as an “unearned” hit or walk in the WHIP stat.

However seeing some of the top handicapping geniuses get in heated dispute of the pros and cons of each statistic only reinforced what I believed all along—the few wizards out there never, ever ignore one math unit at the expense of the other.

As a sports doctor the only baseball picks that I give my patients will be from the  knowledge that a steady diet of winners involves exercising both ERA and WHIP.

Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at GodsTips.com which is the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show.



Monday Godspicks



Monday, April 17, 2006

America’s
greatest sports service the Dream Team
at Godspicks.com has a
night MLB Wise Guy (NL Chalk of the Week-yet to lose)
plus night MLB and NBA Majors
to go with the Patriot’s Day winner you
got earlier.

With the NHL and NBA playoffs about to start, lock into at
least our two month package now and get the plays the split second we release
them. The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com. Alternate
forms of payment
are available
.
Godspicks is proud to be part of the Handicapper’s Sampler rundown
of which sports services are hot and who has the big play at JoeDuffy.net Godspicks
will again have the best NHL playoff winners in 2006.

MLB

WHITE SOX
(CONTRERAS
-314) Kansas City
(Mays)

Yes you should be shocked seeing us laying such
chalk. We didn’t become the Industry Standard that way, but this is
worth the 3-1 odds. KC has lost seven straight, all by two or more runs. In fact, they are 2-9 on the year and all
losses were by two or more runs.

The Sox got their World Series hangover out of the way and
have won 6-of-7. The Royals’ Joe Mays has been throwing beach balls to the
plate. His ERA is 12.86 and his WHIP 2.429. Contreras has a 1.93 ERA and a
1.071 WHIP. The Sox are 16-3 at home in the series.

Monday Trends, News and Notes

Monday, April 17, 2006 

 

America’s
greatest sports service the Dream Team
at Godspicks.com has a
night MLB Wise Guy (NL Chalk of the Week-yet to lose) plus night MLB and NBA
Majors
to go with the Patriot’s Day winner you got earlier. 

With the NHL and NBA playoffs about to start, lock into at
least our two month package now and get the plays the split second we release
them. The ENTIRE card  is just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
  Godspicks is proud to be part of the Handicapper’s Sampler rundown
of which sports services are hot and who has the big play at JoeDuffy.net Godspicks
will again have the best NHL playoff winners in 2006.

 

MLB

·       
San Fran is 11-3 to Miguel Batista

·       
The Cubs are 8-2 to Brett Tomko

·       
Paul Byrd has a 5-1 lifetime mark with a 2.33
ERA to Detroit

·       
The White Sox are 4-15 to Joe Mays

·       
Kansas City
is 0-7 to Jose Contreras

 

NBA

·       
The Bulls are 8-2 to Orlando

·       
Indiana
is 1-10 their last 11

·       
Indiana
has gone under 16-6 their last 22

·       
Milwaukee
is 11-2 this year after allowing 105 or more points

·       
New Orleans-Phoenix have gone under 8-of-10

 

Here are news and notes from Godspicks.com private
clipboard.  They are compiled from
hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. Get advanced news and
notes ready for opening lines at blog on our home
page. 

Bulls-Magic

Orlando Sentinel

The playoff chase is over, but Orlando’s
eight-game winning streak is still alive, which should keep the game
interesting. In their last home game of the season, the Magic will be holding
their Fan Appreciation Night. Chicago
qualified for the playoffs with a victory Sunday against the Heat in Miami,
but their position will be determined by their final two games. Chicago
hopes to guard against a letdown. The Bulls have won eight of their past 10
games, making a nice run despite some key injuries. Chicago
leads the season with Orlando 2-1.

Cavaliers-Celtics

Akron Beacon Journal

Cavs coach Mike Brown is committed to resting his front-line
players, with the exception of Hughes, this week. With the luxury of having
their playoff situation settled, Brown said he will continue to pull his
starters in the fourth quarter and is considering sitting James for an entire
game against the Boston Celtics tonight or the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday.

Pistons-Bucks

Wisconsin State
Journal

The Pistons come to the Bradley Center tonight seemingly
on cruise control with the NBA’s best record at (64-16), a first-round date
with a playoff opponent still to be determined and almost a lock on home-court
advantage all the way through to the final round if they should make it that
far. The Bucks don’t have that luxury, even though they qualified for the
playoffs Saturday night despite an embarrassing loss to the Atlanta Hawks at
the Bradley Center.
That loss combined with Philadelphia’s
loss to Orlando allowed Milwaukee
to back into a playoff berth. But that loss put a major crimp in the Bucks’
hopes of finishing fifth in the Eastern Conference, which would allow them to
face fellow Central Division member Cleveland in the best-of-seven first round.
The only option that remains for Milwaukee
is to win its final two games of the season against the Pistons and at Washington
Tuesday night and see how everything else works out in the down-to-the-wire
race with Indiana and Wizards for the fifth spot.

Monday Handicapper’s Sampler

HEADLINE: Stevie Vincent Level 5
play.  Knockout sports biggest story in
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·       
Veteran handicapping consultant but
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has already drawn comparisons to the all-time Vegas legends Pete Axthelm, Joe Duffy, Bob Martin, Jimmy the Greek and Roxy Roxborough.
We pass along his Level 5 plays.
He has a Level 5 play in the NBA

·       
Bill Tanner is the No. 1 college and NBA
handicapper combined since 1995. Stats are out of 620 services monitored,
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basketball crazed state of Indiana
and his Platinum Plays in hoops hit around 62 percent.  He also hits above 60 percent in college
football with “Plats”.    He is on a
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Plats go Monday

·       
No. 1 totals MLB service this year after
finishing No. 3 last year has two MLB
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 stats are out of 620
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Monday, April 17,
2006
 

 

America’s
greatest sports service the Dream Team
at Godspicks.com has a
night MLB Wise Guy (NL Chalk of the Week-yet to lose) plus night MLB and NBA
Majors
to go with the Patriot’s Day winner you got earlier. 

With the NHL and NBA playoffs about to start, lock into at
least our two month package now and get the plays the split second we release
them. The ENTIRE card  is just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  Alternate
forms of payment
are available
.
Godspicks is proud to be part of the Handicapper’s Sampler rundown
of which sports services are hot and who has the big play at JoeDuffy.net Godspicks
will again have the best NHL playoff winners in 2006.

Wise Guy plays from Godspicks are widely considered to be
the biggest play in the handicapping abyss. Remember you can buy even the daily
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#

4-17-06

VINCENT IS ON A 26-3 RUN!!!!!

FORENSIC HANDICAPPER STEVIE VINCENT HAS WON 8 OF THE 9
DAYS SINCE HE STARTED HIS HISTORIC SITE!! LEVEL 5 PLAYS ARE 16-1. 8 WERE
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STEVIE HAS A LEVEL 5 PLAY ON MONDAY. STEVIE ALSO HAS LEVEL
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Knockout picks is proud to be part of the Handicapper’s
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Sunday Sports Service Rundown

Sunday, April 16,
2006

America’s
greatest sports service the Dream Team
at Godspicks.com  has
LATE STEAM: a total of six MLB small favorites or underdogs as we build on
another stellar start to MLB.  Go 6-0 (actually better thanks to underdog
math) Sunday.

The ENTIRE card  is just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
  Godspicks is proud to be part of the Handicapper’s Sampler rundown
of which sports services are hot and who has the big play at JoeDuffy.net Godspicks
will again have the best NHL playoff winners in 2006.

Don’t forget our three-day pass for $45 or our four-day
package at a huge discount of $55.  You can always pre-buy our plays.  That way the plays are emailed to you the
split second we are done or you can just use your password which is activated
all day. Joe Duffy is the first and only person to earn the title of Master Handicapper. The Wise Guy moves
originate here.

#

Despite a start that is the talk of the industry, Stevie
Vincent sacrificed tens of thousands in sales and likely gambling winnings to
take Easter Sunday off.  Knockout Picks
returns Monday

#

HEADLINE: Highly ranked NBA sports service
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Game of the Year on the same side!

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is proud to be featured daily on the Handicapper’s Sampler http://www.joeduffy.net/blog/todays_top_sports_service_information/  Because the Alliance purchases all the top
sports service plays, generally 60-90 tout “Game of the Year” plays are good
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Every period you
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service behind every selections is hitting better than
60-65 percent. POWERFUL is the only way to describe having
direct access to all the nation’s premier sports services.

This is your top sports service report for Sunday, April 16, 2006

·        
Highly ranked NBA sports service
hit their 10th consecutive NBA Game of the Year last night on
Memphis. For only
the 13th time in 24 years, two Top 15 NBA services have their NBA Game of the Year on the same
side.  All 12 previous have hit.  It’s unlucky No. 13 for the sportsbooks

·       
Staff Purchase Play, this is when we pay a
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·       
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Sunday Godspicks On Fire

Sunday, April 16, 2006

America’s
greatest sports service the Dream Team
at Godspicks.com, already in the midst of another typical winning MLB season
has four baseball winners, all dogs and small favorites, on our early report.
Late steam is inclusive in the price which is sent upon completion later in the
morning.

The ENTIRE card  is just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
  Godspicks is proud to be part of the Handicapper’s
Sampler
rundown of which sports services are hot and who has the big play
at JoeDuffy.net Godspicks will again have the best NHL
playoff winners in 2006.

NBA

CHICAGO +4’ Miami

The Bulls are
sizzling at 8-1 their last 9 SU.  They’ve
won four straight road games.
This is a top dichotomous ATS and SU
game.  We discount 98 percent of trends,
but this has proven to be the exception to the rule. Explained in our articles
around the Net, basically if a team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record
or visa versa, you ride for that to continue as it is the sign of which teams
are most under or overvalued.

Miami is 13-7 their last 20 SU but 6-14 ATS. That includes 9-3 and 4-8 at
home during that span.
The Heat has clinched the No. 2 seed in the East
and will rest players in preparation for next weekend’s playoffs.

Saturday Trends, News and Notes

Saturday, April 15,
2006

America’s greatest sports service the Dream Team at Godspicks.com  is dominant in every sport, but baseball
continues to be a Godseysend.  We are 26-15 but that’s with mostly dogs as
the dog winners outnumber the chalk losers 13-3.  In fact with Wise Guy plays it’s 10-3 with
all dogs including four Dandy Dog winners. Dandy dogs are dogs of 140 or more
in MLB.

Today we have two Wise Guy plays including a Dandy Dog and
a Major.  It’s 3-0 from The Center of the
Handicapping Universe Godspicks.com. The ENTIRE card  is just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
  Godspicks is proud to be part of the Handicapper’s
Sampler
rundown of which sports services are hot and who has the big play
at JoeDuffy.net

NBA

All trends are ATS

·       
Houston-Memphis series has gone over 9-of-11

·       
Denver
is 11-4 at home to Sacramento

 

MLB

·       
The Cubs are 0-2 to Zach Duke whose ERA is 0.56
to them

·       
Mets are 10-3 to Ohka

·       
Toronto
is 1-5 to Buehrle

 

NBA

Here are news and notes from Godspicks.com private
clipboard.  They are compiled from
hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. Get advanced news and
notes ready for opening lines at blog on our home
page. 

Pacers-Bobcats

Indy Star

Three games and three wins later, the Pacers’ magic number
to clinch their ninth straight playoff berth is down to one after they beat a
short-handed Minnesota Timberwolves squad 89-77 at
the Fieldhouse on Friday night.

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