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NFL Free Picks, Week 8 From #1 NFL Betting Expert

Free picks from Joe Duffy, bet at NFL live lines. College Football Total of the Year continues historic run for the great Joe Duffy. We have NFL Wise Guy as well.  Get the picks now

Redskins at Vikings (-16,42)

  • Go with much worse spread team in terms of margin of cover is 171-105-11 including 7-1 off shutout (Washington)
  • Road underdogs off getting shutout are 45-27 (Washington)
  • But big favorites to bad teams in games expected to be low scoring on Thursday nights are 13-0 (Minnesota)
  • Favorites in short week 105-57-5 under specific circumstances that apply today (Minnesota)
  • Case Keenum vs. Kirk Cousins, not real handicapping value
  • Skins RB Adrian Peterson probable with low ankle sprain
  • Skins interim coach Bill Callahan is OL guru and has put emphasis on power running game
  • Cousins off a good game will come out flat on short week
  • Total jumped from 40-42, so now outside angle where road favorites of 15 or more, total 41.5 or less are 30-11-1
    • At 42, it’s 32-14

The pick: UNDER 7.5 first quarter

Seahawks (-3.5,54) at Falcons

  • Off board in a lot of areas with Ryan questionable and Falcons just traded Mohamed Sanu
  • Ito Smith out
  • Seattle 3-0 SU road, 2-2 home sets up angle where road teams that have been much better on road 125-84-4 (Seattle)
  • Worse turnover team is 526-400-28 (Atlanta)
    • Turnovers correctable and good fortune
  • Atlanta 1-6 ats (league worst) by -10.3 points per game, second worst in league
  • Terrible ats teams under specific circumstances that apply today 86-52-5 (Atlanta)
  • Home underdogs of 3.5 or more off blowout loss 79-52-3 (Atlanta)
  • Mountain or Center teams at 1 ET 117-78-3 at 60 percent (Atlanta)

The pick: Seattle laying -4 or less

Panthers at 49ers (-5.5, 41.5)

  • Premium total
  • 49ers 4-2 ats with league-leading 12.7 margin of cover
  • Carolina 4-2 by +5.2
  • Teams in week 8 or later covering by an average of 11.5 or more 22-12 (49ers)
    • 72.2 percent at home
  • San Francisco top under team in NFL, under 5-1 by -9.6 points per game
    • Teams under by 8.5 or more in week 7 or later, go over 62-35
  • San Francisco worst SoS in NFC
  • San Francisco getting .2 yards per rush and .5 yards per pass attempt above what opponent normally allows
  • Niners allow 4.1 yards per carry teams normally getting 3.9
  • All okay, but not for 6-0 SU team
  • Carolina is better with Kyle Allen
  • Fading teams that gave up a combined 15 or less last three games is 16-6-1 ats including 9-1 road (Carolina)

The pick: Carolina +5.5