OffshoreInsiders Handicapping Blog » Tim Donaghy

Controversies and Scandals Have Lessons in Handicapping

Mike Godsey — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 20:24:55 +0000

Recently sports have seen minor controversies to major
scandals that all have direct or indirect handicapping lessons. In short, they
can be summed up in what we preach time and time again. style='mso-spacerun:yes'> The key to successful sports betting is
getting an edge as often as possible.

This is exactly why coaches are notoriously secretive
about the injury status of key players and also why we sports bettors exercise
every source to get the accurate lowdown.

Coaches believe the more he knows about the injury status
of his and his opponent’s key players, the more of an edge his team will get.
It’s the same way with gamblers against their sportsbook opponent.

It’s precisely the reason the now infamous scandals of
disgraced NBA referee Tim Donaghy and likely soon-to-be former Texas class=GramE>A&M football coach Dennis Franchione are so significant.
Investing is sports scores is much like Wall Street betting. “Inside
information” that coaches and refs have access to is the sports broker’s
version of insider trading.

So is the lesson for the sports gambler that if we don’t
get the state’s evidence directly from a coach or referee that we are out of
luck? The answer is absolutely not. “Inside” information is far from the only
way to get the upper hand on betting the odds.

A lot of valuable insight is out there. Just because
information is public does not mean it’s widely circulated. style='mso-spacerun:yes'>

So often the keenest intelligence comes to light after the
odds have been posted, often somewhat limiting how sportsbooks can act in
response. We’ve long touted Google News as our favorite aggregator of sports
betting information such as injuries, expert analysis on how teams match up,
motivation recognition and other very useful bullet points.

However, Topix and ESPN have also teamed up to try to
compete with Google News. Replacing their “Sitelines” section, ESPN has
partnered with Topix to create “ESPN local”. This new feature aggregates
articles of interest to the sports fan and gambler. That being said, Google
News still reigns supreme, but the ESPN/Topix synergy has potential for the
handicapper.

We move on to a minor controversy, but certainly an
example of a coach pulling out all the stops to get the leg up on the
competition or more accurately to counter the eminence of their foe.

Georgia
finally ended Florida’s series
domination in college football. In said game, the Bulldogs had a choreographed
excessive celebration penalty after their first touchdown. Head coach Mark
Richt admitted he told the team, “I expect you guys to celebrate to the point
where the official will throw a flag for excessive celebration.”

Richt said his instructions were intended to fire up his
team because he felt they needed to play with more passion. He did not
specifically verify, but we strongly suspect that the fact that Florida
had won 15 of the previous 17 meetings was motivational factor No. 1.

The handicapping ramifications are to never underestimate
the importance of emotion and the psychology of sports. Of course most players
on both Florida and Georgia
were being potty trained when the domination started. Each team has gone
through several coaching changes during the era. Despite all that, clearly
Richt knew that a well publicized one-sided rivalry leads to swagger from one
team and a “culture of losing” from the other.

Sports bettors should not completely disregard historical
data even if the period precedes every player and coach who will affect that
outcome of the game being handicapped. I honestly believe if Georgia
had the 15-2 series edge, Richt would never have felt the need to manufacture boastfulness
and confidence.

Then there was the short-lived, though periodic
speculation about the Indianapolis Colts piping in crowd noise during home
games. For our purposes, the veracity of these accusations is not as relevant
as the fact that there is a reason why opponents care if the Colts are bending
rules.

Again, crowd noise can give a home team—we will say it
again—“the edge”. Few coaches or players will dispute the affect of the “12^th
man” in football or the “6^th man” in basketball.

This is why we love it when we read that a team has for
example “only the third sellout in two years” or that the small town mayor held
a noon pep rally the day of a big
game.

Not that a game or pointspread is necessarily going to be
affected by a pep rally, but such seemingly innocuous events are symptoms of
how significant a specific game is and how passionate the hometown crowd is going
to be.

In college, we always keep an eye out for when the
non-elite college basketball teams are playing home games while the student
body is on winter break. The level of home court and home field advantage is
fluid and will vary game-to-game, especially with lower profile schools where
sellouts are far from a given.

What the average gambler takes for granted, the sharp
player yearns for. No edge is too banal for smart money players. Best of all, one
need not always have access to a private booster newsletter or collude with a
rogue official. So often the most indispensable information to the gambler can
be in the fourth paragraph of a squad’s hometown newspaper or within the official
team press release.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at href="http://www.godstips.com/">www.GodsTips.com style='mso-spacerun:yes'> He is former General Manager of the
Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com,
the premier hub of world-class handicappers and free sports betting
information.

Rampant Speculation About Donaghygate

Mike Godsey — Sat, 18 Aug 2007 02:28:57 +0000

Everyone, this author included, has theories on the precise details of how rebel NBA ref Tim Donaghy may have affected the outcome of games in which he officiated. Theories by definition are conjecture. They need only be plausible using the known facts. Even reasonable suppositions may not prove to be 100 percent correct.

There are many rational hypotheses on the scandal and then again, there is other guesswork that can easily have holes poked through it. There are a small number of postulators who, to their credit, have been able to gravy train this scandal into purporting themselves as gambling experts. Unfortunately, to the more seasoned and authentic authorities in sports gambling, too often the notions of the squeakier wheels may get the oil even if the views rarely hold water.

At the very least the more seasoned are much less apt to scream proof in the crowded theatre of nattering nabobs. The USA Today’s Danny Sheridan correctly observes, “You can make all kind of cases with numbers. But if you have the exact games, then it’s like black and white.”

As an example, an “expert” often quoted on ESPN.com asserts that 13 games last year in which Donaghy officiated were within one-point of the spread. Does ESPN use a fact checker? According the game log as published on that same ESPN.com, the number is actually 11, not 13. But fudging the number by more than 18 percent makes a much sexier story.

Thanks for proving the oddsmakers are adept, damn savvy in fact. Any two bit gambler was aware of this bombshell. To embellish on a line from the Simpson’s, it seems to me a rather obvious find from a rather mediocre genius. This discovery was classic dog bites man though some gullible media saps bought it hook, line and sinker as man bites dog.

If even a higher percentage of games were going down to the pointspread wire with Donaghy, this would be evidence that he likely did not, repeat not affect the outcome. How anyone could imply the opposite is beyond me.

However, if a forensic statistician found that Donaghy had the highest percentage of games that were not even close to the pointspread, that would be a potential straw in the wind unlike the polar opposite (non) finding.

But wait, the “betting expert” has all his bases covered. He found that in games Donaghy officiated in 2007, the average number of points was 13 point higher than the average posted total.

So the “smoking gun” is too many games were too close to the pointspread, but then again, the other smoking gun is that too many over/unders were not close to the pointspread. The ghost of Joe McCarthy lives and the legacy of Mike Nifong thrive.

The so-called gambling experts seem to be missing the point, though cynics will tell you the only point is that the worst publicity is no publicity for wannabes. After all, no purported conclusive evidence means no real story and no media exposure.

Granted, we still do not know every detail, and perhaps never will regarding the Tim Donaghy scandal. However, from what we have seen so far, it appears point shaving was likely not as commonplace and may not even be part of the criminal allegations against him.

We do know for a fact that he supplied “inside information”. As a gambler who handicaps games legitimately, I can assure you that we are always, always looking for an “edge”—any and all major advantages—over the long-run. Getting “inside information” does not mean we bet the mortgage on a particular sporting event, but it can increase our long-term winning percentage.

Examples are the injury status of a key player. Shaquille O’Neal, Dwayne Wade and Pau Gasol are instances of star players whose game time status was often uncertain to the gambler. However, Donaghy would have access to unpublished injury information, the type of privy data that would give a gambler a huge upper hand.

As another example, perhaps a team was playing five contests in seven nights and their flight into town was delayed four hours, they got to town at 11:00 A.M. on game day. Knowing when situations like this occur would also provide bettors with a huge edge.

Simply “if”, any player, coach or ref were involved in point shaving, it is highly doubtful if his chicanery would result in the final scores being disproportionately close to the spread. It would be quite the opposite.

So of the two bodies of evidence thrown against the wall by the err “betting expert,” one that says too many games were close to the number and the other that says too many games were not close to the number, the latter is much more likely to stick.

My educated estimation, based on what I heard so far, is that Donaghy supplied the gamblers version of “insider trading” as illustrated above. Game day unpublished information would be the holy grail for sharp players, and it appears that is exactly what Donaghy supplied.

When the specific contests that Donaghy bet on comes out, of course an inordinate percentage will be in matches he officiated. The Johnny-come-lately experts will scream there is the damning evidence they knew was coming.

Not so fast. Of course Donaghy is going to have access to inside information on a game when he’s already on site. How can he do undercover work on a matchup that is 400 miles from his own two eyes and ears?

While even those of us who refuse to jump to rash conclusions will appropriately muse, “How could he possibly be objective in a game in which he has five dimes riding?” this is far from proof that he consciously influenced the outcome.

Don’t get me wrong, Donaghy is clearly guilty of going well over the line of any and all codes of conduct, but I am quite confident those hell bent in proving a made-for-television conspiracy will only continue to make leaps of faith that may not be backed by the evidence. A scenario in which he acquired inside information on games other those he was to officiate would be a shocking turn of events to the true “betting experts”.

Reasonable speculation is human nature. Salacious gossip backed merely by fuzzy math is irresponsible. ESPN.com proves to be the worldwide leader in tittle-tattle.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com He has written hundreds of articles on sports gaming, published on many of the top websites and in leading publications around the world and has been an expert guest on several national radio shows including Sporting News Network.

God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 25

Mike Godsey — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 18:24:44 +0000

This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge
of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.

Does the Commissioner Want to Send a Stern
Message?

Though David Stern was non-committal on how the referee
Tim Donaghy betting scandal would affect Las Vegas’
bid to get an NBA team, most experts agree the fiasco
will be the death knell for Sin City’s
bid for a franchise.

Stern has admitted it is his understanding the bets were
placed illegally and not through Vegas. If Stern were genuine about stopping
point-shaving, he would ban NBA games being played in cities where illegal class=GramE>sports betting is rampant: Philadelphia,
New York and Boston.
Better yet, Stern could campaign for complete legalization, where a legitimate
activity need not be forced underground and into the underworld.

Methinks Stern will choose the hypocritical road.

Sharpie: 5 Inning Lines the Best Prop Play

Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com
is the top expert when it comes to evaluating pitchers. Vincent says starting
pitching is the one certainty because gamblers can specify pitchers, thus it is
the easiest to exploit proposition bet.

“We can’t specify a bet is cancelled if a clean-up hitter
is scratched. We don’t know beyond
reproach how the pinch hitter/relief pitcher chess game will transpire. But we
do know who the starting pitchers will be.”

He elaborates that pinch hitters and the bullpen can
determine full-game bets, but starting pitching is the primary decider on five-inning
wagers.

Some Things Are Worth Repeating

I’ve authored my share of articles on preseason betting
strategy. Though we refine strategies as the fluid art of handicapping
dictates, one truth that remains indisputable is that the Internet has been most
invaluable during the NFL preseason.

Accurate quarterback and key player rotations,
motivational information and other key intel
are available for the adept Internet surfer.
Best of all, more precise lowdown evolves after sportsbooks post odds,
putting the advantage to the gambler.

Preseason football is a boon to the true sharp player
because it is a goldmine for so-called “intangible” information.

Futures Bet

The most popular futures bet is on who will win the Super
Bowl. We say the San Diego Chargers. style='mso-spacerun:yes'> Only baseball’s Bobby Cox and perhaps the
NBA’s George Karl have consistently done less with more in the postseason than
disposed Bolt coach Marty Schottenheimer. A clear case of addition by
subtraction, we expect new coach Norv Turner to take
the already loaded Chargers to the Promised Land.

Joe Duffy of GodsTips.com
, the “NFL Specialist” has for the first time ever, by popular request,
full-season football-only packages. They are available at OffshoreInsiders.com