Texans-Chiefs | OffshoreInsiders Handicapping Blog

The Houston Texans take on the Kansas City Chiefs to open the 2020 NFL season.

Odds: Kansas City is laying -9 with a total of 54.5 at Bovada live NFL lines.

Public betting percentages: 57 percent of bettors and 69 percent of cash is on Kansas City with 52 percent of tickets on over, but 57 percent of money on the under. This implies some sharp money on the under.

Power ratings: Massey Ratings projects a 28-23 Chiefs victory.

Computer simulations ATS: One of our simulation programs has Kansas City covering 51.9 percent of the time, Houston 46.3 with the remaining pushes. Another of our simulators has the Chiefs winning ats 54 percent.

Computer simulations OU: Our programs are split on the total with one having 60 percent going under, with the other saying over 52.3-44.9 to the over, the remaining percentage pushing.

Against the spread trends: Houston 2-8 Thursdays. Kansas City is 7-0-1 favorites, 23-9-1 to AFC. Road team is 9-3 in the series.

Over-under trends: Houston under 11-5 grass.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Nobody has dominated any sport the way Joe Duffy has the NFL for decades. The NFL Specialist has just unleashed seven NFL winner led by Wise Guy side. College football winner is also posted at OffshoreInsiders.com

NFL conference semi-final action and free picks from Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com

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Titans-Ravens

When big underdog playoff team has at least two more loss as a favorite 58-23-2 (Titans)
Going against teams with a margin of +11.5 or better is 24-9 in postseason (Titans)
Tannehill completed more than 70% of his passes for 2,742 yards during his 11 regular-season games. He had 22 touchdown passes and four rushing TDs while throwing only six interceptions. In six of his last seven regular-season games, he had a passer rating of 130.8 or better
Both teams will run with Henry and Jackson
Jackson two weeks off

The pick: UNDER 47

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Texans-Chiefs

Playoff home teams off bye and win under specific circumstances that apply today a go-against of 14-1 (Tennessee)
Big home favorites despite splits saying they are better on the road is 104-69-3 (Kansas)
Teams in playoff revenge of same-season loss is 67-48 including 6-0 laying 9 or more winning by an average of 32.5-16
- Overall revenge however 14-16-2 since 2014
Teams off a playoff comeback win after trailing by 14 or more are a fade of 56-47 (Kansas City)
Reid tends to be more aggressive early

The pick: OVER 9.5 first quarter

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Two NFL Wise Guys Saturday. Sunday, two NFL Majors. Sunday, National Championship side all at OffshoreInsiders.com