Tag Archives: NBA betting

Sportsbook Breaks Down NBA Home-court Advantage in Bubble

In basketball, home-court advantage is one of these key elements, but this year’s NBA Playoffs poses a rare occurrence where teams are competing inside a bubble that removes the advantages of playing at home such as fans, familiar environments and officiating tendencies.

And while this scenario puts every team on an even playing “field,” the loss of home-court advantage will be greater for some teams, which could ultimately impact the outcomes of games and series.

Odds suggest the league average for home-court advantage is around 2 points, but there are two teams that hold greater values simply because of topography.

The Nuggets and Jazz play at high altitudes, which affords them an added advantage against opponents not accustomed to conditioning in thinner air. Over the last three (full) regular seasons, Denver and Utah have combined to go 173-73 on their home floors.

Playoff teams that lose the most without home-court advantage

  1. Nuggets
  2. Jazz

Playoff teams that lose the least without home-court advantage

  1. Lakers
  2. Thunder
  3. Bucks

(Home-court advantage values are indicated below for each First Round matchup with two comparing sets of odds: Current odds inside the bubble and projected odds if the series were played at the home team venue.)

It may be surprising to see the Lakers and Bucks, two of the Finals favorites this year, with the least adjustment to their odds from bubble to home. But traditionally, small-market teams like Milwaukee and Oklahoma City don’t carry as much home-court advantage weight as teams in larger cities.

In the Lakers’ case, the contingency that fills STAPLES Arena isn’t one that opponents fear. Lakers home games are a spectacle, a show, a can’t-miss experience, but they don’t create an environment that enhances every element of home-court advantage (you’ll notice that the Clippers have a higher home-court value than their L.A. counterpart due to the fan base).

This article is courtesy of SportsBetting one of the top sportsbooks as vetted by OffshoreInsiders.com

Daily Sports Gambling Update: Basketball, Hockey, Baseball

Will Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and the suddenly dangerous Portland Trail Blazers make Charles Barkley’s prediction of winning the west come true? For the full article: 2019 NBA Playoffs Conference Finals Odds, Preview & Predictions

The Carolina Hurricanes have been no match for the Boston Bruins thus far in the NHL’s Eastern Conference Finals. Will that change in Game 3 on Tuesday night as the series shifts to Raleigh? The game is a pick’em on the NHL betting lines. The full article here: Bruins vs Hurricanes 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs Odds & Game 3 Analysis

The Golden State Warriors probably were thrilled that they would be facing the Portland Trail Blazers in the Western Conference Finals instead of the Denver Nuggets. After all, the Warriors have won 26 of the last 34 meetings, both in the regular season and playoffs against the Trail Blazers. They are solid favorites on the NBA Playoffs odds for Tuesday’s Game 1 in Oakland. For the rest of the article: Blazers vs Warriors Western Conference Finals Odds & Pick for Game 1

After getting a much-needed victory in the series opener on Monday, the Seattle Mariners will look to double up on their AL West division rivals when they host the Oakland Athletics in Game 2 of a three-game set on Tuesday night. Now, let’s find out which team is offering the best value in this matchup. Read the rest of the article: Athletics vs Mariners MLB Odds, Game Preview & Expert Pick

The Chicago Cubs look to expand their lead atop the NL Central on Tuesday night when they open a series at the last-place Cincinnati Reds. The Cubbies are MLB betting favorites behind red-hot pitcher Kyle Hendricks. The full article: How to Bet Cubs vs Reds MLB Spread & Expert Prediction

The Los Angeles Dodgers will look to stay hot when they host the San Diego Padres in the opener of a three-game set on Tuesday night. With L.A. looking to extend its winning ways and the Padres looking to find the consistency that has eluded them all season long, let’s find out where the best value lies in this NL West battle. The full article here: Padres vs Dodgers MLB Lines, Betting Analysis & Prediction

The Minnesota Twins will be looking to bounce back from a loss in their series opener when they host the visiting Los Angeles Angels in the second game of a three-game set on Tuesday night. With L.A. hot and Minnesota looking to snap out of a modest skid, let’s find out which one of these AL playoff hopefuls is offering the best value in this affair. Read the rest of the article: How to Bet on Angels vs Twins MLB Spread & Game Preview

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Daily Sports Gambling Update: Basketball, Baseball, Hockey

The Philadelphia 76ers host the Toronto Raptors in Game 6 on Thursday night with a lot at stake. Toronto has a 3-2 lead in the series. A Philadelphia loss and the 76ers go home for the rest of the playoffs. Check out NBA Playoff betting odds, analysis, and a free pick for Raptors-76ers Game 6! For the full article: Raptors vs 76ers NBA Playoffs Game 6 Odds, Preview & Prediction

The Portland Trail Blazers hope to even their best-of-seven series versus the Denver Nuggets on Thursday, May 9. Portland battles Denver at home down 2-3 in the series. Can the Trail Blazers pick it up enough to stave off elimination? Keep reading for NBA Playoff odds, analysis, and a free pick for Nuggets-Trail Blazers Game 6! Read the full article: Nuggets vs Trail Blazers NBA Playoffs Game 6 Lines, Analysis & Prediction

It’s the conclusion of an interleague series from Oakland on Thursday afternoon, meaning the Cincinnati Reds will again be adding the designated hitter in the AL park. However, the Athletics are favored on the MLB betting lines behind Chris Bassitt. For the full article: Reds vs Athletics MLB Odds, Preview & Prediction

The 2019 Stanley Cup Eastern Conference Finals and Western Conference Finals are set. In the Eastern Conference, the Boston Bruins battle the surprise Carolina Hurricanes. In the West, the St. Louis Blues takes on the San Jose Sharks. Check out updated Stanley Cup odds, previews of each series, and predictions! Read the rest of the article here: Updated 2019 Stanley Cup Odds, Conference Finals Preview & Predictions

For the first time this season, the Pittsburgh Pirates visit the NL Central rival St. Louis Cardinals, with Game 1 on Thursday night. Behind the inconsistent Michael Wacha, the Cards are MLB odds favorites in the opener. The full article: How to Bet Pirates vs Cardinals MLB Spread & Expert Pick

One of the most heated rivalries in the American League these days is when the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros meet – even though it seems one team is usually good that season and one isn’t. They open a set in Houston on Thursday night with the Astros solid favorites on the MLB betting lines. The rest of the article: Rangers vs Astros MLB Week 6 Lines & Game Analysis

 

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MLB injuries

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    • .267 with 2 HR, 10 RBI

Best sports bets

Free Sunday NBA Pick and Inside Info Bullet Points

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Orlando-Toronto

  • Magic won on Dec. 28 116-87. Big home favorites in same-season revenge of a blowout loss 728-605-34.
  • Also Magic went into the break red-hot but lost first game out of break. Teams that had a long winning snap after a long break at 60.9 percent go-against.
  • Toronto dichotomous SU and AGAINST THE SPREAD team 44-16 SU but 26-32 to number 

Free pick: TORONTO -9 at Bovada

LA Clippers-Denver

  • Denver opened at -7.5 but shot up to -9
  • Trey Lyles remains out for Denver
    • 9.2 points per game, 4.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists
  • Gary Harris is back for Denver after missing seven games playing 21 minutes Friday
    • 14.6 points per game, 3 rebounds and 2.7 assists

San Antonio-New York

  • Road favorites or small dogs on massive scoring streaks 554-429
  • Knicks banged up
  • Knicks DeAndre Jordan doubtful
    • 11.1 points, 13.5 rebunds
    • Michell Robinson likely starter
  • Frank Ntilikina (Nil-La-Keen-a) out for Knicks 5.9 points per game, 2.8 assists in more than 21 minutes
    • Very unselfish player
    • Mason Plumlee has picked up slack in his absence

Friday Night NBA Inside Betting Information For Gamblers

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Pacers-Knicks

  • Since 2016 really bad teams a good bet against teams that are not horrible to tune of 326-275-17 (Knicks)
  • Pacers playing fifth straight road game
  • Knicks C Enes Kanter game-time decision
    • Averages 14.4 points per game, 11 rebounds

Lakers-Jazz

  • King James is out
  • Point of diminishing return though on two-game win streak but high elevation of Salt Lake
  • Fading big dogs on two-game or more winning streaks is 900-770

Bucks-Wizards

  • Substantially worse against the spread team 1761-1540-60
  • Best against the spread versus second worst
  • Difference is 6.3 or more worse teams is 1094-912 (Wizards)
  • Bucks 23-15 this season, far and away league best +3.6
  • Washington 17-25 -2.9

Hawks-Sixers

  • Since 2016 really bad teams a good bet against teams that are not horrible to tune of 326-275-17 (Hawks)
  • Road team much worse on road than home team at home 52.7 percent

Nets-Raptors

  • Toronto dichotomous SU and ATS team
    • 31-12 SU, 17-4 at home, but 19-23 against the spread, 0-12 at home

Cavs-Rockets

  • Since 2016 really bad teams a good bet against teams that are not horrible to tune of 326-275-17 (Cavs)
  • Rockets will without Chris Paul
  • Favorites of 15 or more with a total of 216 or higher 8-1 (Rockets)
  • Cavs 19-23 against the spread with league worst -3 points per game margin

Mavericks-Timberwolves

  • Terrible road teams 1445-1289 on road under specific circumstances that apply today
    • Even better if not getting more than 11.5

Hornets-Trail Blazers

  • Hornets 4th game in 6 game road trip
  • Away dog off against the spread loss as dog versus an opponent off against the spread win a solid play (Charlotte)

Bulls-Warriors

  • Since 2016 really bad teams a good bet against teams that are not horrible to tune of 326-275-17 (Bulls)
  • Favorites of 15 or more with a total of 216 or higher 8-1 (Warriors)
  • In history of database home favorites of 14 or more with total of 218 or higher 61.2 percent
  • Away dog off against the spread loss as dog versus an opponent off against the spread win a solid play (Bulls)
  • Bulls top under team in NBA going under 25-15 by -5.1

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Critical NBA Betting Information For Tuesday; Truly Must See

We are 20-4 in basketball as Villanova winds down another great season. We are 385-272 since last MLB season with 37 underdog winners including 190, 188,162, 145, 132 this year already! Two NBA winners led by NBA Game of the Month which includes that angle that is 20-1 the last 21. Two late afternoon MLB both after 4:05 ET, then night baseball are up. At least two are Juicy Lucy winners. Previously referred as a Dandy Dog, a Juicy Lucy is either a moneyline underdog or runline favorite in which we get at least +140 juice. We changed the name to reflect it includes runline chalk. Get the picks now

Tuesday, April 3

Raptors vs. Cavaliers

  • Teams with -5 or worse against the spread margin 1652-1447

Pacers vs. Nuggets

  • Pacers fourth straight road game

Hawks vs. Heat

  • Presumed tanking angle 241-173 (Hawks)
    • At least 54 losses 21-6

Blazers vs. Grizzlies

  • Presumed tanking angle 241-173 (Memphis)
    • At least 54 losses 21-6

Bulls vs. Hornets

  • Teams that go over by a combined 5 or more generally an under

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NBA Betting For After the All-Star Break

Here is a sample of the OffshoreInsiders.com
crib sheet: trends and tendencies we look for in sports betting, then
proactively exploit.

Get Healthy Charlotte Please

Anyone who has been a client of ours for years knows how
much we exploit the dichotomous ATS and straight up teams. For those on the
outside looking in, the teams that are most profitable for sharp players are
top shelf teams that often win without covering or bottom dwellers that lose
straight up but are able to cover the spread.

We have isolated the Bobcats as a strong candidate to keep
on our radar screen. It has been a baptism by fire for first-year head coach
Sam Vincent. He has learned from his early missteps, but continues to struggle
with a shorthanded team.

“Leading scorer Gerald Wallace played in only one of the
final six games entering the All-Star break, plus Raymond Felton, Matt Carroll
and Derek Anderson all have bruised knees,” points out Curt Thomas, full-time
NBA handicapper for GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com.

Thanks to their home arena hosting three college
basketball tournaments, Charlotte
plays 15 of 21 games on the road in an upcoming stretch. A horrid 4-18 straight
up on the highway before the break, safe to say they will be getting tons of
points. Thus, they just need to be more competitive to cover. They don’t need
to win outright.

With a coach who has progressed with on the job training,
a team that should, repeat should be healthier, they will be a more competitive
team—the type of team that covers, but remains under the radar because they
keep losing straight up.

Mavericks Go-Against in Three Games in Four
Night Situations

The Mavericks blockbuster trade to get Jason Kidd will be
a classic “step back to take two steps forward” move for the handicappers. The Mavs bench was already thin and they diluted it further to
get the soon-to-be 35 year old legs of Kidd.

Losing DeSagana Diop makes them a smaller team in a conference that has
most of the league’s top big men. The move should help come playoff time, but
we look to fade them against teams with quality big men and in unrested
situations.

However, because of the trade, the public will perceive
them as better and the oddsmakers must oblige.

Hawks and Over

Atlanta is one
of the most underachieving teams in the league. They have two problems:
coaching and point guard. Scratch the latter. Atlanta
got Mike Bibby in a trade with the Kings. With Joe
Johnson, the Hawks have a legitimate 1-2 punch.

The Hawks like to run and they got a necessary cog. We
look for the Hawks to sneak up on the oddsmakers and also have a lot more high
scoring games.

The author, Joe Duffy is part of Dream Team at GodsTips,
the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com. Check
out all the free and premium information for sports betting at OffshoreInsiders.com


Opening Day NBA Betting Notes

Here are sports betting news and notes for opening night
of the NBA

Blazers-Spurs

Portland head
coach Nate McMillan said he will not announce his
starting five until tipoff claiming the media
attention would make it a distraction for the players. They brought in Steve
Blake to compete with incumbent Jarrett Jack.
Most importantly, Martell Webster has a tremendous preseason averaging
17.7 points per game while shooting 58 percent from the field.

Sportsbooks has
the Spurs as a 13.5 point favorite with a total ranging from 189 to 189.5. With
injuries to Jacque Vaughn and Beno Udrih, rookie Darius Washington will be the only point
guard on the Spurs bench.

The Spurs are 19-7 ATS in the head-to-head meeting, with
the home team covering 6-of-8.

Jazz-Warriors

Golden State
is a 3.5 point favorite at BetUs
Sportsbook
with a total of 214.5. Jazz backup small forward Matt Harpring is a game time decision. Because of the California
wildfires causing cancellation of the preseason game to the Lakers, Golden
State
has played once in the last
11 days.

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Rockets-Lakers

The Lakers are without second leader scorer from last year
Lamar Odom.

NewBodog has Houston
as a five point road favorite with a total of 195.5. The Lakers Kobe Bryant is
probable with a sprained right wrist. Houston
has a new coach, the much more offensive minded Rick Adelman.
The series has been close, last year each team won twice, each winning in
overtime in Tinsel Town.

The Lakers have covered 9-of-13 in the series.

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Early Season NBA Betting Crib Sheet

As is the case in all sports, everyone and their sister
are doing NBA season previews. This is very much true even with those in the
handicapping industry. From a spread bettor’s standpoint, these forecasts can
have little value.

As we point out similar examples in every sport, San
Antonio
could have the best record in the NBA and Atlanta
could have the worst. Yet it’s still
conceivable that the Hawks could have a better spread record.

Being right about projected divisional standings assures
little in spread betting. Just imagine
the gambling bloodbath when such predictions are wrong.

This year’s NFL is an aberration where the two of the
three teams widely considered being the best in the NFL before the year
started—Indianapolis and New
England
—also have great spread records. How quickly we forget the
Chargers were among the big three preseason favorites, though we know they will
be heard from. But let us get back to the NBA.

Elite handicappers look for fluid tendencies rather than
handicapping an entire season before it starts. This is a big reason why we
minimize futures bets and even playoff series bets, to eliminate the danger of
being even subconsciously biased in our day to day soothsaying.

At OffshoreInsiders.com,
we compile pages of notes for our betting “cheat sheets” on every
team, updated daily. So here are some highlights of early tendencies we are
looking for in our every day NBA handicapping:

Golden State: “Predictably Unpredictable”

One of our many Golden Rules of sports handicapping is
that square players avoid erratic teams, sharp players love them. In short, the
angle is that we bet against such teams the hotter and bigger favorite they are
and wager on them the colder and bigger underdog they become.

Yes, professional gamblers know there are many situations
to go with horrible, slumping teams and go against elite teams during their
winning streak. Why will the Warriors be a team squares hate and sharpies love?

Well, yet another Golden Rule that has made you and us a
fortune this college football season: it’s easier to be the hunter than the
hunted. Golden State
enters the year as a chic team fresh off a 16-5 straight up run to close out
the regular season, followed by the historic upset of Dallas.

Golden State
is a high flying, up-tempo team that lives off the three-point shot. Last year
they led the league in three-point attempts and their average went up after the
Jan. 16 trade in which they acquired Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington.

Riding the hot hand, they shot the three-pointer even more
in the playoffs, averaging a stunning 31 attempts per game in the post-season
compared to 23.4 attempts before the aforesaid trade. This is even more
significant because defenses tighten and the pace slows in the postseason.

This formula means they will look like a lottery team one
night and a championship contender the next night. Perhaps it’s the Golden
(State) Rule. Watch them drive 90 percent of gamblers nuts, yet be “Golden”
going both for and against for wiseguy gamblers, depending on the situation.

Grizzlies Built to Improve as the Year Goes
On

Memphis had
the worst record in the NBA last year, but they have a fresh coach, new GM, and
a plethora of new to the job players.

And we do mean “new”. Their coach Mark Iavaroni has his
first head coaching job. Other than Damon Stoudamire, the average player has
less than three years NBA experience. They will be better in January and
February than in November. Best of all, their early season struggles will lower
their value with the offshore and Vegas sportsbooks just in time for them to
improve.

Look for us to ride them as huge underdogs after their
first 15-20 games of abysmal play. We eye them as one of the top dichotomous
ATS and SU squads. Again, the script and
a successful evergreen one at that: we discount 98 percent of trends, but this
has proven to be the exception to the rule. If a team has a great SU record but
horrid ATS record or visa versa, we bet for that to continue as it is the sign
of which teams are most under or overvalued.

Mavericks an Early Season “Over” Team

Dallas coach
Avery Johnson transformed the Mavericks from a shoot and let God sort them out
team to a squad that thought defense first, second and third. The result was
one of the great postseason failures in sports history.

Johnson learned that having Dirk Nowitzki thinking defense
foremost is the equivalent of trying to make Peyton Manning or Tom Brady a
thousand yard rusher.

Not only will Dallas
correct that blunder, but the focus this offseason was improving their
weakness: their offense against the zone. New assistant coach Paul Westphal was
hired to do just that, among other things focusing on execution rather than
trying to outsmart their opponent with new fangled looks. This is a wise move
considering Dallas has the
offensive weapons. Look for point guard Devin Harris to be among the most
improved players in the league offensively.

Nets Will Come Out of the Gates Quickly

The Nets point guard and leader Jason Kidd is what a point
guard should be. He makes players better
and brings into play his weapons. He has a lot more to work with this year.
Jamaal Magloire, Sean Williams and Malik Allen have been added, Josh Boone is
rapidly improving and Nenad Krstic is back from injury.

The team has gelled in camp and in the preseason. Buoyed
by all this, we look for the Nets to look like world beaters early on.

The author, Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com
and a handicapper for GodsTips, exclusively on that site. Check out
the full-season, weekly, monthly and other winning packages for sports bettors
at OffshoreInsiders.com