The World Series of Poker begins today and the betting odds give investors sundry opportunities. Most of the key action for poker handicappers will commence in mid-to-late June.

One can ante on whether or not Phil Helmuth gets his 12^th bracelet at the WSOP. Sports bettors can also wager whether or not Doyle Brunson or Johnny Chan will be awarded their 11^th bracelet. But NewBodog allows the interesting proposition bet of one or the other, neither, or both getting the bracelet.

Event 45 is the $50,000 buy in HORSE event. Which player will last the longest? Daniel Negreanu, Barry Greenstein, and Phil Ivey are the co-favorites at 9/2. The next group to have the wining poker strategy at 6/1 is Doyle Brunson, Patrik Antonius, Allen Cunningham, and Freddy Deeb. Coming up the rear, Eli Elerza, David Williams, and Chris Ferguson are all at 15/2.

Which celebrity poker player will win the most money in Event 54? James Woods, Jennifer Tilly, Yevgeny Kafelnikov, and Shannon Elizabeth are the favorites at 5/1. Long forgotten Boris Becker, Don Cheadle, Ben Affleck, and Norm McDonald are 9/1.

Odds are also posted on Tobey McGuire, Ray Romano, Jason Alexander, Montel Williams, Brad Garrett, Sully Erna, Jose Conseco, Lennox Lewis, Hank Azaria and Penn Gillette.

Betting odds on the Sex in the City movie, propositions on the National Spelling Bee and the possibility of an NFL lockout are among the possibilities at various sportsbooks.

Here is a sample of the OffshoreInsiders.com crib sheet: trends and tendencies we look for in sports betting, then proactively exploit.

Get Healthy Charlotte Please

Anyone who has been a client of ours for years knows how much we exploit the dichotomous ATS and straight up teams. For those on the outside looking in, the teams that are most profitable for sharp players are top shelf teams that often win without covering or bottom dwellers that lose straight up but are able to cover the spread.

We have isolated the Bobcats as a strong candidate to keep on our radar screen. It has been a baptism by fire for first-year head coach Sam Vincent. He has learned from his early missteps, but continues to struggle with a shorthanded team.

“Leading scorer Gerald Wallace played in only one of the final six games entering the All-Star break, plus Raymond Felton, Matt Carroll and Derek Anderson all have bruised knees,” points out Curt Thomas, full-time NBA handicapper for GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com.

Thanks to their home arena hosting three college basketball tournaments, Charlotte plays 15 of 21 games on the road in an upcoming stretch. A horrid 4-18 straight up on the highway before the break, safe to say they will be getting tons of points. Thus, they just need to be more competitive to cover. They don’t need to win outright.

With a coach who has progressed with on the job training, a team that should, repeat should be healthier, they will be a more competitive team—the type of team that covers, but remains under the radar because they keep losing straight up.

Mavericks Go-Against in Three Games in Four Night Situations

The Mavericks blockbuster trade to get Jason Kidd will be a classic “step back to take two steps forward” move for the handicappers. The Mavs bench was already thin and they diluted it further to get the soon-to-be 35 year old legs of Kidd.

Losing DeSagana Diop makes them a smaller team in a conference that has most of the league’s top big men. The move should help come playoff time, but we look to fade them against teams with quality big men and in unrested situations.

However, because of the trade, the public will perceive them as better and the oddsmakers must oblige.

Hawks and Over

Atlanta is one of the most underachieving teams in the league. They have two problems: coaching and point guard. Scratch the latter. Atlanta got Mike Bibby in a trade with the Kings. With Joe Johnson, the Hawks have a legitimate 1-2 punch.

The Hawks like to run and they got a necessary cog. We look for the Hawks to sneak up on the oddsmakers and also have a lot more high scoring games.

The author, Joe Duffy is part of Dream Team at GodsTips, the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com. Check out all the free and premium information for sports betting at OffshoreInsiders.com

Each and every season all sports should be a learning experience in sports betting. We always reflect and critique ourselves, evaluate what changes have been made by the oddsmakers and how the alterations in the sports landscape affect handicapping.

High on the list of strategy refinements this football season was the realization that I found a football handicapping Holy Grail about a quarter of a century ago yet let it slip through my fingertips.

In the pre-Internet days, one of my top sources for data was the Sports and Gaming Newswire, one of Jim Feist’s companies. I believe that was the first time I encountered the yards per point statistic.

On offense it is calculated by yards gained divided by points scored. On defense, it’s yards allowed divided by points given up. The theory is it measures efficiency on both sides of the ball.

A low number on offense is good, meaning a team does not waste yardage or “leave points on the field” so to speak.

A high number on defense is good, meaning a lot of successful defensive stands. However, conventional thinking (handicapping’s ultimate oxymoron) would say bet on the efficient teams and against the inefficient.

The stat proved not only worthless, but if anything one would be better off fading the stat. Little did I know how true the latter was and how consistent it has been with so many other improvements and refinements I’ve made in my handicapping over the decades.

We’ve written many articles on how we measure the accuracy and validity of a team’s performance. We don’t have the time and space to go over every detail but in short, we use net yardage record (a team that gets more yards “wins”) where others use straight up won-loss record. We use net yards per game comparisons where the squares employ points per game.

Others “rank” teams by total yards per game in passing, rushing and overall both offensively and defensively. In lieu of that, we use the more reliable yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per play relative to the cumulative average of their opponents to date.

For elaboration, visit the archived sports betting strategy articles at OffshoreInsiders.com, but our supposition is that these stats demonstrate which teams outplay or underplay their stats and hence, which teams have the biggest upside and which have the biggest downside. Insert the terms overvalued and undervalued.

Remember, a team’s Vegas/offshore value is most affected by their performance. But the teams that have the best, yes we said best yards per point stats are teams that are going to be overvalued and teams with the worst undervalued.

Why? The most efficient teams can only improve by maintaining the high bar they have set for themselves while increasing actual production.

The squads that, for example, waste offensive yardage by not converting them into points (bad yards per point rating) have demonstrated they are capable of more than their bottom line production has shown.

There is little debate that poor efficiency is more correctable than poor production. Remember, it’s not like one can retroactively bet stats. The more efficient teams will have the best spread records to date for the most part. As gamblers, we want to know beforehand which teams will have a reversal of fortune—literally.

This past season, we beta tested (tracked but did not bet) the theory. Voila. Yes, the teams that were wasting yards did have the biggest upside and the least wasteful teams did have the bigger downside. Essentially, it proved to be a great a great way to “buy low and sell high” and apply it to handicapping.

Best of all, the more the previously referenced stats: net yardage, yards per rush/pass/play and yards per point theories corroborated each other, not surprisingly, the stronger the play. If the data contradicted, of course it meant there was no statistical angle to exploit.

The beta testing is done. We are greatly looking forward to next football season.

No need to wait until next football season to bet on sports. The author, Joe Duffy makes his picks on GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com. With March Madness betting around the corner, note that Duffy’s prowess and work ethic has earned him the monikers of Mr. March and the Lord of the Dance.

This is Part-5 where the Center of the Handicapping Universe Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com breaks down the statistical comparisons of the bowl games. This report entails games of Jan. 1.

Wisconsin-Tennessee

The offensive stats are close. Tennessee gets 2.0 more first downs per game on 25.1 more total yards. However, Wisconsin has the most modest of edges, getting .1 more yards per play. Yet the Vols get 62.6 more passing yards per game. Talk about conflicting stats, the Badgers get 1.1 more passing yards per attempt and 2.7 more passing yards per reception.

The numbers give Wisconsin the check marks on defense. They allow 5.3 fewer first downs per game on 83.9 less yards. The Volunteers permit .2 fewer rushing yards per attempt. Every other comparison gives a small edge to the Badgers. But Tennessee has a turnover ratio of nine better than Wisky.

Arkansas-Missouri

While Missouri gets 6.1 more first downs per game on 35.4 more yards, Arkansas has the upper hand in the most important category (according to sports betting expert Joe Duffy), getting .3 more yards per play. But it’s a battle of differing styles as much as any bowl game. Arkansas picks up 131.7 more rushing yards per game; Mizzou 167.1 more passing yards per game. The Razorbacks get a significantly more 1.8 more rushing yards per attempt but Missouri .8 more passing yards per attempt. The Razorbacks have a more efficient passing game, accumulating .9 more passing yards per reception, yet the Tigers complete 11.9 more percent of their pass attempts.

It’s see-saw on defense as well. Missouri allows 29.1 less rushing yards per game, but Arkanas 50.3 fewer passing yards per game. The two most significant differences on defense are the Tigers permitting 1.8 less passing yards per reception, but the Razorbacks with a humungous passing percentage against superiority of 16.6.

Michigan-Florida

Florida has the huge upper hand on offense getting 4.7 more first downs per game, 110.8 yards per game, 1.8 more yards per play including 2.8 more passing yards per attempt. The Gators also complete 13.1 more percent of their passes.

On defense, it’s the Wolverines who are superior. They allow 4.7 less first downs per game on .5 fewer yards per play. However, Florida allows 27.4 fewer rushing yards per game on .6 less rushing yards per attempt. Michigan’s advantage is 98.2 fewer passing yards per game on 1.2 less passing yards per attempt and 1.6 less passing yards per reception. Michigan has a turnover ratio upper hand of seven.

Texas Tech-Virginia

High powered Tech gets 6.1 more first downs per game, 210.8 total yards per game on 2.4 more yards per play. However, the Cavs have the advantage in rushing yards per game by 61.8. The Red Raiders accumulate 2.1 more passing yards per attempt. They also have a commanding superiority in completion percentage by 13.8.

It’s pretty close on defense. The Cavs allow 62.7 less rushing yards per game, and 1.0 less rushing yards per attempt. But the Red Raiders permit 14.2 fewer passing yards per game. They have minimal edges as well in passing yards per attempt, passing yards per reception and passing percentage against. Virginia has the upper hand in turnover ratio by nine.

Illinois-USC

Contrary to what many may believe, Illinois actually averages a slight 4.9 more total yards per game on offense led by a superiority of 80.3 yards rushing. They also get 1.0 more rushing yards per attempt and 1.0 more passing yards per reception. The Trojans though complete 5.8 more percent of their passes.

USC allows 3.3 fewer first downs per game on 96.6 fewer total yards per game and 1.1 less yards per play. It’s a clean sweep of superiority on defense for Southern Cal giving up 1.3 less passing yards per attempt, 1.4 less passing yards per reception, and a completion percentage against of 4.8 less.

Hawaii-Georgia

Hawaii gets 7.3 more first downs per game on 143.6 more yards offensively. However, the Bulldogs run the ball much better getting 97.6 more yards per game on .8 more rushing yards per attempt. The Rainbow Warriors have a completion percentage of 16.8 better than the Dawgs.

The defensive comparison shows the teams closer than many may think. UGA allows 24.7 fewer yards per game, but Hawaii actually concedes .2 fewer yards per play. Hawaii allows .6 fewer passing yards per attempt on .7 less passing yards per reception. Turnover ratio comparison goes to the Bulldogs by five.

OffshoreInsiders.com is your one-stop shop for bowl betting. We have the latest live odds, plus CFB First Half Lines, CFB Halftime Lines, CFB Matchups from SportsDataBases or as an alternative CFB Matchups from StatFox, CFB Trend Sheet with ATS info, CFB Game Reports, CFB Game Previews from an online betting perspective.

The NCAA has long taken a harsh anti-gambling stance. They have a well-orchestrated “Don’t Bet on It” campaign including a website (DontBetOnIt.org).

Yet, the phony organization has a $100 million gamble and has fixed the outcome to ensure they will not lose the money they anted. The NCAA, in conjunction with their mega-million dollar betting syndicate of six BCS conferences, college presidents and the television networks, created the BCS 11 years ago. Topping the list of goals of the sweepstakes is to come up with a true national championship game.

The quandary is, ala ice skating, that the participants are determined by a very subjective equation that consists of judges in two polls and the computer average of six ranking systems. The compilation results in a point system that ranks each team, with the top two meeting to determine a champion.

However, the many imperfections of the method allows for the possibility that the NCAA could lose their bet. The winner of that alleged championship game may not wind up with the most BCS points when the point system was applied after the bowl games.

The new calculations could produce a top ranked team that did not even participate in the BCS Championship game. We saw an example of that when LSU earned a spot in this year’s game, leapfrogging a Virginia Tech team that won and a Georgia squad that did not play because they already finished their season.

There are endless scenarios in which the victor of Ohio State-LSU could also be leapfrogged. For example, LSU supporters point out that both of the Tigers losses were in overtime, hence their setbacks should be weighted less.

Okay, so what if the BCS Championship game also goes into overtime, should that victory be weighted less, allowing impressive bowl wins by Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Georgia, USC or Kansas to bypass them?

What if Hawaii stuns Georgia in impressive fashion? All of a sudden that sheds new light on their record and validates them as the only undefeated team in the country.

Well aware of the nightmare scenario, the NCAA has fixed the outcome. Coaches have as much right to vote their conscience as constituents do in Cuban elections. Regardless of who a coach believes should be No. 1 following the postseason results, they are mandated to declare the winner of the BCS’ gamble as champion. Is this not blatant shaving of the BCS’s own point system?

In fact, the Bowl Championship Series Rankings are not even recalculated following the bowls. A true final poll could reveal the BCS lost their wager. No problem, the NCAA comes up with a point system then manipulates the ultimate outcome to guarantee there will be no undesired results. If a player does that, it’s called point shaving. When the NCAA does the same thing, they call it the Bowl Championship Series.

College athletes, visit the DontBetOnIt.org site. Remember, when the NCAA informs you about all the evils of gambling and point shaving, do as they say, not as they do.

The author, Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com. Make sure you are happy with the outcome of the college football bowls by getting his GodsTips winning selections at OffshoreInsiders.com

Recently sports have seen minor controversies to major scandals that all have direct or indirect handicapping lessons. In short, they can be summed up in what we preach time and time again. The key to successful sports betting is getting an edge as often as possible.

This is exactly why coaches are notoriously secretive about the injury status of key players and also why we sports bettors exercise every source to get the accurate lowdown.

Coaches believe the more he knows about the injury status of his and his opponent’s key players, the more of an edge his team will get. It’s the same way with gamblers against their sportsbook opponent.

It’s precisely the reason the now infamous scandals of disgraced NBA referee Tim Donaghy and likely soon-to-be former Texas A&M football coach Dennis Franchione are so significant. Investing is sports scores is much like Wall Street betting. “Inside information” that coaches and refs have access to is the sports broker’s version of insider trading.

So is the lesson for the sports gambler that if we don’t get the state’s evidence directly from a coach or referee that we are out of luck? The answer is absolutely not. “Inside” information is far from the only way to get the upper hand on betting the odds.

A lot of valuable insight is out there. Just because information is public does not mean it’s widely circulated.

So often the keenest intelligence comes to light after the odds have been posted, often somewhat limiting how sportsbooks can act in response. We’ve long touted Google News as our favorite aggregator of sports betting information such as injuries, expert analysis on how teams match up, motivation recognition and other very useful bullet points.

However, Topix and ESPN have also teamed up to try to compete with Google News. Replacing their “Sitelines” section, ESPN has partnered with Topix to create “ESPN local”. This new feature aggregates articles of interest to the sports fan and gambler. That being said, Google News still reigns supreme, but the ESPN/Topix synergy has potential for the handicapper.

We move on to a minor controversy, but certainly an example of a coach pulling out all the stops to get the leg up on the competition or more accurately to counter the eminence of their foe.

Georgia finally ended Florida’s series domination in college football. In said game, the Bulldogs had a choreographed excessive celebration penalty after their first touchdown. Head coach Mark Richt admitted he told the team, “I expect you guys to celebrate to the point where the official will throw a flag for excessive celebration.”

Richt said his instructions were intended to fire up his team because he felt they needed to play with more passion. He did not specifically verify, but we strongly suspect that the fact that Florida had won 15 of the previous 17 meetings was motivational factor No. 1.

The handicapping ramifications are to never underestimate the importance of emotion and the psychology of sports. Of course most players on both Florida and Georgia were being potty trained when the domination started. Each team has gone through several coaching changes during the era. Despite all that, clearly Richt knew that a well publicized one-sided rivalry leads to swagger from one team and a “culture of losing” from the other.

Sports bettors should not completely disregard historical data even if the period precedes every player and coach who will affect that outcome of the game being handicapped. I honestly believe if Georgia had the 15-2 series edge, Richt would never have felt the need to manufacture boastfulness and confidence.

Then there was the short-lived, though periodic speculation about the Indianapolis Colts piping in crowd noise during home games. For our purposes, the veracity of these accusations is not as relevant as the fact that there is a reason why opponents care if the Colts are bending rules.

Again, crowd noise can give a home team—we will say it again—“the edge”. Few coaches or players will dispute the affect of the “12^th man” in football or the “6^th man” in basketball.

This is why we love it when we read that a team has for example “only the third sellout in two years” or that the small town mayor held a noon pep rally the day of a big game.

Not that a game or pointspread is necessarily going to be affected by a pep rally, but such seemingly innocuous events are symptoms of how significant a specific game is and how passionate the hometown crowd is going to be.

In college, we always keep an eye out for when the non-elite college basketball teams are playing home games while the student body is on winter break. The level of home court and home field advantage is fluid and will vary game-to-game, especially with lower profile schools where sellouts are far from a given.

What the average gambler takes for granted, the sharp player yearns for. No edge is too banal for smart money players. Best of all, one need not always have access to a private booster newsletter or collude with a rogue official. So often the most indispensable information to the gambler can be in the fourth paragraph of a squad’s hometown newspaper or within the official team press release.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers and free sports betting information.

Joe Duffy (OffshoreInsiders.com)

Often spending 15 hours per day in front of this computer, I do listen to a lot of sports radio stations around the country via the magic of streaming audio. Every Monday, Friday and Saturday, I am entertained by so-called handicappers, “Vegas legends” and other mercenaries. The various pitchmen purchase infomercial segments peddling their weekly “opportunity of a lifetime”.

Bobby Ventura is the most pathetic. I heard a commercial from a guy in radio voice saying he was Bobby Ventura and they were 6-1 on Monday Night Football. Then another guy in a boiler room Long Island accent comes on, says he’s Bobby Ventura and it’s only his second Monday Night Football release of the year.

A handful of the touts do supply worthwhile information, but most of the shows, to quote politico William Gibbs, consists of an “an army of pompous phrases moving across the landscape in search of an idea.” It’s a weekly echo chamber of how many ways the huckster tries to sway listeners into believers. “You have to know which teams are coming to play and which are not” generally followed by a strange segue comparing football teams to horses, race cars or other generic talking points.

However, the one recurring specific assertion makes me cringe because the boiler room tout is exploiting a myth with the intent of separating fools from their money.

It’s the fairy-tale where the canned script claims that with about 60 or so college and pro football games they find “one game” in which “information so strong” comes in.” Of course “when an opportunity this strong (“strong” seems to be a favorite word of the scamdicappers) lands on your lap, you have to simply unload on this game.” As luck would have it, that week’s treasure chest just so happens to fall on the same day the paid announcement is scheduled to broadcast.

The “unload on this one game” fool’s gold could not be further detached from reality. Like we said in reference to the Tim Donaghy scandal, sharp players look to get information (not necessarily the vague claims of “inside” information) that will give them an edge over a span of hundreds of bets.

This is the No. 1 reason the NCAA should be concerned about Texas A&M coach Dennis Francione’s secret newsletter. “Getting accurate injury information before the oddsmakers acquire it would increase any decent sports bettor’s winning percentage by 6-8 percentage points” says Mike Godsey, Senior Handicapper of GodsTips.com. He admits that estimate errs on the conservative side.

Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com agrees if “every coach published a secret newsletter, professional gamblers would annihilate the sportsbooks.”

But contrary to what the boiler room touts want you to believe, Vincent and Godsey are not referring to “betting the mortgage” on any single game or a small number of games, but hitting 60-plus percent of hundreds of bets per year.

Between having been the GM of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, I’ve gotten dozens of inquiries from handicappers who wanted to be part of said networks. I always demand at least a week’s worth of writing samples before they are even given consideration.

Frankly this caveat weeds out about 95 percent of applicants. If the aspiring candidate does not supply analysis that convinces me that the handicapper has insight that few bettors possess, he has zero chance of ever being on a site in which I am the decider.

My credo is that all established professional handicappers are proud to show off the amount of research that goes into a bet. If a handicapper gives you no rationale, rest assured you just paid for a coin flip.

Many claim to have “information” such as the previously referenced newest wave of radio touts. Those who actually can supply the privy and precise scoop will document their claims with specifics of what their knowledge actually is. Otherwise it’s all propaganda.

Again, the golden rule is no matter how invaluable the lowdown proves to be, any upper hand will pay off long-term. This is no “bail out game”. Excluding pushes, even the preeminent gamblers will lose four out of every 10 bets.

Perhaps the biggest difference between the professional gambler and the degenerate is that the elite bettors measure success by the month, year and decade. Losing 40 percent of their bets has to be the cost of doing business. The deadbeat meanwhile falls prey to any clown with a sales pitch and an 800 number.

Luckily for radio sales people and bookmakers, so many rainbow chasers continue to choose the latter.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and lead handicapper of GodsTips on said site. His picks are always backed by specific rationale as to why you too should bet his plays.

It’s been awhile since we authored a volume in this series. However more anticipated than a Harry Potter novel, the Tid-Bets return to take a look at various sports handicapping and betting issues.

How Do Handicappers Work Overtime?

CBS announcer Gary Danielson accurately observed how college football overtimes can greatly distort statistics. From a handicapping standpoint, this is certainly true for those who use deceptive rankings or points per game statistics. Luckily sharp bettors do not or they are weighted very lightly.

The main statistics that we use: yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense compared to the cumulative average of their opponents are not debased by overtime play. The same is true for ace football handicapper Mike Godsey of GodsTips.com who utilizes net yard advantage/disadvantage cumulative statistics.

We’ve explained in previous articles why straight up wins and losses, point margin, and offensive and defensive rankings are the most popular choices of square players planning their own sportsbook death sentence.

“If a team wins by eight points in four overtimes, it looks the same as an eight-point win in regulation,” says Mike Godsey, referring to those who use the above fatal stats.

“But if the losing team is stopped on the three-yard line trying to tie the game, it is very much accounted for in our statistics,” brags Godsey.

Godsey adds that while as a fan he despises the fact that teams start 25 yards from pay dirt; it is built-in insurance that the more reliable numbers don’t get too distorted in overtime.

Will the Pitching and Defense Cliché Ever Die?

In 2007, no surprise, seven of the top eight offenses based on a team’s on base percentage made the playoffs. Two of the three teams that finished with 70 wins or less, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, ranked in the top five in defense, ahead of six of the eight playoff teams. And six of the top 10 pitching teams missed the playoffs.

This is on the heels of St. Louis winning the World Series with Chris Carpenter and a cast of rejects on their pitching staff. Their closer was a converted rookie starting pitcher. The year before the White Sox had a good starting pitching staff and an abysmal bullpen. In recent years, Arizona won with Johnson and Schilling and the rest of the staff worth killing.

The Toronto Blue Jays this most recent campaign had the best pitching staff in MLB with A.J. Burnett, Roy Halladay, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch. All they did was finish 13 games out of first place.

This year the Colorado Rockies enter the World Series having won an historic 21-of-22 games. The ace of their staff is Jeff Francis, a very solid pitcher indeed. Problem is, he’d be the No. 3 starter on the Atlanta Braves, a team that the media said failed to make the playoffs because of lack of pitching. But not to worry, rounding out the Rockies pitching staff is Ubadlo Jimenez and Franklin Morales. Combined, they have seven career wins under their belt. Yes, combined they have seven more wins at the Major League level than I do.

Pitching and defense wins in the media, but the teams with the best clutch hitting are the squads that professional gamblers laugh with all the way to the bank.

ESPN Fantasy Football Simulations a Tool for Proposition Bettors

Over the last several years, online gamblers have been able to bet on the production of individual players in their respective sports. An elite gambler in fantasy football betting is Mike Snow of BettorsAdvice.com.

He says there is no better starting point than the ESPN fantasy football projections. “We of course make adjustments for injuries, but contrasting the player proposition odds to the ESPN simulations has proven to be great foundation in fantasy NFL betting.”

Lower betting limits make it more challenging for sharp players to clean house on the sportsbooks, but Snow says some of the highest return on investments have been in betting NFL player propositions.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

The Marshall Thundering Herd and the Memphis Tigers will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Liberty Bowl.

The top Online Sportsbook has the Tigers listed as 3-point favorites versus the Thundering Herd, while the game’s total is sitting at 60.

The Thunderding Herd were crushed 40-14 last week by the Cincinnati Bearcats, as 24.5-point underdogs. The 54 points were a PUSH against the posted total of 54.

Bernard Morris completed 20-of-30 pass attempts for 255 yards with two touchdowns in a losing effort.

The Tigers got up early, and failed ot hold on in a 35-31 loss last time out. The Tigers failed to cover the 6-point spread at home, while the 66 runs made it OVER the posted total of 62.

Remember, a huge marketing conglomerate is spending tens of thousands of dollars every week advertising their brands such as Jonathan Stone of Stone Cold Locks, Bobby Ventura, Game Brokers, Tony Smith and others. They “borrow” the Level 5 plays from Stevie Vincent of OffshoreInsiders.com and re-sell them for 10-20 or more times what OffshoreInsiders.com charges. Vincent has his Conference USA Eastern Division Game of the Year. Pay Jonathan Stone $500 or get it for $40 at OffshoreInsiders.com

The Tigers had two rushing touchdowns, and Martin Hankins caught another in the loss.

Current streak:
Marshall has lost 4 straight games.
Memphis has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Marshall: 0-4 SU, 1-2 ATS
Memphis: 1-3 SU, 1-1-1 ATS

Marshall most recently:
When playing in October are 6-4
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 4-6

Memphis most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on turf are 2-8
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 2-8

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Marshall’s last 6 games on the road
Marshall is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Marshall is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Marshall is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Memphis is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games
Memphis is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home

Next up:
Marshall at Tulsa, Saturday, October 13
Memphis home to Middle Tennessee, Saturday, October 13

The latest college football odds show that Purdue is a 22.5 point betting favorite against Central Michigan. Forensic handicapping founder Stevie Vincent says take the points and go with the Chippewas.

This is no small play considering The Great One is now the choice of betting syndicates. In the early 1980s, Mark Lawrence’s Preferred Picks was considered the trends and angles guru. In football it was the Gold Sheet betting tip sheet. Curt Thomas was the NBA numbers guru.

Phil Steele and Northcoast Sports puts out great publications, but their picks have struggled mightily. Dr. Bob has his recent run and is still liked by some, but all the sharpies now jump on the forensic handicapping selections of BetOnSports360.com

The rationale is as follows for the CMU pick:

Central Michigan is 9-0 to the betting line off an over. They are also 13-3 in all games and 10-2 off of consecutive spread wins. CMU is also 12-3 against the spread after committing a turnover and 5-0 to teams with a winning record. Also according to the sportsbooks they are 13-3 after getting more than 450 total yards last game, and 20-6 after allowing more than 450 total yards last game.

There are plenty of reasons to go against the Boilermakers at your favorite online sportsbook. Purdue is 4-9 as a favorite, 7-17 against the odds after getting more than 450 total yards last game. They are 1-8 home favorites and 0-7 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing last game.

College football betting expert Stevie Vincent has one of the all-time great angles. This is among 3 Level 5 plays. The 28-1 angle is a game side but the other two Level 5 plays are over/under winners. Mastering over/under has been a staple of forensic handicapping. Stevie goes 5-0. BetOnSports360 plays are exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com

Maryland gets their first real test of the year as they host the Mountaineers from West Virginia. BetUs Sportsbook has West Virginia as a 16.5 point favorite with a total of 65.

Each team is 2-0. West Virginia disposed of Western Michigan and exploded in the second half to thrash Marshall.

Maryland, to say the least, had a pair of tune-ups with easy wins over Villanova and Florida International.

First half bettors will want to note that WVU is only outscoring their first two opponents by 17-13.5 in the first half. Former California Vulcan Jeff Casteel is the defensive coordinator at West Virginia and must improve on a defense that is allowing 4.8 yards per pass.

The Mountaineers have won the last three in the series, by 21, 12 and three in reverse chronological order. However, Terps coach Ralph Friedgen has a 4-3 overall edge over Rich Rodriquez.

Look for short, high-percentage passes from Maryland. Signal caller Jordan Steffy has completed 74 percent of his passes. Deep threat Darrius Heyward-Bey will keep the defense honest. He will test the porous WVU secondary with his 4.23 40-yard dash speed.

Joe Duffy’s GodsTips is undefeated with college football totals this year and has a Wise Guy play on the total. Piping hot Kal Elner has the biggest bet in the sports gaming industry on the side available through the MasterLockLine. Get these and all the top sports service best bets at OffshoreInsiders.com

Some computer betting trends show that West Virginia is 21-9 to the sportsbooks after a game in which they committed no turnovers. Conversely they are only 6-17 against the spread to the ACC including 2-10 their last 12.

West Virginia is a sensational 41-17 in the wallet after a game in which they rushed for 200 or more yards. Maryland is just 9-20, according to the pointspread, as a double digit dog. They are also just 1-6 if they allowed less than 20 points in their last game.

Sports handicapping news and notes for college football betting comes directly from the private clipboard of OffshoreInsiders.com

Georgia Tech-Notre Dame

Almost all reliable sources agree that Demetrius Jones will start at QB for Notre Dame or at least be the main signal caller. The Irish, of course, must replace Brady Quinn, now with the Cleveland Browns.

Missouri-Illinois

Cy McCormick of the MasterLockLine says that among sharp Las Vegas sports bettors and online gamblers, the consensus “surprise team” among BCS conferences is Illinois. “There is a lot of pressure on Missouri in this game. I see serious upset potential here.”

Florida International-Penn State

Look for Penn State coach Joe Paterno to use this game to experiment. Although he has 15 starters back, only one offensive lineman returns at his original position.

Houston-Oregon

Houston must replace one of their best quarterbacks ever Kevin Kolb. They face a high powered Oregon team, trying to match points with Blake Joseph and Case Keenum battling for the No. 1 spot. They have thrown eight passes between them at the college football level.

Houston has been experimenting with a new 4-2-5 defense and will likely face some no-huddle against the Ducks as they break in an unfamiliar alignment.

Baylor-TCU

Baylor wide receiver Thomas White admits his Bears are feeling disrespected over being 21-point underdogs. Last year, the Bears led TCU 7-0 at halftime. Baylor coach Guy Morriss has said he watched the game films from last year’s matchup “about 600 times”. Mike Godsey of GodsTips.com, generally considered the top football handicapper in the nation said, “That sounds like a circled game to me” referring to term used by pointspread bettors looking for a betting edge in which one team may be more motivated for a blowout or to keep a game close.

Colorado-Colorado State

Which team gets the best sleep? The kickoff is at 10:00 a.m. local time. Colorado will be without a lot of projected starters. Michael Sipili, the probable starting middle linebacker, was suspended with two reserves for offseason fighting incidents. Last year’s starting quarterback Bernard Jackson is out with personal issues. He was supposed to play more of a “slash” jack-of-all-trades position this year. True freshman Josh Smith, another likely starter, is out with a bruised kidney.

For free sports betting picks, visit OffshoreInsiders.com

Here are news and notes from the standpoint of pointspread investors. Information is from the private clipboard of the OffshoreInsiders.com sports handicappers and sports betting services.

Redskins-Jaguars

Mike Godsey, the top professional football betting analyst reports that the Redskins will have key players on the field longer than most teams to in the preseason finale. Quarterback Jason Campbell, third year player, but first year starter, will see his most extensive time of the preseason. Oft-injured running back Clinton Portis is also expected to see his first snaps of exhibition play.

Cowboys-Vikings

Over/under bettors, note that the Cowboys do have a big battle for the No. 3 QB position. Look for Matt Moore and Richard Bartel to be given a chance to air it out.

Chiefs-Rams

Chief’s starting quarterback Damon Huard will not play at all as he’s nursing a sore calf. Veteran tackle Kyle Turley will play despite missing practice Tuesday for personal reasons.

Cardinals-Broncos

The Cardinals will play their starters on each side of the ball for one or two series. Denver backup signal caller Patrick Ramsey, an experienced starter, will get little or no playing time. Preston Parsons and Darrell Hackney will get most of the playing time at center. They have four completions combined this preseason.

49ers-Chargers

Cy McCormick, who is on the “winners list” of most online sportsbooks, reports that San Francisco’s starting units for each side of the ball will play 12 snaps or the entire first quarter, whichever comes first.

Bills-Lions

Buffalo’s starters will play two series at the most. J.P. Losman will get the start at QB, Craig Nall will also play a series or two than rookie Trent Edwards goes the rest of the way. Cornerback Terrence McGee is out and wise receiver Lee Evens is very unlikely to play.

What are the biggest sports service plays in the industry? MasterLockLine.com gives you only the highest rated plays from the highest rated handicappers in their highest rated sports. You literally have the power of 620 sports services behind every selection

Preseason results are worthless in predicting the spread winners in NFL gambling. The Indianapolis Colts are 2-12 straight up their last 14 exhibition contests. During that span, they became the first team in NFL history to begin 9-0 in consecutive seasons.

While in the NBA and MLB, exhibition results are actually a good warning of which teams will come out of the gate quickly or slowly, making the first 10 days of MLB easy pickings on underdogs, not so in the NFL. The Colts have won 14-of-16 September games outright.

From 1992-95, Dallas was 49-15 in the regular season, winning three Super Bowls. Their preseason mark in those years was 7-12-1.

While appearing in four Super Bowls from 1990-93, Buffalo was also 49-15 in regular season contests. In practice contests: 6-12.

Ben Roethlisberger was abysmal in the 2005 preseason. All he did after that was--in Bob Griese, Joe Montana, Tom Brady fashion--efficiently direct the Pittsburgh Steelers to Super Bowl victory.

One of the biggest myths in successful sports gambling comes from the squares who claim sharp players don’t bet preseason football. Those who bet on sports for a living know accurate motivational and key player rotation information is obtainable.

However the actual results hold no value in beating the regular season NFL odds. Even the Roethlisberger example showed focusing on key players will often result in false positives or negatives.

A comparable player at a comparable point in his career is a good example. Arizona is a great candidate to be this year’s Cinderella. It call comes down to how far their young signal caller Matt Leinart has progressed.

What can we deduce from his mixed preseason performance? Sports wagering NFL experts will tell you, “nothing”.

Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, is enemy No. 1 at the sports books. His premium plays and expert advice can be had there as part of sports service GodsPicks.

Here are Tuesday’s baseball betting news and notes from the private clipboard of the top baseball handicappers at OffshoreInsiders.com

Devil Rays-Orioles

Tampa’s Jason Hammel has a 10.42 ERA in the month of August. However, he faces an Orioles team that has lost six straight. Daniel Cabrera is 6-0 lifetime to Tampa with a 2.90 ERA.

Twins-Indians

Cleveland’s Jake Westbrook has been a sensational fantasy baseball pitcher as of late, sporting a 1.50 ERA in his last 36 innings. World class handicapper Stevie Vincent, one of the OffshoreInsiders.com top experts, notes that Kason Gabbard has great splits numbers. Texas has won all six of his home starts and his home ERA is 2.38 with a .912 WHIP.

Angels-Mariners

The Halos Jeff Weaver is what master sports handicapper Joe Duffy likes to call “predictably unpredictable”. He’s allowed one run or less in 20 starts, but six or more in seven trips to the hill.

Reds-Pirates

Cincinnati enters this double-header with the longest winning streak in MLB at eight games.

Mets-Phillies

Philadelphia southpaw Adam Eaton has been abysmal all year as his 6.36 ERA and 1.62 WHIP dictates. Fresh off the DL, he takes on the first-place Mets in a relative “must win” for the Phillies. Surprisingly, Eaton has a 5-0 lifetime record to the Mets with a 1.89 ERA.

The Phillies are winless in 12 games as a home underdog in 2007.

Braves-Marlins

Florida is ice cold, losing 9-of-11. The Braves send future Hall-of-Famer John Smoltz to the hill off of consecutive wins in which he’s pitched 18 innings combined and given up just four runs. Smoltz is 13-6 career to the Marlins with a 2.70 ERA.

Florida is 1-15 for -16.8 units this year when their bullpen ERA is 3.00 or less in their previous 10 games.

Brewers-Cubs

Red hot Rich Hill totes the mound for Chicago. Over his last two starts he’s given up three runs with a 17-3 walk-to-strikeout ratio. The Brew Crew are 4-16 -15.5 their last 20 to teams that average .9 or less homeruns per game.

Nationals-Dodgers

Washington’s Jason Bergmann makes his first start in more than a month.

For premium sports service winners, go to OffshoreInsiders.com

The premier sports handicapping experts of Covers-Experts.com take a look at some early betting news and notes for the first week of college football.

Tennessee-California

It’s of course a huge revenge game for the Golden Bears. Last year, the Volunteers crushed Cal in the season opener 35-18. Cal returns 16 starters, eight on one of the top offenses in the country.

UL Lafayette-South Carolina

South Carolina free safety Emanuel Cook, an All-SEC selection last year as a freshman, is suspended as is Gamecocks starting quarterback Blake Mitchell.

Washington State-Wisconsin

New Badgers quarterback Tyler Donovan has only two starts under his belt. However, he does have proven playmakers returning to help with his transition: tight ends Travis Beckum and Andy Crooks, tailback P.J. Hill and wideouts Paul Hubbard and Luke Swan.

Utah-Oregon State

The Utes were to return 10 starters on offense. On the other hand, offensive lineman Jason Boone was lost for the season. According to Stevie Vincent, “All reports are that Utah is much more prepared for the season then they were last year.” Vincent has replaced football handicapper Dr. Bob Stohl as the lead betting source for large betting syndicates.

Kansas State-Auburn

Moneyline bettors will want to note that Auburn is 11-1 in home night games this century, including four wins to nationally ranked teams. They’ve won 12-of-14 and 20 of their last 23 SU at home. However, note that Auburn must replace RB Kenny Irons and their all-time leading receiver Courtney Taylor. Returning players accounted for only 42.5 percent of their rushing yards last year and 55.6 percent of their receptions. Also four starters are gone from their offensive line.

Eastern Michigan-Pittsburgh

EMU was 1-11 last year and has lost 35 straight games straight up to BCS conference teams. Eastern Michigan though has a more proven QB as their starter Andy Schmitt started 7-of-12 games last year. Pittsburgh has a virgin QB Bill Stull and a rebuilt linebacking unit.

Marshall-Miami

Master college football handicapper Joe Duffy of GodsTips reports that new Miami coach Randy Shannon plans on playing both true and redshirt freshman. “That backdoor could be wide open” says Duffy of a potential pointspread cover for Marshall, while the Hurricanes are breaking in the new talent.

Premium college football sports service plays are available from the nation’s top ranked sports handicapping experts at OffshoreInsiders.com

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Everyone, this author included, has theories on the precise details of how rebel NBA ref Tim Donaghy may have affected the outcome of games in which he officiated. Theories by definition are conjecture. They need only be plausible using the known facts. Even reasonable suppositions may not prove to be 100 percent correct.

There are many rational hypotheses on the scandal and then again, there is other guesswork that can easily have holes poked through it. There are a small number of postulators who, to their credit, have been able to gravy train this scandal into purporting themselves as gambling experts. Unfortunately, to the more seasoned and authentic authorities in sports gambling, too often the notions of the squeakier wheels may get the oil even if the views rarely hold water.

At the very least the more seasoned are much less apt to scream proof in the crowded theatre of nattering nabobs. The USA Today’s Danny Sheridan correctly observes, “You can make all kind of cases with numbers. But if you have the exact games, then it’s like black and white.”

As an example, an “expert” often quoted on ESPN.com asserts that 13 games last year in which Donaghy officiated were within one-point of the spread. Does ESPN use a fact checker? According the game log as published on that same ESPN.com, the number is actually 11, not 13. But fudging the number by more than 18 percent makes a much sexier story.

Thanks for proving the oddsmakers are adept, damn savvy in fact. Any two bit gambler was aware of this bombshell. To embellish on a line from the Simpson’s, it seems to me a rather obvious find from a rather mediocre genius. This discovery was classic dog bites man though some gullible media saps bought it hook, line and sinker as man bites dog.

If even a higher percentage of games were going down to the pointspread wire with Donaghy, this would be evidence that he likely did not, repeat not affect the outcome. How anyone could imply the opposite is beyond me.

However, if a forensic statistician found that Donaghy had the highest percentage of games that were not even close to the pointspread, that would be a potential straw in the wind unlike the polar opposite (non) finding.

But wait, the “betting expert” has all his bases covered. He found that in games Donaghy officiated in 2007, the average number of points was 13 point higher than the average posted total.

So the “smoking gun” is too many games were too close to the pointspread, but then again, the other smoking gun is that too many over/unders were not close to the pointspread. The ghost of Joe McCarthy lives and the legacy of Mike Nifong thrive.

The so-called gambling experts seem to be missing the point, though cynics will tell you the only point is that the worst publicity is no publicity for wannabes. After all, no purported conclusive evidence means no real story and no media exposure.

Granted, we still do not know every detail, and perhaps never will regarding the Tim Donaghy scandal. However, from what we have seen so far, it appears point shaving was likely not as commonplace and may not even be part of the criminal allegations against him.

We do know for a fact that he supplied “inside information”. As a gambler who handicaps games legitimately, I can assure you that we are always, always looking for an “edge”—any and all major advantages—over the long-run. Getting “inside information” does not mean we bet the mortgage on a particular sporting event, but it can increase our long-term winning percentage.

Examples are the injury status of a key player. Shaquille O’Neal, Dwayne Wade and Pau Gasol are instances of star players whose game time status was often uncertain to the gambler. However, Donaghy would have access to unpublished injury information, the type of privy data that would give a gambler a huge upper hand.

As another example, perhaps a team was playing five contests in seven nights and their flight into town was delayed four hours, they got to town at 11:00 A.M. on game day. Knowing when situations like this occur would also provide bettors with a huge edge.

Simply “if”, any player, coach or ref were involved in point shaving, it is highly doubtful if his chicanery would result in the final scores being disproportionately close to the spread. It would be quite the opposite.

So of the two bodies of evidence thrown against the wall by the err “betting expert,” one that says too many games were close to the number and the other that says too many games were not close to the number, the latter is much more likely to stick.

My educated estimation, based on what I heard so far, is that Donaghy supplied the gamblers version of “insider trading” as illustrated above. Game day unpublished information would be the holy grail for sharp players, and it appears that is exactly what Donaghy supplied.

When the specific contests that Donaghy bet on comes out, of course an inordinate percentage will be in matches he officiated. The Johnny-come-lately experts will scream there is the damning evidence they knew was coming.

Not so fast. Of course Donaghy is going to have access to inside information on a game when he’s already on site. How can he do undercover work on a matchup that is 400 miles from his own two eyes and ears?

While even those of us who refuse to jump to rash conclusions will appropriately muse, “How could he possibly be objective in a game in which he has five dimes riding?” this is far from proof that he consciously influenced the outcome.

Don’t get me wrong, Donaghy is clearly guilty of going well over the line of any and all codes of conduct, but I am quite confident those hell bent in proving a made-for-television conspiracy will only continue to make leaps of faith that may not be backed by the evidence. A scenario in which he acquired inside information on games other those he was to officiate would be a shocking turn of events to the true “betting experts”.

Reasonable speculation is human nature. Salacious gossip backed merely by fuzzy math is irresponsible. ESPN.com proves to be the worldwide leader in tittle-tattle.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com He has written hundreds of articles on sports gaming, published on many of the top websites and in leading publications around the world and has been an expert guest on several national radio shows including Sporting News Network.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Many a professional handicapper is publishing his preseason college football predictions. Unfortunately, these prognostications can have limited value to the pointspread bettor, even if the conjecture turns out to be spot on.

For example, all of the touts I’ve seen have forecasted USC to win the Pac-10 and Stanford to finish dead last. It is quite conceivable for these prognostications to be flawless, yet the Cardinal could still finish with a better record against the spread than the Trojans.

We take conference foreboding an imperative step further. Borrowing the research done at Stassen.com, over the years we have compared and contrasted the consensus predictions of the respected preseason college football publications to the offshore odds.

While this has proven enormously valuable for placing futures bets, it is even more advantageous in compiling a “cheat sheet” of overvalued and undervalued teams entering the season.

First of all, let’s set the simple criterion. Stassen takes 12 preseason publications and uses a basic point system to compile a consensus. If a periodical predicts a team to win their conference, they are assigned one point. Two points are given for a second place prediction, three for third and so on.

Of course the consensus is formed by ranking teams by lowest point total to highest. Better yet, the specific point compilation helps us “rate” teams (see previous articles about the difference between rating and ranking). We compare the Stassen research to the odds to win a conference or division as posted by BetUs Sportsbook.

Major dichotomies are noted and teams are graded as overvalued, extremely overvalued, undervalued, extremely undervalued, or at value.

For example, the Miami Hurricanes are modest -115 favorites to win the ACC Coastal even though Virginia Tech at even money is the unanimous choice to win according to the preseason magazines. Yet, GA Tech is at +775 even though they are dead-even with Miami according to the 12 modules. We flag Virginia Tech as “at value”, Miami as “overvalued” and GA Tech as “extremely undervalued”.

By no means do we gaze at just the top or for that matter the bottom of the standings for an edge. For example Illinois is the second long shot in the Big 10 at +3500. However, they are a comfortable seventh (remember there are 11 teams in the Big 10) in the compilation. We grade the Illini as “undervalued”.

Remember that the offshore odds take public perception into account. No publication is perfect, but we have found the rated assemblage of the numerous sources to be more accurate in distinguishing the talent levels of the teams.

Even the most accurate conference predictions can be flawed to the gambler because betting odds are the great equalizer. Our system of contrasting the data with the betting odds gives sharp players the premier preseason sports betting cheat sheet.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, home of free picks, live scores and odds, sports betting databases and the famed Tailgate Party, news and notes of interest to the online bettor compiled from hometown newspapers.

This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.

Does the Commissioner Want to Send a Stern Message?

Though David Stern was non-committal on how the referee Tim Donaghy betting scandal would affect Las Vegas’ bid to get an NBA team, most experts agree the fiasco will be the death knell for Sin City’s bid for a franchise.

Stern has admitted it is his understanding the bets were placed illegally and not through Vegas. If Stern were genuine about stopping point-shaving, he would ban NBA games being played in cities where illegal sports betting is rampant: Philadelphia, New York and Boston. Better yet, Stern could campaign for complete legalization, where a legitimate activity need not be forced underground and into the underworld.

Methinks Stern will choose the hypocritical road.

Sharpie: 5 Inning Lines the Best Prop Play

Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com is the top expert when it comes to evaluating pitchers. Vincent says starting pitching is the one certainty because gamblers can specify pitchers, thus it is the easiest to exploit proposition bet.

“We can’t specify a bet is cancelled if a clean-up hitter is scratched. We don’t know beyond reproach how the pinch hitter/relief pitcher chess game will transpire. But we do know who the starting pitchers will be.”

He elaborates that pinch hitters and the bullpen can determine full-game bets, but starting pitching is the primary decider on five-inning wagers.

Some Things Are Worth Repeating

I’ve authored my share of articles on preseason betting strategy. Though we refine strategies as the fluid art of handicapping dictates, one truth that remains indisputable is that the Internet has been most invaluable during the NFL preseason.

Accurate quarterback and key player rotations, motivational information and other key intel are available for the adept Internet surfer. Best of all, more precise lowdown evolves after sportsbooks post odds, putting the advantage to the gambler.

Preseason football is a boon to the true sharp player because it is a goldmine for so-called “intangible” information.

Futures Bet

The most popular futures bet is on who will win the Super Bowl. We say the San Diego Chargers. Only baseball’s Bobby Cox and perhaps the NBA’s George Karl have consistently done less with more in the postseason than disposed Bolt coach Marty Schottenheimer. A clear case of addition by subtraction, we expect new coach Norv Turner to take the already loaded Chargers to the Promised Land.

Joe Duffy of GodsTips.com , the “NFL Specialist” has for the first time ever, by popular request, full-season football-only packages. They are available at OffshoreInsiders.com

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Yet another betting scandal has come to the forefront, this time it involves NBA referee Tim Donaghy. So far, the allegations have not pinpointed any specific games under suspicion.

What has been disclosed is that the FBI is investigating games Donaghy officiated over the last two years to see if he intentionally made calls to influence the betting outcome.

Though the media has used the term “pointspread,” it is unclear whether they are aware of the gambling distinction meaning Donaghy’s bets were against the spread as opposed to totals.

I’ve watched as some of my colleagues have tried in vain to find a statistical smoking gun. Nobody has and in truth, in lieu of specific information such as how many games were involved and whether such bets were on pointspread, moneyline or over/under, etc. there is not likely to be damning evidence found in any database.

Instead, I will try a different approach of getting into the mind of a potential game fixer. If hypothetically I wanted to influence the betting outcome of an NBA game with the aid of an NBA ref, how would I do it without leaving telltale signs?

First and foremost, as a handicapper I am always looking for an edge, never naively banking on a sure thing. In other words, I never have, nor ever will bet the mortgage on any one game, but instead will look to hit 57 percent or higher over the long run.

Hence, with the knowledge that one referee in a three man crew could not with 100 percent certainty fix any one game without being apparent, my theoretical collusion with a referee would involve achieving the desired gambling result at least 60 percent of the time over a series of games.

Because the accusations do involve games over the previous two years, this appears to be a likely scenario.

Also I would focus on over/unders. This way a referee need not favor any one team. Not only would this make it much easier to conceal a bias, but if Donaghy were looking for ethical clearance, he can easily convince himself that his unfairness is not favoring either team, instead only affecting the flow of the game.

In such circumstances, a referee need only be much more aggressive in calling fouls, getting both teams in the penalty early and often. Furthermore, all borderline calls would come at the defensive end. What’s a charge?

And finally a referee could see to it the defensive specialists on each team would get into foul trouble early. Let’s say Detroit is playing Chicago. I would order my co-conspirator ref to make sure Ben Wallace gets a quick whistle. But I’m not favoring Detroit, because their defensive guru Tayshaun Prince will also get whistled early and often.

Knowing that the top defensive players on each team will be limited in minutes and that each team will likely make more than normally expected trips to the free throw line more than qualifies as an “edge” to the gambler.

Of course once those teams get in the penalty nice and early, as part of the plan, the referee would be instructed that anytime a good free throw shooter is as much as breathed on, he’s going to the line. Simply put, there need not be preferential treatment towards any one team, just towards both offenses or in other theoretic situations, each defense.

It’s no coincidence I chose the Bulls and Pistons as a hypothetical illustration. Games with low totals going over or high totals going under would be the type of bets that would have the highest probability of influencing without being glaringly obvious.

Alas, according to the referee database at Covers.com, in the 2006-07 season, games Donaghy officiated went over 10-of-12 times if the posted total were 184.5 or less. Yet if the total were 205 or more, it went under at an 11-7 rate.

Far from a smoking gun, but when all details come out, it’s the educated opinion of this gambling veteran that the above imaginary scenarios will prove to be very close to the truth. I’ll even bet on it.

Joe Duffy is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers. Media inquiries to joeduffy@joeduffy.net

Approved sportsbooks are at www.linetrackers.com Please be aware of all laws pertaining to online gambling in the country in which you live.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

We are often asked what our best sport is in handicapping. At GodsTips.com we’ve gotten to the point where we are at the top of the list in every sport, so it’s difficult to single one out. However there is no question that our mastery of baseball in the early 1990s is what vaulted me to the point where professional sports handicapping would be my lifelong profession.

Yet, to be perfectly frank, while continuing to improve upon our results in other sports, over the last year and a half, I returned to the pack in baseball. It was time for some serious introspection. Fortuitously, going back to my handwritten spiral notebook scorephone days, I saved my picks, analysis and results from decades past.

Was I doing something differently all of a sudden? After a few hours of soul searching, it became obvious I slowly but surely abandoned some of the basics that got me to the pinnacle in the first place.

In some respects, I became a victim of my own success. In 2005, I had probably my best year winning what we call “Dandy Dogs”. Dandy Dogs are moneyline dogs of 140 or more (includes runline plays getting back 140 or more).

The downside was it led me to develop a bias against even small favorites. I’ve known and preached for years the basics of risk/reward ratio. For example, a 150 favorite needed to have a 60 percent chance of winning to be a break even bet or based on our threshold had to have 70 percent chance of winning to be a premium play. Yet there were nights I’d go 3-4 and still win money because of betting all dogs. Bit by bit, I developed personal chalk reluctance in betting.

Too many well-handicapped favorites of more than 120 became passes for me simply because of my increasing acute prejudice against laying the juice. Since returning to my roots, the 120-160 favorites have been a major reason behind my return to MLB handicapping prominence.

But even with picking our baseball underdogs, we became victims of the successes we had in other sports. We take great pride in being ahead of the curve with modern technology. The Internet made every team the “local team” from a handicapping standpoint because once regional information is now so easily accessible.

The World Wide Web has been a boon to us in preseason NFL with accurate key player rotation and motivation info. In college football and basketball it has revolutionized the way sharp players bet.

While super systems have been a great addition in all sports including baseball, our self scrutiny brought to light that we were allowing the Billy Beane and Bill James inspired new fangled stats to convince us out of winning picks.

In our first two decades of handicapping, we have had significant success with big underdogs by riding either hot but non-elite pitchers and/or fading struggling star pitchers. Yet information overload had us finding a fly ball/ground ball ratio or walks/strikeout percentage that talked us out of the same kind of plays that for decades won for us.

Let there be no doubt whatsoever that ERA and WHIP are still the two most important statistics in foretelling future results of pitchers. Likewise in handicapping offense we have streamlined with great success. Just like for 20 plus years, we returned to utilizing on base percentage and slugging percentage foremost.

We never stop fine tuning our techniques but our introspection reminds us sometimes we need to remember “if it ain’t broken, don’t fix it”. Since returning to our roots in baseball handicapping, not-so-coincidently we have returned to the results our clients and we desire.

With all other sports, utilizing the Internet and cutting edge computer software is imperative to staying ahead of the curve, but MLB is the clear exception. Baseball handicapping is much like playing the game: master the basic fundamentals.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

A few years back we wrote an article on the importance of evaluating how teams hit left-handed and right-handed pitchers. In summary, we surmised it was important, yet keeping in perspective, we demonstrated how the numbers can be greatly affected by random chance. Hence we warned about becoming too dependant on deceptive statistics that are so often fools gold.

We have very similar thoughts about comparing ballpark statistics. There are some stadiums that could be classified as “pitchers’ ballparks” while others could reasonably be labeled more friendly to hitters.

Yet again, we have to give props to the four-letter evil empire ESPN. In their fantasy baseball section, they have a straight-forward “Park Factor” that compares that rate of stats at home versus the rate of stats on the road. A rate that is higher than 1.000 favors the hitter, with lower than 1.000 favoring the pitcher.

Still, statistical reliability would assume the quality of the opponent has been equal at home and on the road. Random chance indicates some teams will face or use a disproportionate number of aces and No. 2 starters in one location. This deviation is just one example.

Then there is wind direction. Perhaps several teams have had the wind blowing in straight from center a higher percentage while other squads has an overbalanced number blowing out to leftfield.

Why, according the ESPN Ballpark Factor, is Boston the top hitters’ park this year, but was 13^th last season?

As of this writing, Rogers Centre in Toronto is the second best pitchers park, yet last year it was a hitters paradise ranking 7^th in hitting (24^th pitching).

Petco Park is a rare exception. They are currently the top pitcher’s ball orchard after finishing first each of the previous three years and third in 2003.

So how do the elite gamblers use the stats? To measure the reliability of pitchers’ splits is how we employ them. For example, virtually every Padre is going to have statistically better stats at home than on the road, so there is no angle in the fact Chris Young, Greg Maddux, and David Wells for example do.

Yet Jake Peavy is actually a better pitcher on the road than at home. This is an advantage for the gambler. A pitcher’s splits are most effective when measured against the ballpark stats.

Is there an edge for the over/under better? Often short-term, but rarely is the edge long-term as the sportsbooks adjust. As of June 19, the Padres last eight road games and 11-of-12 has seen a posted total of 8.0 or higher.

Yet 15 of their last 18 home games have seen a total of 7.5 or lower. Thinking somehow the sportsbooks are oblivious to such angles is one way for a gambler to subsidize bookmakers.

The Park Factor statistic is a valuable handicapping weapon, but more for statistical validation. Those who think they’ve found the Holy Grail with stadium comparisons are not in the same ballpark as the sharpies.

Brand new features: live odds, matchups from StatFox and Sports DataBases, injuries, free picks and more. Click here. Approved sportsbooks are at www.linetrackers.com

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Sharp players examine our daily news and notes on OffshoreInsiders.com. Among the other crib sheets we compile in-house are our pro-active sports gambling “Watch Lists”. These are nuggets on what to look for based on drastic changes and recent trends by specific teams. Most importantly, we analyze how the teams and oddsmakers will adapt accordingly.

Update: Mets top hitters are getting healthy. Shawn Green is returning from the DL and David Wright is red hot.

Insight: The Mets June swoon has been a team effort—or lack thereof. Their pitching and offense have both been dreadful. However, last year the Mets offense was able to conceal their pitching deficiencies. Often having a margin of error is the difference for borderline set-up men being effective and not being successful.

Shawn Green was one of the Mets most productive hitters before going on the DL. He returns just as David Wright is swinging the bat well. This will take some of the heat off of slumping Carlos Delgado.

Their offense will come around and with a larger margin of error their mediocre bullpen will pitch better. It’s time to stop fading the Mets and ride the domino effect.

Update: Houston ousted closer Brad Lidge is back in a groove. He’s given up just three earned runs in his last 26 1/3 IP and has tentatively regained the role as closer.

Insight: In the name of full disclosure, as we are finishing off our article, Lidge gave up that third run to blow a save. But blowing a one-run lead aside, he is pitching much better. Lidge can be among the game’s best. A reliable closer is important not just for the obvious reasons, but also psychological reasons. Among them is that nothing can be as disconcerting as consistently blowing leads. The damaging snowball effect leads to prolonged slumps. If Lidge is back, the Astros have their edge back. We look for underachieving Houston to finally get on a roll.

Update: Roger Clemens is back, but the jugs gun says his fastball is not.

Insight: Clemens was so/so against an offensively challenged Pirate team. Clemens has stated in the past he is a power pitcher and will never be a finesse hurler. We doubt if he can adjust the way a more willing Curt Schilling has. Ironically because Clemens gives the Yankees some swagger, he may actually help them more in games he doesn’t pitch.

For those raising their eyebrows and saying how little sense that makes, be aware, we are huge believers in the Yogi-ism of “90 percent of the game is half mental”. This is more so in baseball where teams play every day. Sometimes it takes either a wake-up call or an emotional lift to turn a season around. That’s why we know from experience that getting arguably the greatest pitcher of all time will help the Yanks even when he’s not in the ballpark. Getting him past his prime though could mean good investment opportunities going against him when he pitches.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and is the Chief Analyst for Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com. Since his “JD of the ACC” scorephone days, he has been accepted as the top underdog and small favorite handicappers in the industry.

Anyone who has followed me over the years knows I preach that small favorites and underdogs are where the best value can be found in betting baseball odds. Who would have thought in a million years that I’d be looking at Randy Johnson or the New York Yankees as undervalued?

But that’s where we are thanks to slow starts by both. One of our credos in betting all sports is the Yogi Berra-ism of “90 percent of the game is half-mental”. Getting Roger Clemens into the starting rotation will pay wonders for them, not just in games he pitches.

He can be a true stopper, a pitcher who can end a team’s funk with a pitching gem. Underachieving teams are so often buoyed by a manager firing, major trade, or in this case, midseason free agent addition.

Admittedly, Johnson being undervalued will be short-lived. Just as your sportsbook was releasing odds reflective of the gambler’s belief that Johnson finally was showing his age, the future first-ballot Hall-of-Fame has been untouchable in his last four starts.

He’s given up four earned runs in his last 23 2/3 IP allowing 16 hits and just one walk. His .675 WHIP in those four starts is spectacular.

Whether it’s an overachieving or underachieving player or team, sharp players know that over a 162-game schedule, more times than not, they will play back to their mean. A high profile pitcher and a high profile team top our list of current entities bettors must keep a sharp eye on.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Over the years I’ve heard a common faulty theory regurgitated when either a game has a large pointspread or even more commonplace when a contest involves two teams that play opposite tempos. It entails an if-then-else statement in which both the side and total are essentially handicapped jointly.

“If you like the big favorite you have to like the over, but if you like the big dog, you have to like the under,” the myth goes. Even more humdrum is “If you like the up-tempo team to cover, you have to like the over,” and I’m sure you can figure out what follows.

In a classic illustration, I saw this drivel rear its ugly head on gambling posting boards before the Spurs-Suns series. Phoenix of course plays the chaotic full-court style where the shot clock is almost irrelevant. The Spurs play a classic half-court style where shots are generally taken with the shot clock at single digits. Even the newspaper hacks and talking heads on television recited the groupthink that a fast-paced game would benefit the Suns and a slow-paced game would be to the advantage of the Spurs.

Game 5 between San Antonio and Phoenix ended with the side being a push. For our purpose, that’s convenient because that was the now infamous game in which the Suns Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw were suspended, hence from a handicapping standpoint, the results should be thrown out.

Of the remaining five games, San Antonio won and covered three of them. All three went over the total. Phoenix won and covered two, both of which went under the total. All five results, of course, went against the conventional so-called logic.

This is consistent with my observations over the years. Unless there is a push, there are four possible combinations of a side and total: Team A and the under, Team A and the over, Team B and the under and Team B and the over. Random chance suggests the if-then-else fairy tale has a 50 percent chance of being right because it says of the possible four combinations it will likely be one of two possibilities. My educated observations says every time I hear this theory espoused, one of the two alleged to be likely combinations hits less than 50 percent of the time.

I always handicap sides and totals as separate entities. If anything, based on experience, I feel more comfortable if I pick the ball control team to cover and the over, or the fast-paced team and the under.

The domino effect of course is not going to be as overwhelming as the Suns-Spurs series illustrates, but that example is closer to the rule than the exception.

A big believer in contrarian handicapping, as explained in previous articles, I can’t say there is necessarily such an angle here. But the invaluable lesson is to not inhibit handicapping by subscribing to the popular fallacy.

Here is the if-then-else truth for sports bettors. If you rid of the aforesaid robotic fairy tale, then your chances of winning are much greater.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com which now has the best free sports gambling match-ups, free picks, databases and more.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

The hottest statistic among baseball handicappers utilized in evaluating offenses is on base percentage plus slugging percentage (OPS). This is not a new statistic among sharpies, and in fact was overlooked for a few decades by baseball itself. I first heard about it in the mid-1970s when Steven Mann, a statistician for the Houston Astros, was touting said numerator on a radio sports talk show I was listening to. I employed and tested this statistic to capture a few Strat-o-Matic championships in my formative years. Who says youth is wasted on the young?

I’ve always put forth that the proper Triple Crown in baseball should be on base percentage, slugging average and runs produced. In that vain, the streamlined stat of OPS is finally being noticed by the masses.

In fact, the growingly more sophisticated gaming public is finally paying additional attention to offensive statistics. This is bad news for the books because Johnny Q. Public used to throw his money away simply betting little more than just starting pitcher’s ERA statistics with an extra emphasis on a hurler’s last three starts.

According to Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com, the online sports betting syndicate, the hot gauge now for pitchers is comparing his batting average against (OAV) overall against to his OAV with balls in play.

Many of the cutting edge handicappers they monitor take the two quoted stats and compare it to the league average to find disparities. “The thought is if a pitcher’s overall batting average against ranks much higher than his batting average against with balls in play, he is pitching better than his stats because the fielders behind him are not playing as well as they should be.”

Of course if a pitcher does better relative to the rest of the league with balls in play than he does overall, the supposition among the avant-garde gamblers is that the pitcher has benefited from good fortune. Hence rough days lay ahead for the hurler.

McCormick says the top services parse the information to their exact liking in their own private databases, but that Yahoo! Sports (sports.yahoo.com) does the best job of any free public site comparing and contrasting that day’s pitchers’ stats to both the league average and league leader.

If there is one consideration that has seen some depreciation in value recently, it’s the ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB:FB). Ground ball pitchers will always be more affective than fly ball pitchers, but the statistic is no longer the silver bullet data all but guaranteeing impending doom.

“First it was supposed to be juiced balls then we realized it was juiced players,” says Jerry Malcolm of CasinoBettingNews.com. “Regardless, a fly ball is not nearly as poisonous now that the power numbers are stabilizing.”

As in any sport, the elite gamblers look beyond mere numbers-crunchers. An uber-popular book and arguably the Bible for scrutinizing and exploiting baseball statistics is “Moneyball: the Art of Winning an Unfair Game” by Michael Lewis. Oh how true that title is for the gambler who masters the mathematical art.

Joe Duffy during his Cadillac Club scorephone days developed the reputation as the top baseball underdog handicapper in the business. His plays are now exclusive on OffshoreInsiders.com

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

At the start of the NBA playoffs, there was no shortage of the “defense wins championships” articles. One of the toutspeak clichés is so fundamentally flawed, I can only thank them for keeping the books in business for the rest of us.

It goes along the lines of: look at the stats, scoring is way down in the postseason in the NBA, therefore defense is more important. I don’t consider myself an expert on commodities investments, but the basic fact is if the demand for a commodity stays the same, but the supply goes down, the value of having that commodity goes up. The more of that commodity that one has, the better off the investor is. However, if such asset became more easily obtainable, the worth of it decreases.

That’s exactly how it is with the ability to score crucial points in the NBA playoffs. There is no question defensive intensity rises immensely in the playoffs. The commodity of scoring points is much more difficult to come by than they are against lackluster five-cities-in-seven-nights regular season defenses.

Therefore the worth of the commodity of clutch scoring goes up in the postseason, not down.

Recent historic fact No. 1: The 2007 Miami Heat became the first team in NBA history to win a championship only to get swept in the first round the following year. Yet defensively they were superior to their championship year, jumping from 13^th in the league to eighth. However offensively they did a freefall going from sixth to 28^th, third worst in the NBA.

The Heat have two certified offensive superstars, Dwayne Wade and Shaquille O’Neal. The two played a combined 91 games this year because of various injuries and never, ever got in synch. Wade was rushed back for the postseason and Miami’s offensive lack of cohesion was indisputable.

They were better defensively in 2007 because they had to compensate. The end result to the better defense but much inferior offense was being on the wrong end of the historic sweep. Oh and when the Heat won the championship last year, which team lead the league in defense? Recent historic fact No. 2: It was the Memphis Grizzlies who set an all-time mark for consecutive postseason losses. Yes, the league’s numero uno defense set the bar for playoff incompetence.

Do not get me wrong, defensive and offensive rankings as we have stated time and time again are extremely deceptive in football and basketball. Points per game are much more indicative of tempo than of competence. Fast break teams will always appear “offensive oriented” and half court teams “defensive oriented” to the uneducated eye.

However there was no significant pace-of-the-game adjustment for Miami from last year to this year with Wade and O’Neal playing musical MASH unit, so there is at least an apples to apples comparison.

Recent historical fact, No. 3: based on disparity in winning percentage, the Dallas Mavericks became victims of the biggest upset in NBA playoff history when they were not just beaten, but dominated by the Golden State Warriors. Said the media, this of course was the year that Avery Johnson was finally able to exorcise Dallas of the offensive mindset Don Nelson that poisoned them with for years. The transition to offensive-oriented to defensive-minded was complete. And so was their season completed—very quickly.

Oh and the team that beat them was the worst defensive team in the NBA—Golden State coached by Don Nelson. There is no epiphany needed. Any debate is fruitless. The foremost reason for the Mavericks failure was that their premier offensive player Dirk Nowitzki went AWOL, while Golden State put up a clinic in outside shooting.

Anyone who tries to spin it differently, I want to book their plays.

We are, as we admitted using deceptive rankings that are based simply on points per game. But we are using the same data the cliché mongers use in order to refute them.

However the fact is that I am anything but a proponent of a frenetic pace. A great offense in basketball means very good complimentary offensive players that can consistently score clutch baskets, and here is the kicker: in the half-court offense.

The San Antonio Spurs, contrary of the misleading rankings, fit our definition as well as any team in the NBA. The uneducated eye would look merely at points per game, oblivious to the fact they place a strict half court offense. But with the game on the line Tony Parker getting the ball to Tim Duncan or Manu Ginobili is a pretty powerful combo. Of course, David Robinson was also part of the initial championship team.

Robert Horry is not called “Big Stop Bob” it’s “Big Shot Bob”. They also have Michael Finley and before him Steve Kerr.

Look at any of the modern championship teams. They may play different styles, but they all have one thing in common—prime time offensive players. From O’Neal and Wade, to Jordan and Pippen, O’Neal and Bryant, Olajuwon, Drexler and Cassell, Johnson, Jabber and a sensational supporting cast, Bird, McHale and Johnson, Erving, Malone and Toney. They all had a lot more success in the postseason than the phenomenal defensive pairing of Mookie Blaylock and Dikembe Mutombo, Bobby Jones and Caldwell Jones, Paul Pressey and Sidney Moncrief.

In fact, going back to the late 70s, if not well beyond, the least impressive 1-2 offensive punch from an NBA Champion would be Chauncey Billups and Rick Hamilton from the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons. Yet anyone who actually watched that particular playoffs can attest that duo’s ability to get the big basket

Phoenix does have enormous offensive talent, but frankly will have to overcome their chaotic style of play to capture the ring. There is no question they have the substance, but may lack the style to win it all.

The simple fact is every single NBA Champion will have the extremely rare commodity of at least two legitimate big time go-to players who can make the big shot and/or the big pass when the game on the line.

That’s a commodity that’s rare, but not as rare as the professional gambler who is conscious of this fact.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

My articles are syndicated on many sites. About this time last year, I watched as on one of the fine sites there was a not-so-subtle back and forth of the validity of the so-called zigzag NBA playoff system.

The method simply says go with the team off of a loss. A critic came back after the first week or so gleaming over the fact the technique zagged and sagged more than it zigged. It lost money. Then as the playoffs went on, the proponent got the last laugh while the cynic wrote articles on other topics telling you he is smarter than everyone else.

Having been in the industry since the 1980s and having been a supporter of computer systems since prominent statistician Dr. Mike Orkin wrote his Pointspread Analyzer software, where does Center of the Handicapping Universe GodsTips.com stand?

We agree with the theory, but less so the etched-in-stone considerations. First of all, let us give a quick refresher of the difference. A system can be measured objectively because the parameters are concrete. The zigzag is an example. Going with a double digit favorite off a single digit loss would be another hypothetical.

Of course there can be modest variances depending on when and where a database gathers lines, but over any statistically significant period it does not make a huge difference.

A theory is much like a system but does not have objective parameters. Our theory is the better the team is that the zigzag system favors and the bigger the margin the loss was, the more compelling it is to “go with the team off a loss”.

True one could come up with a system to measure our upgrading of the methodology. An example would be going with a team with a winning percentage of .575 or higher off a loss of eight or more. The problem is we believe a mental sliding scale combining and most importantly, weighing the two factors works best. It allows for a mixing and matching of the two parameters.

For example, this year as in most years, it would not apply or would only be weighed slightly if we are talking about the bottom three seeds in each conference off a loss. There is a reason they are called “mismatches”.

No. 4 versus five and the next three rounds of the playoffs (barring huge first round upsets), it is weighed much heavier. Remember we told you the mocker grew conspicuously quieter as the postseason went on. Now you know why.

It’s one of those theories that almost make too much sense. During the regular season of every sport we remind you of the Golden Rule to not merely go with the “team that needs it more” if said team is fighting just to make the playoffs.

We call attention to the fact if a team were proficient at winning “must win” games they would not be playing in must-win games late in the year.

Conversely, a one through five seed, especially as the playoffs go deeper, has shown the ability to rebound from adversity and respond when their backs are to the wall.

To the handicapper there is a titanic difference between desperate elite teams and equally desperate inferior teams playing in a crucial contest. It’s like the difference between seeing Jennifer Lopez and Rosie O’Donnell in a string bikini.

Okay, I don’t follow the analogy myself, but the exemplification of the distinction is infallible. From a handicapping standpoint one can’t measure the success of the zigzag if Phoenix coming off a loss is given the same weight (no pun intended Rosie) as Washington or Golden State following a setback.

Likewise, the margin of the loss is applicable for at least two obvious reasons. As we have said many times, nothing affects public perception more than the last game they have seen. It’s not uncommon for a blowout in the previous game to influence an opening line by 2-3 points and more times than not, the closing line by more.

Plus, no matter how motivated and well-coached a squad is, it defies human nature to approach a game with as much vengeance off a 22-point win as it is for the team off the huge setback.

So to friends and foes alike of zigzag, a .700 or better team off a loss is not even close to being the same as the below .520 teams zigging. Nor is mindset the same for a team that lost a game that went down to the wire the same as one that got humiliated on national television.

Others can debate the “system” but we will tell you the rationale behind it has a lot of validity if and only if the caveats are utilized and the impact applied appropriately.

OffshoreInsiders.com will have Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com premium plays throughout the NBA playoffs, while JoeDuffy.net will supply late breaking injury news for free.

Joe Duffy (OffshoreInsiders.com)

The burgeoning betting scandal of former Toledo running back Harvey “Scooter” McDougle Jr. has again brought to the forefront the evergreen discussion and debate of the frequency of game fixing and point shaving.

The answers as to the questions how common it is and by who will probably be forever elusive. Professor Justin Wolfers, of the respected Wharton School, did a study which concludes point shaving is quite prevalent in college basketball. We critiqued that study in another article and while we disagree with his conclusions, clearly a man of his credentials cannot easily be discounted.

But in this article we want to bring to light the fallacies in a common presumption. Most seem to assume pointspread chicanery is limited to giving money to an athlete, coach or official in return for altering the betting result of a game.

Some naively believe at the professional sports level this is unlikely to happen, especially with those who affect the outcome of the game the most, the athletes.

The prevailing thought is a high-priced athlete has too much to lose and the amount of payola required would be cost prohibitive to the potential game fixer. That in theory should be true, but one would probably be giving athletes more credit for good judgment than they deserve.

But mere dollars and cents are far from the only type of inducement one could employ for skullduggery.

Talk about burgeoning scandals; is there anyone among us who doesn’t believe the steroid uproar has barely scratched the surface? What if just one influential supplier of performance enhancing drugs were a high-stakes bettor?

He’s got coveted contraband. He’s got direct communication with significant athletes. You do the math.

Did somebody say scandal? It seems every decade or so we find out about a Madam to the multi-millionaires. Apparently the rich and powerful are willing to bequeath significant funds to acquire the services of a sweet painted lady. What might an amorous athlete being willing to do for the executive concubine service? A friend once told me “dames are trouble”. Are you getting the picture?

Do you think there may be some drug use among professional athletes? What would an athlete who wants only the best and hottest designer drugs do? A little information to crush the online sportsbook perhaps? This may come as a shock, but I hear not all drug peddlers walk a straight and narrow line. What kind of favors could the drug trafficker get from a desperate burnout who needs his fix? Did I just say “fix”?

But that’s not even adding blackmail to all of the above. What if a money player had overwhelming incriminating information concerning a player being involved in any of the aforementioned vices? Hush money is not cheap and it may just come in the form of a favor or two rather than in a briefcase of dollar bills.

Yet another bombshell in the news recently was the coming out book of former NBA player John Amaechi. When the ex-journeymen admitted he was gay, it brought a lot of discussion as to the likelihood of a current athlete coming out of the closest. Current and former players, coaches and coach potatoes alike agreed an active player would risk serious ostrasization and many other ramifications to come out.

What if a gambling extortionist wanted, instead of financial shake down, some in-game kickbacks?

How about the same with a married player with an active black book—a player who wouldn’t want his marriage turned into a public and bitter multi-million dollar divorce settlement?

No, it’s not my “hypothetical confession” of how I would have bribed an athlete “if I did it”. But having been in the business since the 1980s, one does hear things. Most, perhaps all is mere gossip and hearsay. However, one thing I can say for certainty to those who believe professional athletes would unlikely be on the take because the risk/return factor is too great. Don’t bet on it.

Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, has been an expert guest on Sporting News Radio, the Gambler’s Zoo and several other network and internet radio shows. Media inquiries to media@joeduffy.net

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

As we approach the homestretch in the NBA, we celebrate that it’s a very profitable time for sharp players. This is in no small part because the oddsmakers adjust to false public perception. Betting urban legends are quite popular this time of the year.

As is the case in every sport, it’s the time of the season that Joeybagofdonuts looks at the playoff races and simply goes with the “team that needs it more”. Sharp players meanwhile will collect big time going with true spoilers against teams in must-win situations.

First off all let us define the terms. A “true spoiler” is an organization that has no chance of making the playoffs and whose biggest wins henceforth can only be raining on somebody else’s parade. “We are not talking about a top level team playing spoiler against the No. 9 team in the conference” emphasizes Curt Thomas, lead NBA handicapper of GodsTips.com.

Likewise a “must win” applies “only to teams fighting for a playoff spot, not those simply jockeying for homecourt advantage,” adds Thomas.

Remember, bad teams have players fighting for their jobs in many cases. Fear is a great motivator and the desire to extend a seven-figure-a-year career can invigorate a player more than the thought of extending the season.

This is not necessarily across-the-board. A veteran team such as Minnesota could have their key players thinking of simply getting the season over with.

This is why in contests involving also-rans or desperate teams we take recent form much more into consideration than we do all other circumstances.

As is the case all year, deceptive straight-up records are exploited when compared to scoring margins. However, there are a lot more outplay factors this time of the year than any other point of the season because of the aforesaid false motivation perceptions knocking the line even more out of whack.

We can’t say it enough—straight up records is the most overused statistic in ATS handicapping. Successful betting isn’t about who wins the game, but who covers the spread. Those who keep the books in business pay so little attention to the much more significant margin statistic.

Let us move onward to more proactive betting secrets. Detroit, Dallas, Phoenix and San Antonio are veteran teams that will use the late-season to fine tune for the playoffs. We will look to fade those teams as huge chalks, especially against bad teams that have shown recent competitiveness. Again by that we mean close losses to quality teams, not necessarily straight up wins.

If we ever decided to do a sports gambling version of Snopes.com, we could start with late season NBA betting truths and myths.

In fact, lucky for you, we just did.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Here is an edited look at one of the internal crib sheets compiled on a daily basis by the staff of GodsTips.com. It’s a proactive view of what tendencies sharpies should look for in upcoming days.

Update: Knicks injuries and turmoil both on rise. It is possible Quentin Richardson and David Lee are out for the year.

Insight: We do not subscribe to any conspiracy theories about teams tanking it. As a general rule of thumb, the best value for teams this time of the year is with bad teams. The quality teams are overvalued, but Knicks are a bad team we look to fade.

Owner Jeff Dolan foolishly extended overwhelmed coach Isaiah Thomas’ contract and coach is using injuries as an excuse for failure rather than a rallying cry for success. Plus they have the injuries that sharp players exploit—that is to key players, but non-superstars, injuries that sneak under the radar: Jamal Crawford, David Lee and Quentin Richardson.

Update: The Detroit Pistons will use the final month to fine tune.

Insight: Pistons’ fanatic Brian Gould of CasinoBettingNews.com said that the Pistons offense is out of synch lately because of nagging injuries. “Chauncey Billups is hurting, Rasheed Wallace missed five games and Rip Hamilton is showing signs he needs rest,” said Gould.

With seven of their last 12 games at home, Detroit will be laying some generous numbers, while they work out some kinks and get ready for the playoffs. There should be some good opportunities to take the points going against the Pistons.

Update: Cleveland went 8-0 when rookie guard Daniel Gibson was hurt, but are 1-3 SU since his return.

Insight: This is another example of the importance of chemistry. Coach Mike Brown’s rotation is going haywire trying to find the right combination. Gibson for his part has been a shell of himself shooting just nine percent from the field since his return.

Obviously sharp players will keep a close eye in his progress. Yet again, it’s not LeBron James that the wise guy focuses on, but a key player whose slumps and contributions will be overlooked.

Update: The four teams battling for the last two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference are a combined 15-33 this month.

Insight: Yet again, like we say, one of the biggest myths in gambling is betting on the team that “needs it more”. Any team that is fighting for a playoff spot in the inferior East clearly has not performed during the year when it counts. True spoilers meaning teams that are out of the playoff picture but can rain of some other team’s parade will be a bettor’s goldmine when they play Orlando, New York, New Jersey and Indiana.

Winding up another winning college postseason, Center of the Handicapping Universe GodsTips.com will be researching pro basketball and baseball from every conceivable proactive angle to ensure you year-round winning.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

The latest breaking sports betting industry news at CasinoBettingNews.com

Pittsburgh-UCLA

Pitt guard Mike Cook missed practice time this week after playing just seven minutes in the second half Sunday because of a bruised knee. However, he said he will play against the Bruins. UCLA will be performing in their home state, while the Panthers traveled 2,600 miles. Teams playing in their home state in the NCAA Tournament are 70-15 SU.

Pittsburgh has the size advantage led by 7-footer Aaron Gray. UCLA’s tallest starter is 6-8 Alfred Aboye, who is playing out of position.

Texas A&M-Memphis

A&M is playing a virtual home game against a Memphis team that will travel 726 miles. The game is in San Antonio where the Aggie football team drew 64,583 fans against Army. What we just informed you about UCLA also apply to the Aggies: teams playing in their home state in the NCAA Tournament are 70-15 SU.

Memphis has played just three games versus quality opponents in front of hostile crowds. They lost at Tennessee 76-58, at Arizona 79-71, but edged Gonzaga at Spokane Arena 78-77.

Vanderbilt-Georgetown

Vanderbilt has done well in revenge this year, beating both Georgia and Florida in second meetings after losing the initial clash. Such applies in this game as in their season opener, the Commodores lost to Georgetown 86-70.

Ohio State-Tennessee

On Jan. 13 these two teams met. Leading with 26.5 seconds remaining, Tennessee missed a pair of front ends of one-and-one situations allowing Ohio State to escape with a narrow win 68-66.

Perhaps that’s good news for Tennessee, which is 3-0 in rematches this year if they lost the initial meeting. The revenge victories were to Florida, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Tennessee is tested, having played six of the Sweet 16 teams.

Butler-Florida

Florida has a huge height mismatch led by top NBA prospects and likely lottery picks 6-11 Joakim Noah and 6-10 Al Horford. The Bulldogs have no starters bigger than 6-7. Butler’s best player A.J Graves is in a 9-for-34 shooting slump.

Kansas-Southern Illinois

Kansas won their first two games by an average of 26 points per game. Averaging 79.5 points per game entering the tournament, the Jayhawks have averaged 97.5 in the Big Dance thus far.

However, SIU entered having allowed just 56.5 points per game and have surrendered a measly 49.5 in the first two games.

Matt Shaw, Southern Illinois’ third-leading scorer and No. 2 rebounder missed Sunday’s game with an ankle injury, breaking a string of 82 straight starts. He is questionable Thursday.

UNLV-Oregon

The Running Rebels are 22-1 this year when not playing on their opponent’s home court.

Joe Duffy of GodsTips.com continues to be Mr. March, entering the Sweet 16 on 6-1 Big Dance run. Check out his premium picks on OffshoreInsiders.com

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Major League Baseball announced that for the first time ever, baseballs must be stored at a uniform temperature. Some clubs will be using humidors, while all will have some kind of temperature controlled facility.

Thanks to the thin air of Denver, the Colorado Rockies Coors field was easily the source of the most runs of any ballpark in the Majors for their first eight years of existence. In three of the last four years, they fell to second. The perception is that the significant drop in runs traces back to the fact that Colorado installed a humidor in 2002 to store the baseballs.

The numbers support this assessment. Coors Field averages dropped to an all-time low of 10.7 last year, as opposed to 15 runs at its peak in 1996.

But what are the consequences for gamblers? “The intention and likely result is uniformity,” states Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com. “The early consensus is the variances from stadium to stadium will be much less than ever.”

Speaking of uniformity, it is also the first time teams are mandated to use baseballs manufactured in the current year.

Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com thinks scoring will be down. “The sample in Colorado is statistically significant enough to believe the trend will repeat itself across the board”. But he adds gamblers may not want to forget that the ramifications of the long-overdue crackdown on steroids will be felt gradually, not overnight as many baseball fans foolishly assumed.

“If, as widely believed, power totals were greatly bloated because of the use of steroids, the concentrated effort to eliminate steroids will not un-ring a bell.” Vincent notes that players who bulked up because of years of being on the juice “were not going to become 90 pound weaklings just because they stopped.”

Vincent believes with each offseason in which players do not use steroids, the power totals will slowly move back to rates of 15-25 years ago.

McCormick cautions that the sharp player will have a limited window to exploit. “If run production is down, posted totals will quickly drop accordingly.”

“The oddsmakers know what they are doing,” he reminds us.

Going back to his “JD of the ACC” scorephone days, Joe Duffy has been considered the undisputed king of the underdogs and small favorites. Now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, his plays are exclusively part of GodsTips.com.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Here are some sharp player highlights from our clipboard.

UCLA-Weber State

UCLA has emphasized defense in their practices since their first-round elimination in the Pac 10 tournament. In their first 22 games, the Bruins allowed 41.9 percent shooting, but in their last nine, opponents made 46.9 percent of their shots.

Gonzaga-Indiana

Remember, Gonzaga is without big time player Josh Heytvelt because of a drug arrest. He is their second leading scorer. They lost their first home game in their last 50 without him and the absence of the 6-11 center has forced the Bulldogs to go with a four-guard offense.

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi-Wisconsin

For those looking for a 15 seed over second seed upset, according to Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com, “Most experts I talk to believe Wisconsin is as vulnerable of a second seed in a long time” pointing to the fact they are only 3-3 SU in their last six.

Jackson State-Florida

Despite their No. 1 seed, Florida players are singing the “no respect” tune, so they may be looking to make a statement Friday. Center Al Horford says his left ankle is still bothering him but it’s nothing serious and he will play.

Duke-Virginia Commonwealth

VCU has top notch guards and Duke has struggled against such teams as of late. In their current three-game losing streak the Blue Devils have allowed 57 assists, not to mention 85 points or more each game.

Wright State-Pittsburgh

Few teams were more drastically improved from the first part of the year than Wright State. They started out 5-6 including losses to Coastal Carolina and Chicago State, not to mention getting trounced 71-45 by LSU. They are 18-3 since, including 11-1 their last 12. A major part of the turnaround is the emergence of freshmen Vaughn Duggins and Todd Brown, two of their four leading scorers.

Vanderbilt-George Washington

In great part due to an injury to Alan Metcalfe, the Commodores started out 1-3 which included a loss to lowly Furman at home. They have since beaten six ranked teams en rout to their third 20-win season in four years.

Old Dominion-Butler

Old Dom has won 12-of-13 entering the tournament. They defeated Georgetown 75-62. Their slow start to the year at 12-7 was in no small part due to adjusting to the graduation of two All-Conference players from last season.

Villanova-Kentucky

Oft injured Villanova point guard Mike Nardi has a bone scan on his injured ankle. It revealed nothing but a sprain and he expects to be close to full strength. Kentucky is tested, having played 14 games versus 11 foes that are in the Field of 65.

UNLV-Georgia Tech

UNLV has a three-guard offense, a look Tech has not seen, but head coach Paul Hewitt says his team needs not to make adjustments.

Oral Roberts-Washington State

For those who love senior led team, Oral Roberts is for you. Caleb Green and Ken Tutt have a combined 4,490 career points. They also knocked off No. 1 seed Kansas 78-71 in Lawrence earlier this season.

For the best pointspread picks and the highest percentage of winners, visit Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

While so much focus is on the Big Dance, the true sharpies focus just as much if not more on the NIT Tournament. Often there are more opportunities because much like in the minor football bowls, elite sports betting experts take advantage of certain teams playing in a huge game for them against foes that are playing in a consolation tournament.

Of course we will take a look at the personnel match-ups, wait until the private and public databases, strengths of schedule and power ratings are updated through the Sunday finals, latest odds and match-ups.

But here are some major bullet points of great interest to pointspread players for NIT match-ups.

South Alabama-Syracuse

Syracuse has made no bones about it: they won’t exactly be fired up as they believe they should be in the NCAAs. Even head coach Jim Boeheim said, “It will be difficult for (the players) to get geared up” for the NIT.

The Orangemen made first round exits of the NCAA Tournament each of the last two appearances.

San Diego State-Missouri State

Often a team misses an at large bid to the big prize because they struggled down the stretch. Such is not the case for the Aztecs who enter this game winning 8-of-11. Missouri State played their worst against the best, going 1-7 against the top competition on their schedule.

Air Force-Austin Peay

Air Force enters ice cold, having lost four straight. No team went from likely in to out quicker than the Falcons and will face a challenge of regrouping.

Utah State-Michigan

Playing against a bigger conference foe won’t intimidate the Aggies. They went 6-4 against teams that made NCAA tournament, though none from BCS conferences. It’s Utah State’s eight straight tournament appearance, so the bright lights will not be a factor.

Toledo-Florida State

Florida State is 27-5 home SU the last two years. Toledo was just 5-12 SU outside the MAC. All 12 of FSU’s losses were to teams in the RPI Top 50 so they have feasted on non-elite teams.

NC State-Drexel

Though Drexel is widely considered the top snub, mid-major teams rarely look at the NIT as something as kissing their sister. Instead, they could be the proverbial team with a chip on their shoulder. They get an NC State team that should be tired after their near miraculous run in the ACC Finals fell short. State does not have a lot of depth and their players logged significant minutes.

Vermont-Kansas State

Sharp players will keep a close eye on any signs over the next couple of days as to whether the Wildcats disappointment will be a rallying cry or deflating heartbreak. If it’s an “us against the world,” look out. They are the first team in the modern era from a major conference to win at least 20 games, including 10 in their conference, but have to settle for the NIT.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com. During his days as legendary handicapper “JD of the ACC”, he developed the moniker of Mr. March for his 18 hour work days that have resulted in unprecedented college basketball postseason winning.

Here are some sharp player news and notes from the staff of OffshoreInsiders.com

Wednesday, March 7, 2007

Providence-West Virginia

West Virginia is 4-1 SU on neutral courts. However two of the neutral court wins were in Charleston, West Virginia. Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com reminds us, “One of the biggest blunders that square player makes is handicapping a neutral court as if it is a road game.” The square may overreact to West Virginia’s 2-6 road Big East mark.

St. John’s-Marquette

Although St. John’s will have the closest of any team to a home court advantage, they will enter this game without their leading scorer and rebounder Lamont Hamilton. He is a first-team all-Big East selection.

UAB-Marshall

It’s the seventh meeting in the last four years with UAB holding a 4-2 edge. However the teams split this year and the six games were decided by a total of just 40 points.

Arizona State-Washington

Washington enters with great momentum having beaten USC and UCLA. However the pressure is on as they likely will have to win four games in four days to make the NCAA Tournament. Seventeen of Washington’s 18 wins have come at home. Their only win away from home though was to ASU 66-61. This game is at the Staples Center in Los Angeles.

Arizona State was competitive down the stretch losing by a combined 10 points to Washington State, Arizona and UCLA.

Oregon State-California

The Golden Bears won both meetings, but each went to the last shot of regulation, one going to overtime.

Richmond-Fordham

Richmond did not play a neutral game, but went 2-11 SU on the road. Fordham enters on a four-game winning streak in which their offense got progressively better culminating in two games in which they shot 54.9 percent or better.

SMU-Southern Miss

Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com says the key to finding dark horses in March is betting on teams that lost a lot of close games during the regular season. SMU has six conference losses by five-points or less. The Mustangs are 2-0 on neutral sites beating Illinois State and McNeese State.

We will keep an eye on game day injury information. SMU closed out the year without three key players who could be back: Bamba Fall, Derrick Roberts and Devon Pearson. Fall is their best defensive player.

St. Louis-Duquesne

After being buoyed by changing to an up-tempo attack, the Dukes have dropped their last seven. Duquesne did win the only meeting this year to go to 4-1 all-time in the series. Over/under bettors will look to see which team can set the pace. Duquesne is an up-tempo team while the Bilikens play at a snail’s pace.

Thursday, March 8, 2007

Michigan State-Northwestern

Points will be tough to come by as Michigan State led the conference is virtually every defensive category, only once in 31 games allowing more than 47 percent. Northwestern is fourth in points per game defense, but ninth in the more accurate field goal percentage defense. Six of MSU’s 10 losses were by seven or fewer points.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com. In his scorephone days as “JD of the ACC” he was given the moniker of “Mr. March” for his 18 hour days and unparallel winning.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Our last article articulated our enthusiasm regarding an ESPN Insider series. It was scientific study that found common attributes on overachievement and underachievement teams in March Madness. We believe close scrutiny and application will only increase our “Lord of the Dance” status.

A great many of our articles, over the years, focused on exposing and fading gambling myths. But not all commonly held beliefs are untruths.

There were some trends that the research found are more in tune with perception. Perhaps topping the list is the importance of experience. Coaches with at least 10 tournament appearances and teams with at least four straight tournament bids did very well both in beating higher seeds or holding serve when they were the better seeded team.

However, not surprisingly “experience” was significantly more affective when combined with other top performing factors, such as frontcourt scoring ability, “star” power (if you didn’t read our previous article, defined as “All American”). This is consistent with what we’ve stressed for years. Having been there and done that is icing on the cake, but not the entire package by any means. In other words, a talented and seasoned team is better than a gifted newbie, but maturity in and of itself has little value if not backed by ability.

One finding that I’m not sure whether to categorize it as contrarian or widely accepted, but instead classify it under a more significant umbrella: invaluable foreknowledge. When united with other attributes, teams that enter the tournament on a one-game losing streak do exceptionally well in the tournament.

This should come as a surprise to nobody, though it likely does. We used the terminology of the study, but perhaps the term “streak” is a misnomer. Teams that enter the Dance off of one and only one loss obviously are not “streaking” in the wrong direction. This of course is not flawless. Hypothetically they could have lost 4-of-5 as an example, but it would be the exception. Capturing conference championship means winning three or four games in a row, usually in as many days and it the case of the big conferences, with as little as three days rest before the Field of 65.

A team off a loss is almost always an at-large team and will generally be better rested than the conference champs. A little wake-up call before the tournament starts will be a positive for a quality team. Let’s face it, teams that are good enough to make the Field of 65, somewhere along the line showed they have an ability to rebound from a one-game setback.

Not to mention, both the NCAA committee and the betting public can tend to overreact based on an early exit in the conference tournaments.

The ESPN quantitative analysis of course, was not gambling specific, so hence it will not produce direct and specific systems to apply. However, the trial and error has beyond reproach produced very advantageous rules of engagement for the sports gambler during March Madness pointspread betting.

Joe Duffy is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Over the years, we have written many articles exposing betting urban legends. We warned you about the guards dominate inductive non-thinking. In a football article, we enlightened gamblers of a truth that applies in all ATS sports gambling, “Actual straight up wins and losses have little bearing on handicapping”. Our article about how great offensive teams win big games was an epiphany for many.

Peter Tierana of ESPN.com has written a series of articles that are the “Top 10 indicators of overachievement” in the men’s basketball NCAA Tournament as well as the “bottom five” or more accurately stated: the top five indicators of underachievement.

Frankly little we read surprised us. Using objective numbers, ESPN measured “Performance against seed expectations” which simply put is a study of how often the higher seeded team wins, and what factors are most common when the lower seeded team wins.

Clients know we consider units won to be the most accurate way to measure a gambling system rather than winning percentage, because it takes sample size into consideration. We have decades of experience to prove that is more statistically reliable.

ESPN ranks their attributes based what they call PASE (performance against seeded expectations). At least from a handicapping standpoint, much like above, we consider the actual +/- wins to be the higher confidence level. Thus I used ESPN’s data but based statistical confidence using a different criterion.

Here’s a newsflash: most gamblers lose. In a related note, the overwhelming belief is “defense wins” championships and big games. We tell you time and time again, defensive intensity rises in the postseason making teams that can score big and tough baskets considerably more important.

Where’s Richard Dawson when you need him? Survey says teams that average scoring three points more than the tourney field are +46.8 victories. It is no surprise to us the highest +/- in the study using a single attribute.

Mercy me, guess what the worst +/- in the field is? Teams that have a points allowed per game below the tourney field average are -33.6 wins. The short of it is the biggest victim of upsets: superior defenses. The biggest culprits of pulling off upsets: superior offenses. Luckily for us, the subsidize-the-books gaming public believes it’s the polar opposite.

Teams with a margin of victory of 15 points or more had 244.7 “expected wins” but 288 actual wins, a +43.3 wins ratio. Margin is so much more accurate than wins and losses because luck plays no small part in winning or losing close games. Margin of victory validates a team’s truth strength. Of course from the gamblers standpoint, margin of victory is everything.

Tieran then did a follow-up article on “attribute pairings”. That is simply when combining two factors, what were the results. Of course because fewer games would be involved, by and large the +/- were not as high as when only one factor was needed. However PASE scores were generally higher.

The highest PASE of them all is at .509. It says teams that got more than 60 percent of the scoring from the frontcourt and at least one preseason All-American win at the most disproportionate rate relative to seed.

Like we said, so many teams have quality backcourts. There are so few teams have top level front courts. But those that do will advance in the Dance.

The “attribute pairings” in a modest surprise did though produce the highest +/-. Teams with more than four straight tourney bids and a one-game losing streak entering the tourney had 207.6 expected wins but 258 actual wins a +50.4 margin.

Not that the four-letter conglomerate needs any help from us, but ESPN Insider over the years has produced copious content of value to the sports investor. March Madness bracketology is high on the list of categories.

Be warned, the data takes a lot of time to synthesize, parse and apply to sports betting. Perhaps a better alternative is to find a professional handicapper who does it for you. Ahem.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

As you enjoy the All-Star break, the sideshows and the manlove debates, we want to share with you our crib sheet for the NBA second half. These are proactive trends we look to happen, rather than react when it’s too late:

Atlanta Hawks pick up the pace: The Hawks have played their best basketball in up tempo games. When we saw Coach Mike Woodson bring attention to this, we researched using the most important numbers.

They are an uncanny 7-2 SU when the total is 200 or higher. In slower paced games (199.5 or less) they are 14-29, so that stat is big. The fact they enter the break going over 8-4 represents an effort by the Hawks to pick up the pace. We look for Atlanta to run more up tempo, making the over an edge to keep an eye on.

Lamar Odom and Lakers benefit from the rest: The Lakers do not have a lot of talent beyond Kobe Bryant, who has had to be a one-man show too often this year. Lamar Odom finally looked like the player many expected the first 21 games of the year. He then went down with a knee injury. Since his return, his numbers are off: down 2.9 points from his pre-injury and he’s shooting a horrid 39.7 percent. According to Coach Phil Jackson, Odom is around 80 to 85 percent of his full strength.

No player will benefit from the break more than he. This is both mentally and physically. Because he is so valuable to the depth challenged Lakers, his return to 100 percent will be consequential and should sneak under the oddsmaker’s radar. We expect some extra value for the Lake Show after the break.

Mavericks will be a value to go against: Not exactly an exclusive story—the Mavericks are playing out of the collective skull. However, the oddsmakers noticed. Betting on Dallas right now is like purchasing the trendiest completely sold out video game a week before Christmas—no matter how hard you shop you will have to pay way over market value.

As we so often state, sharp players find line value in teams that often win without covering or lose while staying within the number. Assistant coach Del Harris expressed merely winning the division is not the Mavs priority. “We’re shooting for the big flag”. Look for Dallas to pace themselves as winning games handily will carry a low priority.

They can win games effortlessly and still fail in the wallet. God help the books if they go in a slump. Look for the Mavericks to miss the covering the number by a small margin very often from now until the regular season ends.

All-Star break a Bulls market: The Bulls staggered into the break. But they also finished out with a seven game road trip, followed by a close home loss, and then they flew through a blizzard before fading late to Charlotte.

They are a better team than that. Few teams need the break more than they do. We look for them to come out of the homestretch gate quickly.

Joe Duffy plays are on GodsTips.com. He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Sharp players examine our daily news and notes on OffshoreInsiders.com. Among the other crib sheets we compile in-house are our pro-active sports gambling “Watch Lists”. These are nuggets to look for based on drastic changes and recent trends by specific teams. Most importantly, we analyze how the teams and oddsmakers will adapt accordingly.

Update: Gonzaga 6-foot-11 forward Josh Heytvelt has been suspended following an arrest. One of the leading candidates for West Coast Conference player of the year, Heytvelt is averaging 15.5 points per game and 7.7 rebounds.

Insight: Initially Gonzaga will be a go-against especially after the short-term rally-around-adversity reaches the point of diminishing return. The Zags will be a bubble-team (meaning more pressure) without their key cog. This is a classic go-against proposition in particular when the Bulldogs play against teams in pure spoiler roles. Interpretation: underdogs looking for a defining win in an “everything to gain, nothing to lose” contest.

However, we look for the suspension to be short-lived as Heytvelt is too important. Teams with dominant big men do the best in conference play and the Big Dance (Florida last year, North Carolina and Illinois two years ago headline many examples). They again will be a dark horse if he returns and the Zags make the NCAA.

Update: Pacers continue to play up or down to the competition. Through Sunday Feb. 11 action, they are just 14-13 SU to teams with a .500 or worse record, seven of the losses at home. They are getting key swingman Marquis Daniels back.

Insight: This is what we preach: the best “splits” are from teams that are not affected by home court advantage, plus the Pacers are like we so often say “predictably unpredictable”. Pending other factors, we look to lean going with them against quality teams on the highway. Daniels is a guy, whose contribution will sneak under the radar, meaning often just inside the number.

Prior to his injury, he played his best basketball, averaging 13.2 points in 27 minutes in the five games before missing action.

Update: The UCLA real-time injury report is crucial for all sports bettors. They face a key road trip to Arizona and Arizona State and may be without starting center Lorenzo Mata and point guard Darren Collison.

Insight: The Bruins will be very vulnerable if they are with devoid of either starter. Freshman Russell Westbrook played miserably filling in for Collison, while Ryan Wright and Alfred Aboya proved to be a huge drop-off from Mata. The depth-challenged Bruins will likely lose both road games, yes even against Arizona State, if both of their starters are absent.

Update: Detroit is 10-2 SU with Chris Webber in the line-up. He has three double-doubles.

Insight: Ride Detroit against quality teams, especially on the road. Webber is playing in a honeymoon period that will likely last through the playoffs. Rejuvenated underachievers are a component we’ve exploited over the years. Also in the “90 percent of the game is half-mental” aspect, Detroit has convinced themselves lightning has struck twice. Detroit got Rasheed Wallace midseason 2004 en route to a championship and there are a lot of parallels to the current situation.

Joe Duffy is Senior Handicapper at GodsTips.com. His 18-hour days during the college postseason and the dividends it’s paid for clients have earned him the monikers of “Mr. March” and “the Lord of the Dance”. Get his free gambling news and notes at OffshoreInsiders.com

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

In many respects we believe experience can be overrated in handicapping college basketball. We subscribe to the John Wooden adage of “give me talent”. That is so much truer now than it was then. Wooden, of course, coached when freshman were not eligible and when star players did not go to the NBA early.

This is not to say though, that experience is irrelevant. Having participated successfully in the big games is a significant factor when fused with talent.

As a point of fact, UCLA and Kansas have no seniors among their top eight players in terms of minutes played. Ohio State certainly depends a great deal on a mega-talented group of freshmen. North Carolina two years ago lost every starter from a national championship team and now seven of their top eight players are freshman or sophomores.

But avoiding the temptation to go with a big underdog based on the sole fact of seniority is one reality the smart player has to be aware of, especially this time of the year. It’s a factor that gets overanalyzed come conference play and even more so in the Big Dance and NIT.

The fact is that squads with young players in key roles generally develop the most as the year goes on.

That being said, here is a “we report, you decide” list of the most and least experienced of the top teams in the country. You be fair and balance the upside/experience ratio as we approach when the part of the season when the pressure cooker heats up.

We already referenced above, UCLA, Kansas and North Carolina are dependant on youth.

Among the current Top 10 teams, Florida has two seniors and four juniors. The Gators beg the question of what kind of experience does a team have? Florida of course has the encounter of winning it all. That is quite the far cry from the proverbial and inevitable mid-major senior-heavy team that becomes the chic dark horse in the NCAA tournament because they start four or five three and four-year players who have never gotten beyond the second round of the Big Dance.

Again, all numbers preceding and following are centered on the top eight players based on minutes played. Wisconsin has three seniors and two juniors among their top eight. Only one input player is a freshman.

Experience lovers: Butler is your team with three seniors and four juniors. Also, Pittsburgh has three seniors and three juniors playing among the top eight.

All in all, in late February and March, give me an underdog with an upside, a young cocky team too naïve to know they are not supposed to win.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com. He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Handicapping techniques can be loosely grouped into evaluating teams in three categories: class, motivation, and form.

Class meaning the quality of the respective teams, form is recent play and I hope motivation is apparent.

One may immediately ask about injuries. That is covered under the “class” umbrella as the sharp player makes adjustments to roster changes, be it trade, injury, star minor leaguer, surprising and disappointing performers, etc.

Motivation includes mental state. So letdowns, sandwich games, revenge, playoff ramifications are among the issues in said subset.

Form should be weighed in direct proportion to how often the sports play. In other words, baseball, which plays every day, is the sport where recent form is slanted the heaviest, while football is where we adjust it to the smallest value.

There is no perfect interval to rate form, but as we’ve said it should be number of days, not games in the apples-to-apples comparison. For example, in comparing recent form of the Lakers to the Spurs, most use last five games. We prefer the last 10 days.

Nothing can, for good or bad, alter recent form as much as time off. This explains why momentum is most important in baseball and least in football.

The old adage of cream rising to the top…or dung sinking to the bottom does have a great deal of truth to the handicapper. So across the board, quality is far and away the primary derivative in sports gambling.

The public tends to overreact to aberrational recent performance, especially in high profile game. The oddsmakers are aware of this. Hence the ability to see the big picture is one of the great qualities a gambler can have.

Famed British writer Daniel Finkelstein of The Times in the UK wrote concerning English soccer, “form is temporary, class is permanent.” We find this quite accurate in North American sports as well.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is the CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier source for professional handicapper selections.

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

I’ve already been asked by at least a baker’s dozen people about some of the best looking propositions. Get your mind out of the gutter, I mean on the Super Bowl. There is not much debate that few players will be under the microscope more than Chicago quarterback Rex Grossman. That’s why one bet that jumps out at us is under 19 completions by him.

The easy, but false, presumption is to think Indianapolis and a wide open shootout. It’s no secret that the Colts biggest weakness on defense has been against the run, albeit the return of Bob Sanders has buoyed that unit.

Still teams actually pass less against the Colts than they do against other teams. Indianapolis foes had a cumulative average of 18 completions on 31 passes, but when they play the Colts, foes throw about five fewer times, completing 17 passes. Do you expect Grossman to complete more than average?

With the successful and rested two-headed monster of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson, we look for the Bears to keep Grossman’s passes to a minimum. Rex himself will make sure most are incomplete.

Mark Gold of CasinoBettingNews.com has been betting proposition plays since 1977, when he lived in Las Vegas. He says without question the best bet is Colts receiver Marvin Harrison go under six receptions.

While teammate Peyton Manning has taken heat for folding in big games, even when Manning had his watershed game in the AFC Championships, Harrison had only four catches for 41 yards.

Gold says, “Because Harrison is so universally respected as a class act, he has avoided the postseason scrutiny. But the facts are that many of his worst games have been the big ones.”

Also keep in mind, that Manning’s outdoor playoff record still leaves a lot to be desired so a lean towards the under in many of his personal propositions will lead to nice profits.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com Approved sportsbooks are at www.linetrackers.com

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

Robert Frost wrote a classic poem about the “Road Not Taken” in which he chooses “the one less taken by.” This may be a great lesson in life, but not so much in sports handicapping.

Sharp players are like scientists. We are always cultivating and purifying our theories. Working on a tip from one of SportsLine360.com’s Board of Directors and pro bettor Jerry McCarn, a supposition has been tested and added to ratifying such process.

It applies in every sport. When one team has played a disproportionate percentage of their games on the road, they generally are undervalued and not surprisingly, when a squad has played a disproportionately home heavy schedule, they are typically overrated.

This hypothesis essentially further supports or in some cases, counters the home/road dichotomy or “splits” used by many bettors, present company included. It also fills in a missing piece in even some of the more accurate strength of schedule ratings, in that it greatly helps isolate important angles in that line of thinking.

A meeting of teams that have each fitting into the extremes of such category is not all that uncommon. Unbalanced schedules are par for the course over a season. When one team has played approximately 60 percent of the games at home, the other the same ratio on the road, we do at least put a red checkmark in the column of the team that has done the more traveling.

The reason for this is simple. As we have said, the most overused statistic in sports gambling is the respective teams straight up won-loss records. Oddsmakers know teams with superior straight up records always get the public betting affection.

Not only does the sharp player know better, but the sharpest of them all can spot a disingenuous winning percentage. A simple review of a team’s schedule to date is a supreme starting point. We will add a follow-up to Mr. Frost’s writing that taking the road less traveled does have its remuneration, but only if paved the way by excursions on the road most traveled.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com

This is Part-2 where the Center of the Handicapping Universe Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com breaks down the statistical comparisons of the bowl games. This report entails games of December 26-28.

Middle Tennessee State-Central Michigan

·        Central Michigan gets 84 more total yards per game on offense, though MTSU has a small 10.9 yards per game edge offensively

·        CMU leads offensively in rushing yards per attempt by .4, passing yards per attempt by 1.5 and completion percentage by 7.0

·        Middle Tennessee allows 16.7 less rushing yards per game but Central Michigan has a slight edge in passing defense at 8.5

·        CMU allows 1.5 less passing yards per attempt and 3.3 less passing yards per reception

Florida State-UCLA

·        The teams are nearly dead even offensively with FSU getting 29.2 more passing yards per game and UCLA 28.6 rushing yards per game

·        Defensively FSU allows 1.8 less first downs per game and 25.9 fewer yards per game

·        FSU has a small edge in most defensive categories

·        UCLA has a mammoth turnover ratio edge of 16

Oklahoma State-Alabama

·        Offensively OSU gets 3.4 more first downs per game

·        OSU averages 68.1 more total yards per game on offense, led by an 83.7 rushing yards per game edge

·        The Cowboys lead in passing yards per attempt by 1.6, passing yards per attempt by 1.1 and passing yards per reception by 2.5

·        Alabama completes 2.6 percent more of the pass attempts

·        Alabama allows 6.4 fewer first downs per game

·        The Crimson Tide has a defensive advantage of 83.8 total yards per game on 32.2 rushing yards per game and 51.7 passing

·        Alabama allows 5.2 less pass completion percentage

Kansas State-Rutgers

·        Rutgers gets 2.2 more first downs per game

·        The Scarlet Knights average 55.4 more rushing yards per game

·        Kansas State has the passing yards per game edge by 49.5

·        Rutgers has the upper hand in both rushing yards per attempt by .5 and passing yards per attempt by .6

·        Rutgers completes 3.5 percent more of the pass attempts

·        On defense, Rutgers allows 74.8 less total yards per game

·        Rutgers allows .9 less rushing yards per attempt

·        Kansas State gets the defensive advantage in passing yards per reception by 1.2

·        Rutgers allows a completion percentage of 6.3 less

·        The Scarlet Knights turnover ratio edge is 8

Texas A&M-California

·        Texas A&M gets 54.3 more rushing yards per game but Cal gets 63.8 more passing yards

·        Most other offensive categories are close, but the Aggies have a 3.0 completion percentage upper hand on offense

·        Defensively A&M allows 57.8 less total yards per game

·        The Aggies allow 1.0 less passing yards per attempt and 1.3 less passing yards per reception

Get the winners on each game from the top experts at OffshoreInsiders.com

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

We have written many bowl articles over the years that have led to big winnings at the expense of the books.  Here are some of the most important elements to remember.

The Dictionary as a Handicapping Tool: For whatever reason unbeknownst to sharp players, so many gamblers put too high a price on road record in picking games on a neutral field.  A neutral game is just that—no more a road game than a home game.

Ticket Sales: We do pay close attention to how much of their allotments a team sells of their tickets.  However, it’s not just for what many would consider the obvious reason—which team could have more of a “12^th man” cheering section.

One of the keys for a handicapper is to distinguish which teams are merely in a consolation game and which consider their postseason contest to be significant. Years of study has shown us it’s rare when a bowl is big for the fans but not for the players and visa versa. This is especially so when ticket sale discrepancies are not explained by each team’s proximity to where the game is being played. 

So in short, unless a bowl is essentially a geographic home game for one squad, if one team sold 20,000 tickets and the other 4,000, it’s a strong sign the game is much more important to the former school.

Long Layoffs: Another myth is the proverbial “go with the team that enters the preseason hotter”. The long layoff hurts teams that had momentum going and gives squads that finished on a skid time to make adjustments.

Leave Conference Bowl Records for the Media: Don’t go too overboard looking at early bowl conference performances when handicapping the later bowls. Quality of competition, low sample size and so many other factors go into which conference is 3-0 and which is 0-3 in bowl games.  Don’t overlook all other factors and assume how one or two teams from a conference does early is more accurate than full season strength of schedule ratings. Power ratings we use are adjusted as bowl season goes on.  However proper, not reactionary changes are made.

Overview: If anything, the bowls have a few more “don’ts” for the postseason as the bowls bring out some of gambling’s top myths.  But for the most part, everything that works in the regular season applies in the postseason with some adjustments made for the so-called intangible factors.

Power ratings we use are adjusted as bowl season goes on.  However such ratings use proper and not reactionary strength of schedule changes.

It’s underway: Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, which is offering a premium version of the advanced news and notes, computer trends, weather information and more for the entire bowl season.  Much of the information is compiled from hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. The entire bowl season version of the OffshoreInsiders.com clipboard is $69

Joe Duffy (www.OffshoreInsiders.com)

The pioneer in forensic handicapping, Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com, once described the success of his futuristic branch of handicapping being based on the premise, “The linesmakers know what the public is thinking and are two steps ahead of them. The sharp player knows what the linesmakers are thinking and is three steps ahead of them.”

That is a fair characterization of what Mike Godsey, chief football handicapper at Joe Duffy’s GodsTips has been doing for years. When we deliberate and finalize our football selections, the statistics for me that top the list are yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on each side of the ball relative to the cumulative averages of that team’s opponents to date.

Godsey, one of the first Internet handicappers, uses a few others, but net yardage margin measured against schedule strength tops the list. Actual straight up wins and losses have little bearing on handicapping, a fact that so few gamblers realize. At least 9-of-10 pointspread bettors have little conception of the difference between picking which team will win straight up and which teams will cover. In short, that’s what separates the men from the boys in sports betting.

Furthermore, to our original point, odds are based in great deal do to perception and such conception is effected most by straight up record. Godsey uses “net yardage records” and collates it against SU record to divulge deceptive straight up records and consequently as we like to say: overvalued and undervalued teams. He also applies the actual positive or negative margin of net yardage much in the same way other handicappers use point margin of victory or loss.

Wins and losses can often be affected by aberrational events like defensive or special teams touchdowns. Godsey’s research shows “Such fortune is tougher to duplicate game after game by the beneficiary or is much less likely to be repeated against the victim of such fate.”

Of course as all good gamblers do, Godsey considers many other factors. But while those who subsidize the books overassess wins, losses and points margin, Godsey is using much more circumstantiated data. With net yardage topping his list of statistical derivatives, it’s no wonder he’s topping the list of net winnings.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, which is offering a premium version of the advanced news and notes, computer trends, weather information and more for the entire bowl season. Much of the information is compiled from hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases. The entire bowl season version of the OffshoreInsiders.com clipboard is $69.

Streamlining, when employed properly, is of course effective in every line of work. In the 1970s and 80s, a lot of gamblers would focus on local teams and conferences where regional information was often more accurate and punctual than what Vegas could acquire.

The Internet and the Information Age, to say the least changed that. By no means did progress eliminate streamlining, it changed the focal point.

At one juncture, many moons ago, one of the most influential persons in moving a line was professional handicapper “Doc” in the Big 10. “His plays could move the line five, six points” says Steve Linden, one of the high rolling founders of MasterLockLine.com, the online betting syndicate.

Times changed and team or conference experts were no longer based on “location, location, location” but on the ability to adapt and expose which teams were the flavor of the moment to go with or against.

Focusing on a specific team now involves ascertaining undervalued and overvalued squads and riding them until oddsmakers caught up.

Forensic handicapper Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com says teams that inevitably become streaky spread wise are squads that have a high winning percentage but don’t blow teams out, or losing teams that don’t get blown out often.

Mike Godsey of GodsTips.com says he agrees, it is part of his “dichotomous ATS and SU” theory. “We discount 98 percent of trends, but this has proven to be the exception to the rule. Basically if a team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record or visa versa, you ride for that to continue as it is the sign of which teams are most under or overvalued.”

Linden says of the professional handicappers they monitor, unlike last century, there are fewer who simply excel by focusing on a specific team or conference, but instead they do notice, “The elite services do consistently go for or against the same teams for extended periods.”

With college basketball just around the corner, the number of teams undistinguished to the masses, but crystal clear to the sharpies increases multifold. Good times lie ahead for gamblers who streamline, but do so a bit differently now than they did in 1986.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, which features the top handicappers from the former Freescoreboard scorephone. His plays are part of Dream Team at GodsTips.com

As mentioned in other articles written about the To Bet a Man Square Massacre, I am a Ronald Reagan conservative. Nobody is more dismayed by the Prohibition of the 21^st Century than I am. I painfully acknowledge that the Reagan Revolution has been hijacked by the Big Brother Devolution, which has lead to the basic civil right to place a bet having been infringed upon.

That is unless you want to play bingo in a church hall or bet on the No. 4 horse in the second race. The insurgents in the conservative movement know who butters their bread. John Kyl and Bill Frist may be hypocritical but they are not stupid. Every phony has his price.

What attracted me to the Conservative Movement more than anything else was the foundation of personal responsibility and accountability. The Reagan Revolution saw this across the board whether it was holding convicted criminals accountable, allowing the successful to keep more of their income and by believing the individual and private sector always thrive more without government interference.

Deregulation was commonplace. Most importantly, my brand of conservatism believed in creating new streams of tax revenue. This was in lieu of raising taxes on the rich, defining the wealthy as anyone who makes one dollar more than I do.

In the Baptist Press, Bill Frist wrote a first person account why he knows how to spend your money more responsibly than you do.

The father of the Big Brother movement apparently wants to replace the first letter in his last name with “Ch” because he appoints himself the Savior of you and me. Conservatism’s bastard child aimlessly scribbled, “People who gamble online are almost twice as likely to become problem gamblers as those who gamble in other places. Problem gambling destroys lives and families.”

Frist has chosen not to revive Reaganism, but McCarthyism.

Apparently if you want to bet a four-team $20 parlay, you are destroying your family. Clearly your values are not as family friendly as that of Frist and Thomas Foley. Send perverted messages to minors on a computer and Big Brother wants to cover it up. Bet lunch money on a baseball game and Frist wants to lock you up.

I will be the first to admit, most Americans do not put the utmost priority on their right to gamble, though I’d venture to say the number of enraged is significantly higher than far right wing periphery realizes.

The Big Brother conservatives believe in personal responsibility alright. Your family values are their personal responsibility.

Every opinion poll known to mankind confirms American families believe Frist has failed miserably in leading his party in the Senate. Undeterred, he still believes government needs to be the caretaker of your family. You are too dim-witted to know online gambling is the greatest affront to the American family since that effeminate dinosaur Barney started emasculating our children thanks to tax supported PBS.

Legalizing and taxing online gambling is the perfect marriage for true conservatives. However the beliefs in personal responsibility and new forms of tax revenue have been sabotaged.

The To Bet a Man Square Massacre may not be the reason that Frist and his cronies have approval ratings that hover around the Duke football team’s winning percentage. But his attack on your rights under the subterfuge of family values is at the very least symbolic of the crisis he created. Genuine conservatives, those who should be his core supporters, believe that Frist and Kyl are, how can I say this nicely—self righteous idiots whose subversive skullduggery has incapacitated the movement they pretend to represent.

Ronald Reagan must be turning over in his grave. I’d bet on it, but Jesus Frist won’t let me.

Joe Duffy, a former Young Republican Executive Board member is now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, which conservatively speaking is the premier source for sports gambling information.

Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)

Many years ago I was a two-time executive board member of the North Fulton (GA) Young Republicans. I’m no longer young. As I got older, I preferred to describe my political beliefs aligned more with conservative ideology than any political party.

As I transitioned into a middle aged Republican, my eyes were opened to the fact that both parties are guilty of putting partisan needs ahead of the country’s well being.

I preferred to align myself with ideals. When my choice lost, rather than proving I was smarter than those who voted for the winning candidate, I judged the elected official on performance and not which letter is in parenthesis after his or her name. Conversely, when my chad hung for the right person, blind defense of such elected official could not enter the equation.

So there you have my leanings on the table, but I honestly believe I’ve always had a political slant, yet never a bias.

I generally have been pretty accurate predicting the outcome of elections, my rooting interests never shading me.

Most observers were shocked at the last major election. The Republican Party became the first since Franklin Roosevelt to win both the White House and gain seats in both houses while already holding a majority.

Mind you, I can’t say I have the political handicapping skills to match my sports prognostication abilities, but I foresaw the Democrats losing the last elections much more so than the Republicans “winning”.

Their Presidential frontrunner Howard Dean and lead attack dog Tom Daschle rallied the far left but alienated the center—the undecided—with melodramatic, Chicken Little, sky-is-falling rhetoric.

Dean plummeted quickly in his party’s own primaries and Daschle, once unbeatable is now a private citizen thanks to a contingency that tired of their refusal to keep the debate honest. George Soros, Hollywood and Air America cheered the venom and histrionics, while the undecided gave more power to an unpopular majority party.

Republicans clearly, two years later, are hell bent on returning the favor. The right wing counterparts to MoveOn.org, Al Franken and the incorrigibles have commandeered the party. Republican insurgents such as Jerry Falwell, Anne Coulter, and Michael Savage may feel invigorated by their party’s Gambling Prohibition. But every survey I have ever seen says that rank and file Americans believe in the right to bet five bucks on how many points will be scored on the Monday Night Football game.

This political handicapper believes—and with a conservative slant at that—the Republican Party’s insistence on kowtowing the right-wing fringe is a gamble that will fail miserably.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com your source for free sports picks from the nation’s top handicappers as well as exclusive sports betting information.