A preeminent offshore oddsmaker stated that the schism between the sharp player and square bettor has never been larger. “Professional bettors are winning at a higher rate than ever before, but luckily (for sportsbooks) there are more losing bettors,” this offshore betting pioneer asserted.

This gap is widest in NFL betting. The oddsmakers and sharp players continue to advance, but the square gets suckered more than anytime in history. The reasons are quite elementary.

Extensive prognostication ammo is readily available. Usage of the thoroughgoing volume though is so time-consuming its complete deployment is confined to the oddsmaker, learned full-time handicappers and the professional gambler.

About 20 years ago, the boiler room sales pitches from the toll-free blowhard touts included cookie cutter boasts about having scouts “all over the country” work for them and crowing about “inside information”.

Now, with small monetary investments and enormous time expenditure, bettors can have “scouts” working for them, especially in NFL predictions. Yes, this means employing intuitiveness from former NFL players who scrutinize game film for hours.  Who knew how prophetic the snake oil touts really were when they alleged scouts labored for them?

As much flack as I often take for giving props to the four-letter evil empire, ESPN Insider continues to be one of our beloved sources for betting intel.

Via their Scouts Inc, which is led by Jeremy Green the son of former NFL and college coach Dennis Green, sports investors get first-rate scouting reports from film room junkies.

Former NFL players Ron Jaworski and Merrill Hoge also give valuable game film insight. Jaworski has been known to camp at NFL Films and one can bet (so to speak) that he does have a tremendous point of observation

Speaking of NFL Films, their Senior Producer Greg Cosell has his “Film Room Blog” on FantasyGuru.com, one of the best sites for fantasy football with overlapping handicapping vantage points. In includes Cosell’s notes from “watching coach’s tapes”. Considering his status and employer, he’s not blowing smoke. His reports are comprehensive, profound, and invaluable for my NFL handicapping.

Sports Xchange, touted by Howie Long and John Madden, is consumed by sundry media outlets and by yours truly in the NFL and MLB.

How about college sports? Scout.com is the centralized portal for Internet and hard copy team specific sites, that in their words, “publish inside and exclusive content” on many of the teams. The caliber of intuition varies greatly from team to team, but sifting through the filler content often uncovers handicapping wisdom.

The next time you hear a handicapper claiming to have scouts with inside information, he may actually be telling the truth. There is one certainty, the oddsmakers have the skinny and the gambler is in serious hardship without it.

The more advantages the bettors’ opponent has the less leverage for the gambler. Make no mistake, the oddsmaker is the enemy. The cost of not having a scout’s angle has never been greater.

The only way to counteract the munitions that the linesmaker has is to use that same artillery against him. Luckily the bookmaker has to post odds long before the investor needs to finalize his picks, allowing the gamester to empower superior real-time information.

The Information Age continues to be great news for both the oddsmakers and professional speculator, while the hunch bettor underwrites at an accelerated rate. To that we are forever grateful.

The author, Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com where you can opt to be part of the elite club of winning bettors, or chose to finance those who are. 

It was somewhere around 25 years ago - an eon in the prospering life of modern sports betting - that Nevada’s licensed bookmakers first began employing money lines. The action was one of necessity as bet takers, in an effort to limit their susceptibility at being caught between two numbers (a situation called being middled or sided) sought a profitable (for them) but reasonably attractive (for bettors) alternative to moving pointspreads.

With money lines, (which are the wagering standard for baseball), players don’t lay or take points; they lay or take a price. For example, if the Colts are a 3-point favorite over the Broncos, on the money line, Indianapolis might be -160 (bet $160 to win $100) while Denver is +140 (bet $100 to win $140). No pointspread is involved.

”The time when a money line is really used in force is on a game such as the Super Bowl where a side or a middle literally could cost you millions of dollars,” explained a noted Las Vegas bookmaker with vast knowledge of the intricacies of money line management who asked not to be identified. “At a really large sportsbook, getting sided on the Super Bowl could cost the house well over $1 million.

”The time that a money line is really valuable is when the line is -3. Rather than moving the spread to -2 ½ or -3 ½, I like using a money line, especially if my jeopardy is going to be around seven figures.”

Of course, a bookmaker’s jeopardy or risk is a relative factor.

”Again, it’s up to the guy running the joint,” pointed out the bet taker. “Obviously, if you’re on -3 and you’re $2 million high, if you go to -3 ½ you know you’re going to get money back. How much do you want to risk? It all comes down to how much belly you have.”

Bookmakers also use money lines when they hang halftime lines, a game within a game where pointspreads based solely and independently on single halftime scores are offered.

”Halves are pretty treacherous,” admitted the bookmaker. “Using a money line is a tactical move because I think that’s the only way you can really book halftimes. If it’s pick with the money line and the game comes tied, all you do is give the money back. But it’s dangerous to go from pick to 1, pick to a ½ or pick to 1 on the other side because, quite obviously, if the game winds up 7-7 at the half, you’re going to lose a lot of money.

”That’s a strategic move because there are a lot smarter people betting the halftime than in a normal situation. When you take decent sized bets - say $10,000 to a number - using the pick money line pointspread for a halftime, I believe, is the best theory.”

Sports betting action usually dictates change but pointspreads don’t always move in tandem with money line shifts, and vice versa.

”It all depends,” said another bookmaker who also felt a bit squeamish discussing internal oddsmaking deliberations and demanded anonymity. “If wiseguys (informed bettors) are laying a side up, yeah, most of the time I will move the pointspread. But if it’s square (unsophisticated) money that moving the number, I’ll just leave it there because I don’t want to kill all the action. Sometimes, if you leave it there, they’ll bet that up, too. But if games are moving, especially in college, a point, a point and a half, two points a crack in an afternoon, you’ve got to move the money line. With the NFL, you can stay a little longer and take a hit.”

If there’s a player edge with money lines it’s probably in taking the odds with small underdogs. Since NFL games are decided by 1 or 2 points only about a combined seven percent of the time, some gamblers feel if you like the underdog you might as well forget the points and take a plus on the money line.

In the end, money lines are just another option sports betting option.

MONEY LINE VERSUS POINTSPREAD

This article was written by Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com.

Football betting season begins shortly with the first preseason game, the Colts and Redskins. That means the Johnny Demarco come lately handicappers pop out of the woodwork.

We’ve seen services that go by the names of Harry Wins, Days Best Bet, Dinero Gaming, Smart Betters (sic), SportsDr. (I think there have been dozens), Wager4Profit, Bankroll Picks, Locksville, A. J. Brady, Les Barry, Brian King, the Best Bet on Sports, Bookie Basher Sports, Sports America Sports Service, Gamble2Retire and more.

It’s like the Barry Manilow song, “The people, they all look the same. Only the names have been changed,” and the lyrics so appropriately add, “just the names.” It’s a true blue spectacle for sure.

Even the major sites are adding handicappers named David Chan, Mike Scalleat and Alex Smart.

Soon we will find out who the doppelgangers of Jonathan Stone, Bobby Ventura and the like will be.

Literally one out of about 400 will prove to be a legitimate world class sports betting service. Of course, the MasterLockLine.com which traces their roots back to the scorephone Super Lock days will have their plays.

You can purchase plays of one of the above services before they change their name or go with a handicapping service that has been around since the 1980s such as Joe Duffy of GodsTips. You remember him as JD of the ACC on the Amazing Cadillac Club when scorephones were king.

For endless and consistent winners this football season, the one and only choice remains OffshoreInsiders.com

The World Series of Poker begins today and the betting odds give investors sundry opportunities. Most of the key action for poker handicappers will commence in mid-to-late June.

One can ante on whether or not Phil Helmuth gets his 12^th bracelet at the WSOP. Sports bettors can also wager whether or not Doyle Brunson or Johnny Chan will be awarded their 11^th bracelet. But NewBodog allows the interesting proposition bet of one or the other, neither, or both getting the bracelet.

Event 45 is the $50,000 buy in HORSE event. Which player will last the longest? Daniel Negreanu, Barry Greenstein, and Phil Ivey are the co-favorites at 9/2. The next group to have the wining poker strategy at 6/1 is Doyle Brunson, Patrik Antonius, Allen Cunningham, and Freddy Deeb. Coming up the rear, Eli Elerza, David Williams, and Chris Ferguson are all at 15/2.

Which celebrity poker player will win the most money in Event 54? James Woods, Jennifer Tilly, Yevgeny Kafelnikov, and Shannon Elizabeth are the favorites at 5/1. Long forgotten Boris Becker, Don Cheadle, Ben Affleck, and Norm McDonald are 9/1.

Odds are also posted on Tobey McGuire, Ray Romano, Jason Alexander, Montel Williams, Brad Garrett, Sully Erna, Jose Conseco, Lennox Lewis, Hank Azaria and Penn Gillette.

Betting odds on the Sex in the City movie, propositions on the National Spelling Bee and the possibility of an NFL lockout are among the possibilities at various sportsbooks.

Here is a sample of the OffshoreInsiders.com crib sheet: trends and tendencies we look for in sports betting, then proactively exploit.

Get Healthy Charlotte Please

Anyone who has been a client of ours for years knows how much we exploit the dichotomous ATS and straight up teams. For those on the outside looking in, the teams that are most profitable for sharp players are top shelf teams that often win without covering or bottom dwellers that lose straight up but are able to cover the spread.

We have isolated the Bobcats as a strong candidate to keep on our radar screen. It has been a baptism by fire for first-year head coach Sam Vincent. He has learned from his early missteps, but continues to struggle with a shorthanded team.

“Leading scorer Gerald Wallace played in only one of the final six games entering the All-Star break, plus Raymond Felton, Matt Carroll and Derek Anderson all have bruised knees,” points out Curt Thomas, full-time NBA handicapper for GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com.

Thanks to their home arena hosting three college basketball tournaments, Charlotte plays 15 of 21 games on the road in an upcoming stretch. A horrid 4-18 straight up on the highway before the break, safe to say they will be getting tons of points. Thus, they just need to be more competitive to cover. They don’t need to win outright.

With a coach who has progressed with on the job training, a team that should, repeat should be healthier, they will be a more competitive team—the type of team that covers, but remains under the radar because they keep losing straight up.

Mavericks Go-Against in Three Games in Four Night Situations

The Mavericks blockbuster trade to get Jason Kidd will be a classic “step back to take two steps forward” move for the handicappers. The Mavs bench was already thin and they diluted it further to get the soon-to-be 35 year old legs of Kidd.

Losing DeSagana Diop makes them a smaller team in a conference that has most of the league’s top big men. The move should help come playoff time, but we look to fade them against teams with quality big men and in unrested situations.

However, because of the trade, the public will perceive them as better and the oddsmakers must oblige.

Hawks and Over

Atlanta is one of the most underachieving teams in the league. They have two problems: coaching and point guard. Scratch the latter. Atlanta got Mike Bibby in a trade with the Kings. With Joe Johnson, the Hawks have a legitimate 1-2 punch.

The Hawks like to run and they got a necessary cog. We look for the Hawks to sneak up on the oddsmakers and also have a lot more high scoring games.

The author, Joe Duffy is part of Dream Team at GodsTips, the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com. Check out all the free and premium information for sports betting at OffshoreInsiders.com

Each and every season all sports should be a learning experience in sports betting. We always reflect and critique ourselves, evaluate what changes have been made by the oddsmakers and how the alterations in the sports landscape affect handicapping.

High on the list of strategy refinements this football season was the realization that I found a football handicapping Holy Grail about a quarter of a century ago yet let it slip through my fingertips.

In the pre-Internet days, one of my top sources for data was the Sports and Gaming Newswire, one of Jim Feist’s companies. I believe that was the first time I encountered the yards per point statistic.

On offense it is calculated by yards gained divided by points scored. On defense, it’s yards allowed divided by points given up. The theory is it measures efficiency on both sides of the ball.

A low number on offense is good, meaning a team does not waste yardage or “leave points on the field” so to speak.

A high number on defense is good, meaning a lot of successful defensive stands. However, conventional thinking (handicapping’s ultimate oxymoron) would say bet on the efficient teams and against the inefficient.

The stat proved not only worthless, but if anything one would be better off fading the stat. Little did I know how true the latter was and how consistent it has been with so many other improvements and refinements I’ve made in my handicapping over the decades.

We’ve written many articles on how we measure the accuracy and validity of a team’s performance. We don’t have the time and space to go over every detail but in short, we use net yardage record (a team that gets more yards “wins”) where others use straight up won-loss record. We use net yards per game comparisons where the squares employ points per game.

Others “rank” teams by total yards per game in passing, rushing and overall both offensively and defensively. In lieu of that, we use the more reliable yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per play relative to the cumulative average of their opponents to date.

For elaboration, visit the archived sports betting strategy articles at OffshoreInsiders.com, but our supposition is that these stats demonstrate which teams outplay or underplay their stats and hence, which teams have the biggest upside and which have the biggest downside. Insert the terms overvalued and undervalued.

Remember, a team’s Vegas/offshore value is most affected by their performance. But the teams that have the best, yes we said best yards per point stats are teams that are going to be overvalued and teams with the worst undervalued.

Why? The most efficient teams can only improve by maintaining the high bar they have set for themselves while increasing actual production.

The squads that, for example, waste offensive yardage by not converting them into points (bad yards per point rating) have demonstrated they are capable of more than their bottom line production has shown.

There is little debate that poor efficiency is more correctable than poor production. Remember, it’s not like one can retroactively bet stats. The more efficient teams will have the best spread records to date for the most part. As gamblers, we want to know beforehand which teams will have a reversal of fortune—literally.

This past season, we beta tested (tracked but did not bet) the theory. Voila. Yes, the teams that were wasting yards did have the biggest upside and the least wasteful teams did have the bigger downside. Essentially, it proved to be a great a great way to “buy low and sell high” and apply it to handicapping.

Best of all, the more the previously referenced stats: net yardage, yards per rush/pass/play and yards per point theories corroborated each other, not surprisingly, the stronger the play. If the data contradicted, of course it meant there was no statistical angle to exploit.

The beta testing is done. We are greatly looking forward to next football season.

No need to wait until next football season to bet on sports. The author, Joe Duffy makes his picks on GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com. With March Madness betting around the corner, note that Duffy’s prowess and work ethic has earned him the monikers of Mr. March and the Lord of the Dance.

This is Part-5 where the Center of the Handicapping Universe Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com breaks down the statistical comparisons of the bowl games. This report entails games of Jan. 1.

Wisconsin-Tennessee

The offensive stats are close. Tennessee gets 2.0 more first downs per game on 25.1 more total yards. However, Wisconsin has the most modest of edges, getting .1 more yards per play. Yet the Vols get 62.6 more passing yards per game. Talk about conflicting stats, the Badgers get 1.1 more passing yards per attempt and 2.7 more passing yards per reception.

The numbers give Wisconsin the check marks on defense. They allow 5.3 fewer first downs per game on 83.9 less yards. The Volunteers permit .2 fewer rushing yards per attempt. Every other comparison gives a small edge to the Badgers. But Tennessee has a turnover ratio of nine better than Wisky.

Arkansas-Missouri

While Missouri gets 6.1 more first downs per game on 35.4 more yards, Arkansas has the upper hand in the most important category (according to sports betting expert Joe Duffy), getting .3 more yards per play. But it’s a battle of differing styles as much as any bowl game. Arkansas picks up 131.7 more rushing yards per game; Mizzou 167.1 more passing yards per game. The Razorbacks get a significantly more 1.8 more rushing yards per attempt but Missouri .8 more passing yards per attempt. The Razorbacks have a more efficient passing game, accumulating .9 more passing yards per reception, yet the Tigers complete 11.9 more percent of their pass attempts.

It’s see-saw on defense as well. Missouri allows 29.1 less rushing yards per game, but Arkanas 50.3 fewer passing yards per game. The two most significant differences on defense are the Tigers permitting 1.8 less passing yards per reception, but the Razorbacks with a humungous passing percentage against superiority of 16.6.

Michigan-Florida

Florida has the huge upper hand on offense getting 4.7 more first downs per game, 110.8 yards per game, 1.8 more yards per play including 2.8 more passing yards per attempt. The Gators also complete 13.1 more percent of their passes.

On defense, it’s the Wolverines who are superior. They allow 4.7 less first downs per game on .5 fewer yards per play. However, Florida allows 27.4 fewer rushing yards per game on .6 less rushing yards per attempt. Michigan’s advantage is 98.2 fewer passing yards per game on 1.2 less passing yards per attempt and 1.6 less passing yards per reception. Michigan has a turnover ratio upper hand of seven.

Texas Tech-Virginia

High powered Tech gets 6.1 more first downs per game, 210.8 total yards per game on 2.4 more yards per play. However, the Cavs have the advantage in rushing yards per game by 61.8. The Red Raiders accumulate 2.1 more passing yards per attempt. They also have a commanding superiority in completion percentage by 13.8.

It’s pretty close on defense. The Cavs allow 62.7 less rushing yards per game, and 1.0 less rushing yards per attempt. But the Red Raiders permit 14.2 fewer passing yards per game. They have minimal edges as well in passing yards per attempt, passing yards per reception and passing percentage against. Virginia has the upper hand in turnover ratio by nine.

Illinois-USC

Contrary to what many may believe, Illinois actually averages a slight 4.9 more total yards per game on offense led by a superiority of 80.3 yards rushing. They also get 1.0 more rushing yards per attempt and 1.0 more passing yards per reception. The Trojans though complete 5.8 more percent of their passes.

USC allows 3.3 fewer first downs per game on 96.6 fewer total yards per game and 1.1 less yards per play. It’s a clean sweep of superiority on defense for Southern Cal giving up 1.3 less passing yards per attempt, 1.4 less passing yards per reception, and a completion percentage against of 4.8 less.

Hawaii-Georgia

Hawaii gets 7.3 more first downs per game on 143.6 more yards offensively. However, the Bulldogs run the ball much better getting 97.6 more yards per game on .8 more rushing yards per attempt. The Rainbow Warriors have a completion percentage of 16.8 better than the Dawgs.

The defensive comparison shows the teams closer than many may think. UGA allows 24.7 fewer yards per game, but Hawaii actually concedes .2 fewer yards per play. Hawaii allows .6 fewer passing yards per attempt on .7 less passing yards per reception. Turnover ratio comparison goes to the Bulldogs by five.

OffshoreInsiders.com is your one-stop shop for bowl betting. We have the latest live odds, plus CFB First Half Lines, CFB Halftime Lines, CFB Matchups from SportsDataBases or as an alternative CFB Matchups from StatFox, CFB Trend Sheet with ATS info, CFB Game Reports, CFB Game Previews from an online betting perspective.

The NCAA has long taken a harsh anti-gambling stance. They have a well-orchestrated “Don’t Bet on It” campaign including a website (DontBetOnIt.org).

Yet, the phony organization has a $100 million gamble and has fixed the outcome to ensure they will not lose the money they anted. The NCAA, in conjunction with their mega-million dollar betting syndicate of six BCS conferences, college presidents and the television networks, created the BCS 11 years ago. Topping the list of goals of the sweepstakes is to come up with a true national championship game.

The quandary is, ala ice skating, that the participants are determined by a very subjective equation that consists of judges in two polls and the computer average of six ranking systems. The compilation results in a point system that ranks each team, with the top two meeting to determine a champion.

However, the many imperfections of the method allows for the possibility that the NCAA could lose their bet. The winner of that alleged championship game may not wind up with the most BCS points when the point system was applied after the bowl games.

The new calculations could produce a top ranked team that did not even participate in the BCS Championship game. We saw an example of that when LSU earned a spot in this year’s game, leapfrogging a Virginia Tech team that won and a Georgia squad that did not play because they already finished their season.

There are endless scenarios in which the victor of Ohio State-LSU could also be leapfrogged. For example, LSU supporters point out that both of the Tigers losses were in overtime, hence their setbacks should be weighted less.

Okay, so what if the BCS Championship game also goes into overtime, should that victory be weighted less, allowing impressive bowl wins by Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Georgia, USC or Kansas to bypass them?

What if Hawaii stuns Georgia in impressive fashion? All of a sudden that sheds new light on their record and validates them as the only undefeated team in the country.

Well aware of the nightmare scenario, the NCAA has fixed the outcome. Coaches have as much right to vote their conscience as constituents do in Cuban elections. Regardless of who a coach believes should be No. 1 following the postseason results, they are mandated to declare the winner of the BCS’ gamble as champion. Is this not blatant shaving of the BCS’s own point system?

In fact, the Bowl Championship Series Rankings are not even recalculated following the bowls. A true final poll could reveal the BCS lost their wager. No problem, the NCAA comes up with a point system then manipulates the ultimate outcome to guarantee there will be no undesired results. If a player does that, it’s called point shaving. When the NCAA does the same thing, they call it the Bowl Championship Series.

College athletes, visit the DontBetOnIt.org site. Remember, when the NCAA informs you about all the evils of gambling and point shaving, do as they say, not as they do.

The author, Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com. Make sure you are happy with the outcome of the college football bowls by getting his GodsTips winning selections at OffshoreInsiders.com

Recently sports have seen minor controversies to major scandals that all have direct or indirect handicapping lessons. In short, they can be summed up in what we preach time and time again. The key to successful sports betting is getting an edge as often as possible.

This is exactly why coaches are notoriously secretive about the injury status of key players and also why we sports bettors exercise every source to get the accurate lowdown.

Coaches believe the more he knows about the injury status of his and his opponent’s key players, the more of an edge his team will get. It’s the same way with gamblers against their sportsbook opponent.

It’s precisely the reason the now infamous scandals of disgraced NBA referee Tim Donaghy and likely soon-to-be former Texas A&M football coach Dennis Franchione are so significant. Investing is sports scores is much like Wall Street betting. “Inside information” that coaches and refs have access to is the sports broker’s version of insider trading.

So is the lesson for the sports gambler that if we don’t get the state’s evidence directly from a coach or referee that we are out of luck? The answer is absolutely not. “Inside” information is far from the only way to get the upper hand on betting the odds.

A lot of valuable insight is out there. Just because information is public does not mean it’s widely circulated.

So often the keenest intelligence comes to light after the odds have been posted, often somewhat limiting how sportsbooks can act in response. We’ve long touted Google News as our favorite aggregator of sports betting information such as injuries, expert analysis on how teams match up, motivation recognition and other very useful bullet points.

However, Topix and ESPN have also teamed up to try to compete with Google News. Replacing their “Sitelines” section, ESPN has partnered with Topix to create “ESPN local”. This new feature aggregates articles of interest to the sports fan and gambler. That being said, Google News still reigns supreme, but the ESPN/Topix synergy has potential for the handicapper.

We move on to a minor controversy, but certainly an example of a coach pulling out all the stops to get the leg up on the competition or more accurately to counter the eminence of their foe.

Georgia finally ended Florida’s series domination in college football. In said game, the Bulldogs had a choreographed excessive celebration penalty after their first touchdown. Head coach Mark Richt admitted he told the team, “I expect you guys to celebrate to the point where the official will throw a flag for excessive celebration.”

Richt said his instructions were intended to fire up his team because he felt they needed to play with more passion. He did not specifically verify, but we strongly suspect that the fact that Florida had won 15 of the previous 17 meetings was motivational factor No. 1.

The handicapping ramifications are to never underestimate the importance of emotion and the psychology of sports. Of course most players on both Florida and Georgia were being potty trained when the domination started. Each team has gone through several coaching changes during the era. Despite all that, clearly Richt knew that a well publicized one-sided rivalry leads to swagger from one team and a “culture of losing” from the other.

Sports bettors should not completely disregard historical data even if the period precedes every player and coach who will affect that outcome of the game being handicapped. I honestly believe if Georgia had the 15-2 series edge, Richt would never have felt the need to manufacture boastfulness and confidence.

Then there was the short-lived, though periodic speculation about the Indianapolis Colts piping in crowd noise during home games. For our purposes, the veracity of these accusations is not as relevant as the fact that there is a reason why opponents care if the Colts are bending rules.

Again, crowd noise can give a home team—we will say it again—“the edge”. Few coaches or players will dispute the affect of the “12^th man” in football or the “6^th man” in basketball.

This is why we love it when we read that a team has for example “only the third sellout in two years” or that the small town mayor held a noon pep rally the day of a big game.

Not that a game or pointspread is necessarily going to be affected by a pep rally, but such seemingly innocuous events are symptoms of how significant a specific game is and how passionate the hometown crowd is going to be.

In college, we always keep an eye out for when the non-elite college basketball teams are playing home games while the student body is on winter break. The level of home court and home field advantage is fluid and will vary game-to-game, especially with lower profile schools where sellouts are far from a given.

What the average gambler takes for granted, the sharp player yearns for. No edge is too banal for smart money players. Best of all, one need not always have access to a private booster newsletter or collude with a rogue official. So often the most indispensable information to the gambler can be in the fourth paragraph of a squad’s hometown newspaper or within the official team press release.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers and free sports betting information.

Joe Duffy (OffshoreInsiders.com)

Often spending 15 hours per day in front of this computer, I do listen to a lot of sports radio stations around the country via the magic of streaming audio. Every Monday, Friday and Saturday, I am entertained by so-called handicappers, “Vegas legends” and other mercenaries. The various pitchmen purchase infomercial segments peddling their weekly “opportunity of a lifetime”.

Bobby Ventura is the most pathetic. I heard a commercial from a guy in radio voice saying he was Bobby Ventura and they were 6-1 on Monday Night Football. Then another guy in a boiler room Long Island accent comes on, says he’s Bobby Ventura and it’s only his second Monday Night Football release of the year.

A handful of the touts do supply worthwhile information, but most of the shows, to quote politico William Gibbs, consists of an “an army of pompous phrases moving across the landscape in search of an idea.” It’s a weekly echo chamber of how many ways the huckster tries to sway listeners into believers. “You have to know which teams are coming to play and which are not” generally followed by a strange segue comparing football teams to horses, race cars or other generic talking points.

However, the one recurring specific assertion makes me cringe because the boiler room tout is exploiting a myth with the intent of separating fools from their money.

It’s the fairy-tale where the canned script claims that with about 60 or so college and pro football games they find “one game” in which “information so strong” comes in.” Of course “when an opportunity this strong (“strong” seems to be a favorite word of the scamdicappers) lands on your lap, you have to simply unload on this game.” As luck would have it, that week’s treasure chest just so happens to fall on the same day the paid announcement is scheduled to broadcast.

The “unload on this one game” fool’s gold could not be further detached from reality. Like we said in reference to the Tim Donaghy scandal, sharp players look to get information (not necessarily the vague claims of “inside” information) that will give them an edge over a span of hundreds of bets.

This is the No. 1 reason the NCAA should be concerned about Texas A&M coach Dennis Francione’s secret newsletter. “Getting accurate injury information before the oddsmakers acquire it would increase any decent sports bettor’s winning percentage by 6-8 percentage points” says Mike Godsey, Senior Handicapper of GodsTips.com. He admits that estimate errs on the conservative side.

Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com agrees if “every coach published a secret newsletter, professional gamblers would annihilate the sportsbooks.”

But contrary to what the boiler room touts want you to believe, Vincent and Godsey are not referring to “betting the mortgage” on any single game or a small number of games, but hitting 60-plus percent of hundreds of bets per year.

Between having been the GM of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, I’ve gotten dozens of inquiries from handicappers who wanted to be part of said networks. I always demand at least a week’s worth of writing samples before they are even given consideration.

Frankly this caveat weeds out about 95 percent of applicants. If the aspiring candidate does not supply analysis that convinces me that the handicapper has insight that few bettors possess, he has zero chance of ever being on a site in which I am the decider.

My credo is that all established professional handicappers are proud to show off the amount of research that goes into a bet. If a handicapper gives you no rationale, rest assured you just paid for a coin flip.

Many claim to have “information” such as the previously referenced newest wave of radio touts. Those who actually can supply the privy and precise scoop will document their claims with specifics of what their knowledge actually is. Otherwise it’s all propaganda.

Again, the golden rule is no matter how invaluable the lowdown proves to be, any upper hand will pay off long-term. This is no “bail out game”. Excluding pushes, even the preeminent gamblers will lose four out of every 10 bets.

Perhaps the biggest difference between the professional gambler and the degenerate is that the elite bettors measure success by the month, year and decade. Losing 40 percent of their bets has to be the cost of doing business. The deadbeat meanwhile falls prey to any clown with a sales pitch and an 800 number.

Luckily for radio sales people and bookmakers, so many rainbow chasers continue to choose the latter.

Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and lead handicapper of GodsTips on said site. His picks are always backed by specific rationale as to why you too should bet his plays.

It’s been awhile since we authored a volume in this series. However more anticipated than a Harry Potter novel, the Tid-Bets return to take a look at various sports handicapping and betting issues.

How Do Handicappers Work Overtime?

CBS announcer Gary Danielson accurately observed how college football overtimes can greatly distort statistics. From a handicapping standpoint, this is certainly true for those who use deceptive rankings or points per game statistics. Luckily sharp bettors do not or they are weighted very lightly.

The main statistics that we use: yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense compared to the cumulative average of their opponents are not debased by overtime play. The same is true for ace football handicapper Mike Godsey of GodsTips.com who utilizes net yard advantage/disadvantage cumulative statistics.

We’ve explained in previous articles why straight up wins and losses, point margin, and offensive and defensive rankings are the most popular choices of square players planning their own sportsbook death sentence.

“If a team wins by eight points in four overtimes, it looks the same as an eight-point win in regulation,” says Mike Godsey, referring to those who use the above fatal stats.

“But if the losing team is stopped on the three-yard line trying to tie the game, it is very much accounted for in our statistics,” brags Godsey.

Godsey adds that while as a fan he despises the fact that teams start 25 yards from pay dirt; it is built-in insurance that the more reliable numbers don’t get too distorted in overtime.

Will the Pitching and Defense Cliché Ever Die?

In 2007, no surprise, seven of the top eight offenses based on a team’s on base percentage made the playoffs. Two of the three teams that finished with 70 wins or less, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, ranked in the top five in defense, ahead of six of the eight playoff teams. And six of the top 10 pitching teams missed the playoffs.

This is on the heels of St. Louis winning the World Series with Chris Carpenter and a cast of rejects on their pitching staff. Their closer was a converted rookie starting pitcher. The year before the White Sox had a good starting pitching staff and an abysmal bullpen. In recent years, Arizona won with Johnson and Schilling and the rest of the staff worth killing.

The Toronto Blue Jays this most recent campaign had the best pitching staff in MLB with A.J. Burnett, Roy Halladay, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch. All they did was finish 13 games out of first place.

This year the Colorado Rockies enter the World Series having won an historic 21-of-22 games. The ace of their staff is Jeff Francis, a very solid pitcher indeed. Problem is, he’d be the No. 3 starter on the Atlanta Braves, a team that the media said failed to make the playoffs because of lack of pitching. But not to worry, rounding out the Rockies pitching staff is Ubadlo Jimenez and Franklin Morales. Combined, they have seven career wins under their belt. Yes, combined they have seven more wins at the Major League level than I do.

Pitching and defense wins in the media, but the teams with the best clutch hitting are the squads that professional gamblers laugh with all the way to the bank.

ESPN Fantasy Football Simulations a Tool for Proposition Bettors

Over the last several years, online gamblers have been able to bet on the production of individual players in their respective sports. An elite gambler in fantasy football betting is Mike Snow of BettorsAdvice.com.

He says there is no better starting point than the ESPN fantasy football projections. “We of course make adjustments for injuries, but contrasting the player proposition odds to the ESPN simulations has proven to be great foundation in fantasy NFL betting.”

Lower betting limits make it more challenging for sharp players to clean house on the sportsbooks, but Snow says some of the highest return on investments have been in betting NFL player propositions.

Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at www.GodsTips.com He is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the premier hub of world-class handicappers.

The Marshall Thundering Herd and the Memphis Tigers will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Liberty Bowl.

The top Online Sportsbook has the Tigers listed as 3-point favorites versus the Thundering Herd, while the game’s total is sitting at 60.

The Thunderding Herd were crushed 40-14 last week by the Cincinnati Bearcats, as 24.5-point underdogs. The 54 points were a PUSH against the posted total of 54.

Bernard Morris completed 20-of-30 pass attempts for 255 yards with two touchdowns in a losing effort.

The Tigers got up early, and failed ot hold on in a 35-31 loss last time out. The Tigers failed to cover the 6-point spread at home, while the 66 runs made it OVER the posted total of 62.

Remember, a huge marketing conglomerate is spending tens of thousands of dollars every week advertising their brands such as Jonathan Stone of Stone Cold Locks, Bobby Ventura, Game Brokers, Tony Smith and others. They “borrow” the Level 5 plays from Stevie Vincent of OffshoreInsiders.com and re-sell them for 10-20 or more times what OffshoreInsiders.com charges. Vincent has his Conference USA Eastern Division Game of the Year. Pay Jonathan Stone $500 or get it for $40 at OffshoreInsiders.com

The Tigers had two rushing touchdowns, and Martin Hankins caught another in the loss.

Current streak:
Marshall has lost 4 straight games.
Memphis has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Marshall: 0-4 SU, 1-2 ATS
Memphis: 1-3 SU, 1-1-1 ATS

Marshall most recently:
When playing in October are 6-4
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 4-6

Memphis most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on turf are 2-8
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 2-8

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Marshall’s last 6 games on the road
Marshall is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Marshall is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Marshall is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Memphis is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games
Memphis is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home

Next up:
Marshall at Tulsa, Saturday, October 13
Memphis home to Middle Tennessee, Saturday, October 13

The latest college football odds show that Purdue is a 22.5 point betting favorite against Central Michigan. Forensic handicapping founder Stevie Vincent says take the points and go with the Chippewas.

This is no small play considering The Great One is now the choice of betting syndicates. In the early 1980s, Mark Lawrence’s Preferred Picks was considered the trends and angles guru. In football it was the Gold Sheet betting tip sheet. Curt Thomas was the NBA numbers guru.

Phil Steele and Northcoast Sports puts out great publications, but their picks have struggled mightily. Dr. Bob has his recent run and is still liked by some, but all the sharpies now jump on the forensic handicapping selections of BetOnSports360.com

The rationale is as follows for the CMU pick:

Central Michigan is 9-0 to the betting line off an over. They are also 13-3 in all games and 10-2 off of consecutive spread wins. CMU is also 12-3 against the spread after committing a turnover and 5-0 to teams with a winning record. Also according to the sportsbooks they are 13-3 after getting more than 450 total yards last game, and 20-6 after allowing more than 450 total yards last game.

There are plenty of reasons to go against the Boilermakers at your favorite online sportsbook. Purdue is 4-9 as a favorite, 7-17 against the odds after getting more than 450 total yards last game. They are 1-8 home favorites and 0-7 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing last game.

College football betting expert Stevie Vincent has one of the all-time great angles. This is among 3 Level 5 plays. The 28-1 angle is a game side but the other two Level 5 plays are over/under winners. Mastering over/under has been a staple of forensic handicapping. Stevie goes 5-0. BetOnSports360 plays are exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com

Maryland gets their first real test of the year as they host the Mountaineers from West Virginia. BetUs Sportsbook has West Virginia as a 16.5 point favorite with a total of 65.

Each team is 2-0. West Virginia disposed of Western Michigan and exploded in the second half to thrash Marshall.

Maryland, to say the least, had a pair of tune-ups with easy wins over Villanova and Florida International.

First half bettors will want to note that WVU is only outscoring their first two opponents by 17-13.5 in the first half. Former California Vulcan Jeff Casteel is the defensive coordinator at West Virginia and must improve on a defense that is allowing 4.8 yards per pass.

The Mountaineers have won the last three in the series, by 21, 12 and three in reverse chronological order. However, Terps coach Ralph Friedgen has a 4-3 overall edge over Rich Rodriquez.

Look for short, high-percentage passes from Maryland. Signal caller Jordan Steffy has completed 74 percent of his passes. Deep threat Darrius Heyward-Bey will keep the defense honest. He will test the porous WVU secondary with his 4.23 40-yard dash speed.

Joe Duffy’s GodsTips is undefeated with college football totals this year and has a Wise Guy play on the total. Piping hot Kal Elner has the biggest bet in the sports gaming industry on the side available through the MasterLockLine. Get these and all the top sports service best bets at OffshoreInsiders.com

Some computer betting trends show that West Virginia is 21-9 to the sportsbooks after a game in which they committed no turnovers. Conversely they are only 6-17 against the spread to the ACC including 2-10 their last 12.

West Virginia is a sensational 41-17 in the wallet after a game in which they rushed for 200 or more yards. Maryland is just 9-20, according to the pointspread, as a double digit dog. They are also just 1-6 if they allowed less than 20 points in their last game.

Sports handicapping news and notes for college football betting comes directly from the private clipboard of OffshoreInsiders.com

Georgia Tech-Notre Dame

Almost all reliable sources agree that Demetrius Jones will start at QB for Notre Dame or at least be the main signal caller. The Irish, of course, must replace Brady Quinn, now with the Cleveland Browns.

Missouri-Illinois

Cy McCormick of the MasterLockLine says that among sharp Las Vegas sports bettors and online gamblers, the consensus “surprise team” among BCS conferences is Illinois. “There is a lot of pressure on Missouri in this game. I see serious upset potential here.”

Florida International-Penn State

Look for Penn State coach Joe Paterno to use this game to experiment. Although he has 15 starters back, only one offensive lineman returns at his original position.

Houston-Oregon

Houston must replace one of their best quarterbacks ever Kevin Kolb. They face a high powered Oregon team, trying to match points with Blake Joseph and Case Keenum battling for the No. 1 spot. They have thrown eight passes between them at the college football level.

Houston has been experimenting with a new 4-2-5 defense and will likely face some no-huddle against the Ducks as they break in an unfamiliar alignment.

Baylor-TCU

Baylor wide receiver Thomas White admits his Bears are feeling disrespected over being 21-point underdogs. Last year, the Bears led TCU 7-0 at halftime. Baylor coach Guy Morriss has said he watched the game films from last year’s matchup “about 600 times”. Mike Godsey of GodsTips.com, generally considered the top football handicapper in the nation said, “That sounds like a circled game to me” referring to term used by pointspread bettors looking for a betting edge in which one team may be more motivated for a blowout or to keep a game close.

Colorado-Colorado State

Which team gets the best sleep? The kickoff is at 10:00 a.m. local time. Colorado will be without a lot of projected starters. Michael Sipili, the probable starting middle linebacker, was suspended with two reserves for offseason fighting incidents. Last year’s starting quarterback Bernard Jackson is out with personal issues. He was supposed to play more of a “slash” jack-of-all-trades position this year. True freshman Josh Smith, another likely starter, is out with a bruised kidney.

For free sports betting picks, visit OffshoreInsiders.com

Here are news and notes from the standpoint of pointspread investors. Information is from the private clipboard of the OffshoreInsiders.com sports handicappers and sports betting services.

Redskins-Jaguars

Mike Godsey, the top professional football betting analyst reports that the Redskins will have key players on the field longer than most teams to in the preseason finale. Quarterback Jason Campbell, third year player, but first year starter, will see his most extensive time of the preseason. Oft-injured running back Clinton Portis is also expected to see his first snaps of exhibition play.

Cowboys-Vikings

Over/under bettors, note that the Cowboys do have a big battle for the No. 3 QB position. Look for Matt Moore and Richard Bartel to be given a chance to air it out.

Chiefs-Rams

Chief’s starting quarterback Damon Huard will not play at all as he’s nursing a sore calf. Veteran tackle Kyle Turley will play despite missing practice Tuesday for personal reasons.

Cardinals-Broncos

The Cardinals will play their starters on each side of the ball for one or two series. Denver backup signal caller Patrick Ramsey, an experienced starter, will get little or no playing time. Preston Parsons and Darrell Hackney will get most of the playing time at center. They have four completions combined this preseason.

49ers-Chargers

Cy McCormick, who is on the “winners list” of most online sportsbooks, reports that San Francisco’s starting units for each side of the ball will play 12 snaps or the entire first quarter, whichever comes first.

Bills-Lions

Buffalo’s starters will play two series at the most. J.P. Losman will get the start at QB, Craig Nall will also play a series or two than rookie Trent Edwards goes the rest of the way. Cornerback Terrence McGee is out and wise receiver Lee Evens is very unlikely to play.

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Preseason results are worthless in predicting the spread winners in NFL gambling. The Indianapolis Colts are 2-12 straight up their last 14 exhibition contests. During that span, they became the first team in NFL history to begin 9-0 in consecutive seasons.

While in the NBA and MLB, exhibition results are actually a good warning of which teams will come out of the gate quickly or slowly, making the first 10 days of MLB easy pickings on underdogs, not so in the NFL. The Colts have won 14-of-16 September games outright.

From 1992-95, Dallas was 49-15 in the regular season, winning three Super Bowls. Their preseason mark in those years was 7-12-1.

While appearing in four Super Bowls from 1990-93, Buffalo was also 49-15 in regular season contests. In practice contests: 6-12.

Ben Roethlisberger was abysmal in the 2005 preseason. All he did after that was--in Bob Griese, Joe Montana, Tom Brady fashion--efficiently direct the Pittsburgh Steelers to Super Bowl victory.

One of the biggest myths in successful sports gambling comes from the squares who claim sharp players don’t bet preseason football. Those who bet on sports for a living know accurate motivational and key player rotation information is obtainable.

However the actual results hold no value in beating the regular season NFL odds. Even the Roethlisberger example showed focusing on key players will often result in false positives or negatives.

A comparable player at a comparable point in his career is a good example. Arizona is a great candidate to be this year’s Cinderella. It call comes down to how far their young signal caller Matt Leinart has progressed.

What can we deduce from his mixed preseason performance? Sports wagering NFL experts will tell you, “nothing”.

Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, is enemy No. 1 at the sports books. His premium plays and expert advice can be had there as part of sports service GodsPicks.

Here are Tuesday’s baseball betting news and notes from the private clipboard of the top baseball handicappers at OffshoreInsiders.com

Devil Rays-Orioles

Tampa’s Jason Hammel has a 10.42 ERA in the month of August. However, he faces an Orioles team that has lost six straight. Daniel Cabrera is 6-0 lifetime to Tampa with a 2.90 ERA.

Twins-Indians

Cleveland’s Jake Westbrook has been a sensational fantasy baseball pitcher as of late, sporting a 1.50 ERA in his last 36 innings. World class handicapper Stevie Vincent, one of the OffshoreInsiders.com top experts, notes that Kason Gabbard has great splits numbers. Texas has won all six of his home starts and his home ERA is 2.38 with a .912 WHIP.

Angels-Mariners

The Halos Jeff Weaver is what master sports handicapper Joe Duffy likes to call “predictably unpredictable”. He’s allowed one run or less in 20 starts, but six or more in seven trips to the hill.

Reds-Pirates

Cincinnati enters this double-header with the longest winning streak in MLB at eight games.

Mets-Phillies

Philadelphia southpaw Adam Eaton has been abysmal all year as his 6.36 ERA and 1.62 WHIP dictates. Fresh off the DL, he takes on the first-place Mets in a relative “must win” for the Phillies. Surprisingly, Eaton has a 5-0 lifetime record to the Mets with a 1.89 ERA.

The Phillies are winless in 12 games as a home underdog in 2007.

Braves-Marlins

Florida is ice cold, losing 9-of-11. The Braves send future Hall-of-Famer John Smoltz to the hill off of consecutive wins in which he’s pitched 18 innings combined and given up just four runs. Smoltz is 13-6 career to the Marlins with a 2.70 ERA.

Florida is 1-15 for -16.8 units this year when their bullpen ERA is 3.00 or less in their previous 10 games.

Brewers-Cubs

Red hot Rich Hill totes the mound for Chicago. Over his last two starts he’s given up three runs with a 17-3 walk-to-strikeout ratio. The Brew Crew are 4-16 -15.5 their last 20 to teams that average .9 or less homeruns per game.

Nationals-Dodgers

Washington’s Jason Bergmann makes his first start in more than a month.

For premium sports service winners, go to OffshoreInsiders.com

The premier sports handicapping experts of Covers-Experts.com take a look at some early betting news and notes for the first week of college football.

Tennessee-California

It’s of course a huge revenge game for the Golden Bears. Last year, the Volunteers crushed Cal in the season opener 35-18. Cal returns 16 starters, eight on one of the top offenses in the country.

UL Lafayette-South Carolina

South Carolina free safety Emanuel Cook, an All-SEC selection last year as a freshman, is suspended as is Gamecocks starting quarterback Blake Mitchell.

Washington State-Wisconsin

New Badgers quarterback Tyler Donovan has only two starts under his belt. However, he does have proven playmakers returning to help with his transition: tight ends Travis Beckum and Andy Crooks, tailback P.J