I was insanely thrilled to get sports back after the pandemic shutdown. As the adage goes, be be careful what you ask for, as the all-time outlier occurred. I went in my worst slump in 32 years as a handicapper and several years before that as a gambler. Write it up to being 2020? Yes-but nuanced. The devil is in the details.
I’ve always affirmed that bookmakers and squares loathe uncertainty, but sharps exploit it. But that’s because of the “predictable unpredictability” of sports betting. But in unprecedented times, the unpredictability was…unpredictable for once. The world being upended meant tested and confirmed regression to the mean and other models lacked the normal conditions to apply.
But why do the biggest slumps I’ve ever had continually, and I do mean always and forever get followed by even greater winning streaks? Do I have a guardian angel? Nope. We stay the course. When squares profit short-term, the books know they will double-down on same techniques—generally favorites and overs, though it is a little more complex than that. Books have to adjust, only strengthening the sharpest pro bettor angles in a freakish decline.
A great quote from It’s a Wonderful Life “Potter isn’t selling. Potter’s buying! And why? Because we’re panicky and he’s not. That’s why.” Not surprisingly, we have a lot more demonstrated winning systems favoring unders in NFL. If you are a long-term client, you’ve cashed in for many years with us. The first four weeks of NFL 2020 saw all games over 36-22-5 for greater than 62 percent. Books were saying both privately to me and in public articles, they can’t keep getting parched by overs, so they shaded the lines. We didn’t panic and after a 7-7 week 5, 56 percent of NFL games have gone under. That’s not our bets, that’s just overall in the league.
And our top systems have been hitting over 60 percent since markets righted themselves—again. Just as they always do.
But Joeybagodonuts is still chasing his losses, forever hoping he can replicate the magic of the squares getting the big upper hand early. When we say the winning streaks always have outnumbered and outlasted the rare losing streaks, it’s from decades of experience and wisdom as to why it happens.
The biggest lesson of 2020 for sports bettors is when you have proven metrics, you need to persevere. Don’t jump off a ship that has scientifically proven it won’t sink. You will only drown by leaping overboard.
I’ll bet Mr. Potter was a shrewd gambler.
The author, Joe Duffy CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com is enjoying punishing the bookies for getting a rare upper hand in the early weeks of football. So are the other services on said site, LateInfo topping the list.