Whether one is at a Las Vegas sportsbook, wagering with the corner bookie, or betting at William Hill, the key is quality picks and good information. Here is a free NFL pick on what just may be the marquee game of the week, the New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints.
On the game line, New England is (-2.5) with a total of 50.5. Pro bettors best value is on the total.
New England-New Orleans UNDER 50.5
One of the skills we pro gamblers have is separating perception from reality and exploiting off lines. In this case of this game totals that are inflated accordingly. Brees versus Brady, the knee-jerk reaction for square bettors is to bet over. This is why the already high posted total has gone up from 49.5. Though NFL totals betting does not have true “key numbers” that sides do, when the total crosses a number than can be divided by seven or ten, there is at least some significance. This obviously crossed 50, hence meeting that threshold.
New England has gone under 4-of-5 by an average margin of 13.5. They have had three games go under by 18.5 or more. Margin of Cover, or called the sweat barometer by some, is a strong tool in evaluating which teams are truly over or undervalued. In this case it is applied to totals, demonstrating that oddsmakers clearly bloat the over/under of both teams. So we have the perfect storm for totals bettors.
The Saints have also gone under 4-of-5, all by 6.5 or more and three by 10.5 or more. Tom Brady has fewer weapons than ever, but the line does not reflect that. They are getting just 5.8 yards per pass to teams normally allowing 6.4.
Sean Payton and the Saints are leading the NFL in time of possession this season. This is because he focused on his year off on improving defense and the running game, plus showing patience and throwing under coverage. This total is based on the 2012 versions of these teams. We are betting 2013 under.
Again, the pick is the Saints-Patriots game to go UNDER the high total.