Much like March Madness, the Super Bowl is always the time of the year where a large percentage of American’s wager in one way or another. Whether it’s the pedestrian “squares” pool that omnipresent at seemingly every Super Bowl party, the prop bets exploited by fantasy football players, or most importantly the point spread picks and the over/under selections on the Packers vs. Steelers game itself, significant money will change hands this weekend.
Not uncommon, the public is betting the favorite and the over thus far. Green Bay is up to a (-2.5 -120) favorite and the total is now as high as 45 at some sportsbooks.
Some of the best proposition bets:
Jordy Nelson (Green Bay) pass receptions: over 3 -148
Pittsburgh has the best run defense in the NFL. With top RB Ryan Grant and TE Jermichael Finley long gone, possession receiver Nelson is the Pack’s best ball control alternative. He is likely to be a big hot read option. The pick should be in by halftime.
James Starks (Green Bay) rushing yards: under 45.5 +129
The Steelers allow 3.0 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.1. Only twice in his entire career has Starks rushed for more than 3.5 yards per carry. Now in the biggest game of his life, the rookie faces the best run defense in the NFL. He will be lucky to get 20 yards rushing.
Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh) passing attempts: over 30.5 -135
It is considered to be a “fast track” at Cowboys Stadium. The AFC Championship ended 14 straight games in which Pittsburgh passed at least 27 times. Pittsburgh barely escaped a historic meltdown against the Jets by getting Marty Schottenheimer conservative. They finally put the game away with a couple of completions.
We don’t see the Steelers getting too conservative with the lead. But if the oddsmakers are correct, the Men of Steele will probably be behind in the fourth quarter, making it more likely they will throw often.
There are already some wacky wagers up such as what will be higher Aaron Rodgers completions or Dwayne Wade points. Bettors can bet the higher number: Aaron Rodgers completion percentage or Dwight Howard free throw percentage.
How about Andrew Quarless receiving yards or Jared Sullinger (Ohio State) points or Ben Roethlisberger completions vs. Paul Pierce points?
There will certainly be odds on the length of the national anthem, not to mention Super Bowl commercial props. “Personally, I never worry about prop bets, it’s all about who covers,” opines sports handicapper Stevie Vincent.
For more information: Get all the NFL handicapping information, betting picks and more on the OffshoreInsiders.com Network.