Yesterday, we discussed common NFL betting player props like predicting the NFL’s yardage leaders in passing, receiving and rushing. Today’s let’s look at a different kind of prop: head-to-head player props.
These props pit two players (usually at the same position) against each other; bettors can predict who will outperform the other in a specific stat category. Here’s a look at some NFL quarterback touchdown pass head-to-heads for 2010 – with a sports betting blog pick included for each.
Aaron Rodgers vs Drew Brees (-3)
As much as Drew Brees racks up offensive numbers, Aaron Rodgers looks like he’s just as good. Brees threw for 34 scores last season; he’s hit that mark two years in a row, setting a career high. But whereas it took Brees until his seventh NFL season as a starter to throw 30 TD passes, Rodgers did it in his second. Rodgers appears to have a higher ceiling. I think he’ll top Brees this year.
Free pick: Rodgers +3
Peyton Manning (-5) vs Tony Romo
Love Romo on this one. Manning and Romo already posted fairly comparable passing stats last year. This season, Romo is playing in the best offense he’s ever had around him. Miles Austin, Jason Witten, Felix Jones, Dez Bryant, Marion Barber, Roy Williams – he has tons of viable weapons. I think Romo will explode into MVP consideration this year, so staying within five touchdown passes of Manning seems very doable.
Free pick: Romo +5
Jay Cutler vs Tom Brady (-2.5)
Sports betting players should be careful not to overthink this one. Yes, Cutler should have a breakout season under new offensive co-ordinator “Mad” Mike Maritz. But I see that translating into mega passing yards, not mega touchdowns. Cutler will still turn over the ball too much to pass the far more efficient Brady in touchdown passes.
Free pick: Brady -2.5
Brett Favre vs Matt Schaub (-2)
I’m somewhat bearish on Favre this year. He’s another year older and two of his favorite targets, Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, are major health concerns. Rice is already out at least half the season with hip surgery and Harvin hasn’t solved his migraine woes yet. Favre could regress statistically whereas Matt Schaub, who led the NFL in passing yards last year, is only getting better.
Free pick: Schaub -2