OffshoreInsiders Handicapping Blog

It’s without question one of the great days of the year for sports bettors and sports handicappers. The San Antonio Spurs open up the Western Conference NBA Finals against the New Orleans Hornets, while in the Eastern Conference, the not-exactly-Eastern Detroit Pistons host the Orlando Magic.

The ‘Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sport’ arrives on Saturday with the 134^th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. According to sports betting expert Joe Duffy, the only Grandmaster sports handicapper in the world, “It’s the most profitable two minutes in sports.” He says the chalk won’t win today and he has the win, place and show at GodsTips on OffshoreInsiders.com

Out of the 20-horse field entered in the Derby, Big Brown has been singled out as the favorite at 3/1. Trained by Richard Dutrow Jr. and ridden by two-time Derby winner Kent Desormeaux, Big Brown has gone undefeated as a three-year-old with three victories which includes an impressive win in the Florida Derby. However, if Big Brown does win he’ll have to go against history to do it. Big Brown was unlucky in the post draw and drew the outside No. 20 post. In the Derby’s lengthy history, only one horse has won out of the No. 20 post in 15 attempts. That lone winner was Clyde Van Dusen way back in 1929.

Big Brown’s bad luck in the post draw could provide an opening for Colonel John or Pyro to pull off an upset. Colonel John follows Big Brown on the odds list at 4/1. Colonel John won the Santa Anita Derby early last month, but the Derby will be the first race he has ever run on a dirt track. All of Colonel John’s previous races were run on synthetic tracks, which could put him at a disadvantage in poor conditions. Pyro was considered to be a perennial favorite after winning his first two races of the season, but a disappointing 10^th-place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes has lowered his stock a little. Even with the questions after his Blue Grass finish, Pyro is still listed at 6/1 in the Derby.

There are a number of other interesting stories scattered throughout the rest of the field of 20, including Eight Belles. Listed at 20/1, Eight Belles is the first filly entered in the Derby since 1999 when Excellent Meeting finished fifth and Three Rings was 19^th.

Trainer Barclay Tagg, who trained 2003 Derby champion Funny Cide, pins his hopes for a return to the winner’s circle on Tale of Ekati. The 15/1 underdog won the Wood Memorial earlier this season to make him an interesting dark horse on Saturday. Tagg also has Big Truck in the Derby, but he’s already been written off after receiving the worst odds in the field at 50/1.

Trainer Todd Pletcher failed to snap his long Derby drought last year and he’ll try again with a pair of horses this year. At 0-for-19 in the Derby, Pletcher’s best chance at breaking that streak appears to be Monba, who won the Blue Grass Stakes earlier this year and enters the Derby at 15/1. Pletcher’s other entry is Cowboy Cal at 20/1.

Two other horses listed at 20/1 which are noteworthy include Visionaire and Denis of Cork. Visionaire is this year’s entry for trainer Michael Matz, who trained 2006 winner Barbaro. Oddly enough, Visionaire drew the eighth post, the same position Barbaro started from the year he won. Denis of Cork will be ridden by Calvin Borel, who rode Street Sense to victory in last year’s Derby. The last jockey to win the Derby in back-to-back years was Ed Delahoussaye on Gato Del Sol in 1982 and on Sunny’s Halo in 1983.

Odds to win Kentucky Derby (updated live)

Big Brown 3/1
Colonel John 4/1
Pyro 6/1
Gayego 15/1
Monba 15/1
Tale of Ekati 15/1
Z Fortune 15/1
Bob Black Jack 20/1
Cool Coal Man 20/1
Court Vision 20/1
Cowboy Cal 20/1
Denis of Cork 20/1
Eight Belles 20/1
Recapturetheglory 20/1
Smooth Air 20/1
Visionaire 20/1
Adriano 30/1
Anak Nakal 30/1
Z Humor 30/1
Big Truck 50/1

Other key betting odds see that for the first time the American Idol Las Vegas odds say that David Archuleta is more likely to not win American Idol by -130 then to win at -110. Also thanks to the racist, anti-American rants of his pastor Jeremiah Wright, Barack Obama is no longer considered a lock for the Democratic nomination for the President of the United States betting line. Hillary Clinton is within striking distance at 5/2.

However, Obama is still in a dead heat with John McCain in the POTUS odds at 8/7.