OffshoreInsiders Handicapping Blog

The 133^rd running of the Preakness Stakes goes at Pimlico Race Course on Saturday, as Big Brown tries to add the second jewel of the Triple Crown to his growing list of accomplishments.

Big Brown dominated at Churchill Downs two weeks ago, easily winning the Kentucky Derby by 4 ¾ lengths. The Derby victory maintained Big Brown’s perfect record, which now sits at 4-0. Big Brown will break from the seventh post at the Preakness, which has held five wins in the past 19 years.  It will be a shocker if Big Brown doesn’t make it 5-0 at Pimlico on Saturday, especially as a huge ½ race favorite.

Big Brown won the Derby so easily that only one other horse that raced at Churchill Downs will also be racing at Pimlico on Saturday. That lone horse is Gayego, who didn’t even challenge in the Derby, finishing well back in 17^th place out of 20 horses. This will be the first time since 1980 that only two horses from the Derby will compete in the Preakness. The two returnees in 1980 were Codex and Derby winner Genuine Risk, with Codex winning in an upset.

Before Gayego became a late Preakness addition, the No. 1 challenger to Big Brown appeared to be Behindatthebar, who was listed at 10/1. Things quickly changed on Friday after Behindatthebar became a late scratch from the race due to a bruised front left foot. This was the second horse to bow out after Recapturetheglory was force to withdraw due to a fever.

With Behindatthebar out, the odds quickly rise after the top two with a pair of horses - Kentucky Bear and Yankee Bravo - both listed at 15/1. Kentucky Bear doesn’t have a Stakes race win under his belt this season, which makes him unlikely to win his first at the Preakness. Yankee Bravo won the California Derby earlier this year, but followed that up with a fourth place in the Santa Anita Derby and a third place in the Louisiana Derby. Yankee Bravo may not have the speed to keep up with Big Brown and the rest of the race leaders.

The nation’s top sports handicapper Joe Duffy of GodsTips has the top four finishers in order at OffshoreInsiders.com

Among the rest of the field, the strongest horse with a chance to upset Big Brown looks to be Hey Byrn at 20/1. Hey Byrn has raced against Big Brown once this season in the Florida Derby where he finished in fourth place, while Big Brown went on to the winner’s circle. However, Hey Byrn did win the Holy Bull Stakes last month, which is run at the same distance as the Preakness.

Pimlico Race Course – Preakness Stakes Odds

Big Brown ½
Gayego 8/1
Behindatthebar - Scratched
Kentucky Bear 15/1
Yankee Bravo 15/1
Hey Byrn 20/1
Macho Again 20/1
Giant Moon 30/1
Icabad Crane 30/1
Racecar Rhapsody 30/1
Riley Tucker 30/1
Stevil 30/1
Tres Borrachos 30