OffshoreInsiders Handicapping Blog

Monday Night Football will have fantasy football and sports betting experts alike watching the Green Bay Packers take on the Denver Broncos.

The top all-time NFL handicapper Mike Godsey of GodsTips.com says that one of the keys to finding overvalued versus undervalued teams is comparing straight up records and points per game stats to the “real stats that handicappers use”, teams net yardage margin.

There is not a huge edge there as Green Bay is 5-2 straight up, but 4-2 in winning net yards margin. Denver is 3-3 straight up and 2-4 with the “net yardage margin” win-loss record. However, they have been beaten statistically in four straight games.

On offense, Green Bay is getting 5.5 yards per play against teams normally allowing 5.3. Denver gets 4.7 yards per carry against teams normally allowing 4.3 and 7.5 yards per pass against teams normally allowing 6.5. That’s a cumulative 6.2 to 5.5.

On defense, the Cheese Heads allow just 3.8 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.3. Their opponent, Denver allows 5.1 yards per rush against teams normally allowing 4.4 and 7.2 yards per pass against teams normally allowing 6.7. That’s 5.9 yards per play against teams normally allowing 5.9.

Green Bay has played only two road games, but won both averaging 29 points per game and allowing just 14.5.

The Broncos have won two straight Monday night games at Invesco Field, and 10 of their last 13 Monday home games. Brett Favre has lost five straight on MNF.

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