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NFL

Wise Guy…

MINNESOTA +2 Green Bay

Minnesota has the league’s best run defense and a great one-two punch at running back with Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson. Yes Taylor is expected to play and start. Who starts at QB for Minnesota, really isn’t as important because there is no edge in the raw quarterback of the future versus the journey of Kelly Holcomb.

We are sold on Green Bay being a good team, but not on the verge of being 4-0 squad. Going with any team on the moneyline after a loss of 6 or less against foe after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games is +81.6 on the moneyline.

NY GIANTS +3 Philadelphia

The Eagles personify both ends of one of our gambling Golden Rules: each week there are 3-5 teams that are not nearly as good as they looked and 3-5 teams that are not nearly as bad as they’ve looked.

Remember, Philly put it all together after looking abysmal in Weeks one and two. Philly’s Brian Westbrook is a gametime decision, but we don’t expect him to be 100 percent even if he plays. He is huge for Philly. He did not practice this week. Meanwhile, our sources tell us key Giants weapons Plaxico Burress will start.

Major…

SEATTLE -2 San Francisco

Shaun Alexander will wear down the league’s No. 25 run defense. Though we are actually sold on the 49ers being a team on the verge of breaking out, they are without key chain mover tight end Vernon Davis.

Seattle can also move the ball in the air as they average 7.4 passing yards per attempt against teams normally allowing 6.4. Seattle’s domination of San Francisco suffered a setback last year when they were swept.

To be sure, the formula for beating Seattle will be more complicated than it was last season. In both games, the 49ers kept pounding running back Frank Gore into the line and when he broke into the secondary, the Seahawks safeties tackled - or rather, didn’t tackle - like Chickenhawks. Holmgren didn’t mess around. He dumped both of the old safeties last winter and signed two new ones, Deon Grant (from Jacksonville) and Brian Russell (from Cleveland).

Grant and Russell can tackle. With Alexander and Hasselbeck both in the line-up, which was not the case last year, they are one of the top teams in the NFC. They get the win today.

INDIANAPOLIS -9.5 -115 Denver

The last two times Denver has come to Indianapolis, the Colts scored 90 points. This is a competitor consensus. If we do not have a lean towards one side but it does not rise to the level of premium play, but get a strong play or consensus from the few other handicappers we respect, we pass it as a “competitor consensus”.

ARIZONA +230 (Moneyline) Pittsburgh

Arizona’s head coach Ken Whisenhunt and assistant head coach Russ Grimm know the Steelers as well as their current coaching staff. Going with any team on the moneyline after a loss of 6 or less against foe after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games is +81.6 on the moneyline.

ATLANTA +3 Houston

Houston’s best weapons Ahman Green is likely out and Andre Johnson is out. Houston may be without three of their top five receivers. Atlanta has a very winnable game. While we singled out Houston as a dark horse team before the year, it was because of several weapons they will be without today.

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