Joe Duffy (
Robert Frost wrote a classic poem about the “Road Not
Taken” in which he chooses “the one less taken by.” This may be a great lesson
in life, but not so much in sports handicapping.
Sharp players are like scientists.
theories. Working on a tip from one of
SportsLine360.com’s Board of Directors and pro bettor Jerry McCarn,
a supposition has been tested and added to ratifying such process.
It applies in every sport.
When one team has played a disproportionate percentage of their games on
the road, they generally are undervalued and not surprisingly, when a squad has
played a disproportionately home heavy schedule, they are typically overrated.
This hypothesis essentially further supports or in some
cases, counters the home/road dichotomy or “splits” used by many bettors,
present company included. It also fills in a missing piece in even some of the
more accurate strength of schedule ratings, in that it greatly helps isolate
important angles in that line of thinking.
A meeting of teams that have each fitting into the
extremes of such category is not all that uncommon. Unbalanced schedules are
par for the course over a season. When
one team has played approximately 60 percent of the games at home, the other
the same ratio on the road, we do at least put a red checkmark in the column of
the team that has done the more traveling.
The reason for this is simple.
in sports gambling is the respective teams straight up won-loss records. Oddsmakers
know teams with superior straight up records always get the public betting
affection.
Not only does the sharp player know better, but the
sharpest of them all can spot a disingenuous winning percentage. A simple
review of a team’s schedule to date is a supreme starting point. We will add a
follow-up to Mr. Frost’s writing that taking the road less traveled does have
its remuneration, but only if paved the way by excursions on the road most
traveled.
Joe Duffy’s sports betting selections are at