OffshoreInsiders Handicapping Blog

Sunday, November 26, 2006

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NFL

ATLANTA -3 New Orleans

These are the types of games we exploit.  We told you time and time again, inconsistency is the biggest enemy of the oddsmakers and square players, but a huge asset to sharp players. Just as we told you flat out, when Michael Vick was off the two best back-to-back games of his career and laying big points on the road, he would fall flat on his face.  He’s done it his entire career.  But just when it looks like Atlanta is better off benching him, he comes out and looks like a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. That’s what history says will happen today, especially against the craptastic defense of New Orleans.

The Saints have returned to earth, losing 3-of-4 SU.  But history does not say this is when they will rebound. The rode a lot of emotion early in the year and we rode them.  They are not sneaking up on everyone anymore. Saints star receiver Marques Colston will be less than 100 percent, but we expect him to play. However he is hurt enough that he missed practice Friday.

Atlanta, on the other hand, gets two very important players back Sunday, defensive end John Abraham and MLB Ed Hartwell. it will mark the first time all season the two have been on the field at the same time. “That’s one of the biggest reasons why we haven’t been playing well or playing like we’re capable of playing,” linebacker Ike Reese said of their assortment of injuries. “You have to realize how our defense is built, and those guys are a big part of our defense. Coming into the season, we knew they’d be big parts to the success of our defense.

Atlanta will be much closer to full strength by putting Hartwell back at middle linebacker, moving Keith Brooking back to his more-natural weakside-linebacker spot and allowing linebacker Demorrio Williams to be used only during passing situations.  Hartwell said he’s not only healthy, but he’s strong for the final six games. While other players are starting to feel the rigors of the preseason and 10 regular season games, he and Abraham are just getting started.

“A lot of the teams, the players’ legs are tired. We’re fresh,” Hartwell said. “We’re going into the rest of the season and into the playoffs with fresh legs. That’s scary right there. We have some players that are going to run around with a motor that you usually don’t see at the end of the season.”