OffshoreInsiders Handicapping Blog

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Many handicappers have
authored various articles on March Madness. 
Frankly America style='color:windowtext'>’s greatest sports service the Dream Team at
Godspicks.com we think tops the list. 
However a “March of Dimes” must begin with triumph in the conference
tournaments.

Here is an inventory of parameters to look for:

New beginnings: So often you hear us quote the famed Yogi-ism of “90 percent of the game is half-mental.” Teams that underachieved especially late in the year recurrently mentally regroup come conference single elimination time. It’s time to get those preseason coaches polls and contrast them to the regular season final standings. If season ending injuries or players being kicked off the team are not rationale for the major divergence, bet the differentiation.  Teams like Missouri and Florida come to mind as line-ups that will rise to the occasion.

Bubble favorites: Teams that need an impressive run in the conference playoffs leave nothing to chance against the inferior teams. We have found no real value going for or against “bubble” dogs, but actually the more points the capricious team is laying, the stronger stake they are.

Read the previous day’s boxscores: Every now and then the obvious is true.  When teams are playing two, three or even four consecutive days, depth and how many minutes their key players have played is inestimable enlightenment. Nagging injuries are magnified.

Go against top seeds that need rest more than wins: As Godspicks clients remember one of our biggest plays all of last year was UCLA over Arizona in the Pac-10 Tournament.  Considering Wildcats boss Lute Olson already announced he would just as soon lose early in the Pac 10 playoffs so his players could get rested for the Big Dance, wiseguys were laughing when everyone else called it a huge upset.  Sharp players listened. This is a major intangible that local newspapers will shed light on—which coaches admit they won’t play their star players 38 minutes per game just to get the official automatic bid when a high seed is already clinched regardless.

Recent shooting percentages: The single most foretelling statistic may surprise some people, but it’s the shooting percentage by a team in their previous five games relative to the cumulative defensive average of their opponents in that span. Foxsheets is the best database for this. Squads in a shooting groove are the toughest opponents in the postseason.  It’s chic to preach teams playing great defense and riding such teams is important too, but a red-hot shooting team can exploit the best defenses more than visa versa.

Don’t sleep, surf: In the competition to get your business, sportsbooks are posting lines earlier and earlier and in fact are handicapped in that they can’t use the prescriptions discussed here when making the line.  Hence key overlooked information comes in the morning papers, on Sportingnews and ESPN Radio and on the teams’ own sites.  Sharp information is much more prevalent in the conference celebrations than the regular season or Big Dance.

Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com.  He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show,  Gridiron Gamblers, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show.  Get daily free news and notes, including advanced notes at www.joeduffy.net