Thanksgiving NFL Betting, Egg Bowl Market Report

Turkey day college and NFL market report. My word, OffshoreInsiders.com has the strongest industry bets in every football game, plus Duffy with massive college basketball portfolio. 

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: NY Giants, 

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Ole Miss

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Dallas -7 to -10; Ole Miss -5.5 to -1.5

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets.

There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

[Table id=1 /] 

Jive Turkey! Thanksgiving Day NFL Betting Props

Below you will find a cornucopia of Thanksgiving Day props for the trio of NFL games, courtesy of at Betonline, the home of the opening line .

Also, speaking of being thankful…have you ever wondered which NFL fanbase complains the most about officiating?

Well, a semi-scientific Twitter study was recently conducted to find out which team’s fans whine about the refs the most, and the results are a bit surprising. 

BetOnline conducted the study using geo-tagged Twitter data via an API trends software. From Week 1 to Week 11, the sampling compiled and analyzed tweets, hashtags and keyword phrases tracking negative fan tweets about NFL officiating for each team. 

To find out who complains the most, the team looked at the total number of fan tweets (in general) and then determined what percentage of those tweets were complaints about refs.

For example, we looked at all tweets with the fan hashtag #ChiefsKingdom, that also included phrases like, “bad call,” “horrible call,” “bad officiating,” “horrible officiating,” “missed call,” “horrible refs,” “refs beat us,” “refs screwed us,” etc. Then repeated this for all the other teams and their hashtags. 

More than 400,000 tweets were tracked. Here is an informap to accompany the findings

As you can see from the graphic, the Chiefs, Bears and Cowboys fans have the most gripes, while Colts fans complain the least.

The top 10 fan bases that complain most about NFL officiating are as follows: (percentage of total tweets that are ref complaints)

Chiefs – 12.78%

Bears – 11.88%

Cowboys – 10.55%

Dolphins – 10.20%

Titans – 9.09%

Commanders – 8.96%

Lions – 8.00%

Eagles – 5.93%

Vikings – 5.85%

Patriots – 5.34%

Thanksgiving Records Broken                

Most Receiving Yards – A.Johnson 188                +500

Most Passing Yards – T.Aikman 455                    +700

Most Sacks – C.Jordan 4                                     +1600

Most Receiving TDs – S.Sharpe 4                        +2000

Most Passing TDs – P.Manning 6                         +2500

Most Rushing Yards – OJ.Simpson 273                +3300

Thanksgiving Passing Yards Leader                    

J.Allen                          +250

K.Cousins                      +300

D.Prescott                    +400

J.Goff                           +425

M.Jones                        +625

D.Jones                         +1000

Thanksgiving Receiving Yards Leader                

J.Jefferson                    +200

S.Diggs                         +350

A.St.Brown                   +500

C.Lamb                         +600

G.Davis                         +1000

J.Meyers                       +1400

A.Thielen                      +2000

D.Slayton                      +2000

M.Gallup                      +2000

TJ Hockenson                +2500

Thanksgiving Rushing Yards Leader                   

S.Barkley                      +350

D.Cook                         +375

T.Pollard                       +500

R.Stevenson                  +650

D.Singletary                  +750

J.Williams                     +750

Josh Allen                     +1200

E.Elliott                         +1400

Daniel Jones                 +2000

Damien Harris               +2500

Will there be a special teams/defensive TD on Thanksgiving?                

Yes                   -200

No                    +150

Will any Thanksgiving game go to overtime?                 

No                    -900

Yes                   +500

Winners for side and totals at OffshoreInsiders.com

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NBA Betting, College Basketball Wagering Market Report For Monday

Basketball market report for Monday. 

First to the NBA:

🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Cleveland, Oklahoma City; Atlanta OVER

🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Minnesota; Indiana UNDER, Boston OVER

🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Chicago, Cleveland UNDER, Indiana UNDER

🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: New Orleans -5.5 to -10.5, LA Clippers -4.5 to -1

Onward to college hoops:

🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Arizona 

🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Florida Gulf Coast

🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Miss State, South Florida 

🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Abilene Christian +3 to -2.5, Cal Riverside +1 to -3.5, Kansas State -8.5 to -11.5

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Early Steam Report For Thanksgiving Week College Football and NFL Betting

Thanksgiving week is one of the biggest in football betting. In between beating World Cup odds, here is the early steam report in NFL and college football betting from sportsbooks all over the world such as vetted LUX Sports

Early NFL steam:

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: LA Chargers, Tennessee, Miami; Minnesota UNDER

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington; Minnesota UNDER

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: No significant line moves yet

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: LA Rams, NY Jets; San Francisco UNDER

Early college football steam:

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: LSU, Auburn, UNC

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Illinois, Kansas State, Michigan

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Eastern Michigan -1.5 to +1.5, Utah State -14.5 to -16.5

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: Boston College, USC

There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

College football top over and under teams at top sportsbooks for college football and NFL odds based on margin of cover.

Top over teams:

Team       OU Record (overs-under)                                         OU margin
Houston 9-2+12.6
South Florida 7-3-1+8.7
Toledo6-5+8.2

In terms of percentage, Rice, Northern Illinois, Ohio State, UCLA, Memphis, Colorado, Penn State, USC, Arkansas are all 8-3 to the over, tied for second to Houston. Rice has the highest cover margin of said teams, going over by an average of 6.0 points per game. 

Top under teams in college football:

Team       OU Record (overs-under)                                         OU margin
Iowa State2-9-12
Marshall2-9-11.5
Virginia2-7-1-11.4
Troy 4-7-10.1
Kentucky1-10-9.1

 Colorado State is second in terms of under percentage at 1-9-1 but only by an average of -6.8 points per game. 

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer. 

Contrarian Bets, Line Moves, Full Market Report on Betting Splits For College Football

Today’s college football market report, Saturday, November 19 from Joe Duffy. 

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Charlotte, Oklahoma St; TCU OVER

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Colorado St, Charlotte, Navy; MTSU UNDER, GA Southern UNDER

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Oregon -2 to +2.5, Utah State +3 to pick, Wisconsin -12.5 to -9.5

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: UAB, Arizona State; Florida State UNDER

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There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

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Why is Joe Duffy Universally Accepted as Best Capper in History? Check out the Level of Intel

This is the intel you get every damn day. Of course the ONLY loser is when a 28.5 dog explodes for the final eight points of the game for a horrific bad beat so we settle for 5-1. Did you read the intel? Joe Duffy, OffshoreInsiders.com

Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet. 

NFL 

Wise Guy

TENNESSEE +3 Green Bay

Interconference Prime Time Game of the Year 

Fade teams in a short week off an overtime game is 21-2. In fact, underdogs are 8-4 SU. Fade home teams that had good fortune based on penalties resulting in first downs last game is 554-432-35. Fading offenses as favorites with at least 90 more snaps is 223-173-10.

CBB

Major

CHARLESTON -3.5 Davidson

This is an outsourced pick from the short-list of very entrusted experts. Previously called a competitor consensus, the name was changed to reflect it does not always come from the few quality professionals who sell picks, but also can come from any sharp source. As long as I am not leaning the other way, I will bet a trusted outscource. Both of our contrarian indexes, one worldwide sportsbooks, the other has to do with super-square outlaw money, has this as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide.

CREIGHTON -18.5 UC Riverside

Highly ranked teams in non-conference home games make big statements. In fact, generally the bigger the favorite the better to the tune of 271-198. Our tremendous data-engineering model has our pick covering 62 percent of time by 22 points per game. 

ARIZONA -28.5 Utah State

Highly ranked teams in non-conference home games make big statements. In fact, generally the bigger the favorite the better to the tune of 271-198. Our best advanced computer model has Zona covering 64 percent of simulations by an average of 32 points.

NBA

Wise Guy

San Antonio-Sacramento OVER 236

Western Conference Total of the Month 

When the total is much higher than that of the total of each teams last game, listen to what the oddsmakers are telling us because it goes over 595-413-52. Our top-rated simulator program has them going over 74 percent of time with an average of 250 points scored.

Major 

Detroit-LA Clippers UNDER 216

Total relative to last two games goes under 393-237-21. Total relative to recent numbers goes under 2069-1410-148.

This is a basic theory that crosses over all sports and makes you and me a fortune in totals betting and each sports involves samples sizes of several thousand games. 

Week 11 NFL Winning Pick, Spread Standings Revealed

NFL winner for Sunday, November 20 from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy. 

Edit: revised line and location, the bet still applies with a strong angle.

CLEVELAND +7.5 Buffalo

Underdogs versus a great and red-hot offense is 165-101-8.  

Best teams in NFL this year based on margin of cover:

Team       ATS Record                                           ATS margin
NY Jets6-3+7.1
Dallas 6-3+5.1

The Titans and the Giants have the best spread winning percentages at 7-2 but only covering by an average of 1.8 points per game and 3.6 respectively. The Chargers are 6-3 but have a -4.9 margin of cover.

Best teams to bet against based on said criterion.

Team       ATS Record                                           ATS margin
LA Rams 2-6-1-8.7
Green Bay4-6-5.8
LA Chargers6-3-4.9
Colts4-6-4.6

Yes the Chargers have an impressive spread record but a horrible spread margin. Conversely, Jacksonville is 3-7 to the number, but has a +3.3 margin of cover. Many believe this means the Jags are undervalued, while LA Chargers would be overvalued. New Orleans is tied for the second worst spread record at 3-7 but by only a -2.3 margin. 

💰💰💰Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy.  4:25 ET Game of the Year is among nine NFL winners led by four Wise Guys! Joe Duffy is widely accepted as the top college and pro football handicapper in history, hands down. Get the picks now 

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer. 

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Wednesday Sports Pick From Top Basketball Handicapper; Top NBA O/U Teams Revealed

Free winning bet from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy is to go with:

MILWAUKEE -4 Cleveland 

An angle that says to go with the more disappointing offense season to date is 449-342-16. Based on delta points scored. Delta points scored is how many points they scored relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread. 

Our top power ratings have Milwaukee as -7.9 point favorite, giving the Bucks at very good 10 percent edge. Milwaukee covers an impressive 67 percent of simulations on our top computer model, winning by an average of 117-107. This is a very strong game insofar as our top two models matching up. 

💰💰💰Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy. Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has at least five winning picks tonight. College football total, two college hoops sides, two NBA totals. Inspired by Billy Walters and the Vegas Computer Boys, Joe Duffy has been for decades the top data scientist in sports handicapping. Get the picks now 

Top NBA over teams based on margin of cover. 

Team       OU Record (overs-under)                                         OU margin
Oklahoma City9-5+10.5
Boston9-4-1+10.4
Sacramento6-6-1+6.4

Many who compare records to margin of cover believe the Kings as an OVER team are good value. The Pistons, Hawks and are tied for second top over team with aforesaid Thunder based on percentage. Detroit goes 9-5-1 but by only 2.7 points per game, Atlanta 9-5 but by only 1.1. 

Top NBA under teams based on said criterion. 

Team       OU Record (overs-under)                                         OU margin
LA Clippers3-12-8.2
Portland4-8-2-5.1
Milwaukee5-8-4.9

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer. 

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Bills, Eagles Lose Has Some Effect on Divisional and Super Bowl Odds

The Eagles and the Bills lost this past week, but one is still the Super Bowl favorite. 

SportsBetting  updates its Super Bowl, conference, and division odds daily. Yesterday, the Eagles were +350 favorites for the NFL’s 52ndchampionship edition. Today, it’s back to the Bills, who outside of the last seven days had been the favorites since the day after Super Bowl LVI. 

The Chiefs, victors of three in a row with the MVP favorite putting on weekly quarterback clinics, remain stuck in the Super Bowl odds’ second spot.

What’s interesting when looking at the NFL division odds is that outside of the AFC East, all the favorites have better than -200 (or 1-2) odds, possibly making the second half of the season not as interesting as the first half. 

Buffalo is in third place in its division, yet still has -190 odds to take the AFC East. All division favorites have better than a 65% chance of becoming champs.

Here are the current odds and implied probabilities for each:

AFC East                       

Buffalo Bills                  -190   (65.5% chance Bills are division champs)

Miami Dolphins             +225

New York Jets               +1100

New England Patriots    +1600

AFC North                    

Baltimore Ravens          -500   (83.3% chance Ravens are division champs)

Cincinnati Bengals         +350

Cleveland Browns         +3300

Pittsburgh Steelers        +4000

AFC South                    

Tennessee Titans          -500   (83.3% chance Titans are division champs)

Jacksonville Jaguars       +600

Indianapolis Colts          +700

Houston Texans            +25000

AFC West                     

Kansas City Chiefs         -2000 (95.2% chance Chiefs are division champs)

Los Angeles Chargers    +700

Denver Broncos            +6600

Las Vegas Raiders          +10000

NFC East                       

Philadelphia Eagles       -350   (77.8% chance Eagles are division champs)

Dallas Cowboys             +450

New York Giants           +700

Commanders                +6600

NFC North                    

Minnesota Vikings         -5000 (98.0% chance Vikings are division champs)

Green Bay Packers        +1200

Detroit Lions                 +3300

Chicago Bears               +8000

NFC South                    

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  -400    (80.0% chance Bucs are division champs)

Atlanta Falcons             +500

New Orleans Saints       +900

Carolina Panthers          +2500

NFC West                     

San Francisco 49ers       -225    (69.2% chance 49ers are division champs)

Seattle Seahawks          +175

Arizona Cardinals          +4000

Los Angeles Rams          +4000

Super Bowl

Buffalo Bills                  +400

Kansas City Chiefs         +500

Philadelphia Eagles       +525

San Francisco 49ers       +750

Minnesota Vikings         +1100

Baltimore Ravens          +1200

Dallas Cowboys             +1400

Miami Dolphins             +1800

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  +1800

Cincinnati Bengals         +3300

Los Angeles Chargers    +4000

Tennessee Titans          +4000

Seattle Seahawks          +5000

New England Patriots    +6600

New York Giants           +6600

New York Jets               +6600

Green Bay Packers        +8000

Cleveland Browns         +10000

Los Angeles Rams          +10000

Commanders                +12500

Arizona Cardinals          +15000

Atlanta Falcons             +20000

Denver Broncos            +20000

Jacksonville Jaguars       +20000

New Orleans Saints       +20000

Indianapolis Colts          +25000

Las Vegas Raiders          +25000

Detroit Lions                 +40000

Carolina Panthers          +50000

Pittsburgh Steelers        +50000

Chicago Bears               +100000

Houston Texans            +200000

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First Time Ever This Player Tops NBA MVP Odds

For the first time in his young career, Jayson Tatum is the favorite to be named MVP.

Tatum’s Celtics are a on a tear, reeling off seven straight victories en route to the league’s best record.

The MVP odds at SportsBetting looked different Tuesday morning than they did Monday, when Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic were basically co-favorites. Now, there is a crowded trio at the top of the board, led by Tatum.

Additionally, it looks as if Paolo Banchero has Rookie of the Year locked up, despite not playing for more than a week due to an ankle injury. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 37 points for the second consecutive night Tuesday to boost his Most Improved Player chances while Russell Westbrook remains the heavy favorite for Sixth Man of the Year.

MVP                

Jayson Tatum              +300

Antetokounmpo         +325

Luka Doncic                 +325

Steph Curry                 +1000

JA Morant                   +1200

Joel Embiid                  +1200

Kevin Durant               +2200

Donovan Mitchell       +2500

Nikola Jokic                 +2800

Trae Young                  +4000

Zion Williamson          +4000

Damian Lillard             +4500

Devin Booker              +5000

Pascal Siakam             +6600

Jimmy Butler               +10000

LeBron James              +15000

ROY                 

Paolo Banchero          -500

Bennedict Mathurin   +400

Jaden Ivey                   +2500

Keegan Murray           +5000

Jabari Smith Jr             +10000

Most Improved Player                       

Gilgeous-Alexander    +125

Lauri Markkanen         +450

Tyrese Maxey              +500

Desmond Bane           +700

Tyrese Haliburton       +750

Keldon Johnson          +2500

Devin Vassell               +2800

De’Aaron Fox              +3300

Bol Bol                         +4000

Anthony Edwards       +5000

Anfernee Simons        +6600

Ayo Dosunmu             +8000

DPOY               

Antetokounmpo         +275

Rudy Gobert               +400

Bam Adebayo             +700

Evan Mobley               +700

OG Anunoby               +800

Joel Embiid                  +1400

Mikal Bridges              +1600

Anthony Davis             +1800

Jarrett Allen                +2500

Draymond Green        +2800

Marcus Smart             +2800

Myles Turner              +3300

Jrue Holiday                +4000

Ben Simmons              +5000

Jaren Jackson Jr.         +5000

Sixth Man                   

Russell Westbrook      +115

Jordan Poole               +290

Bennedict Mathurin   +850

Malcolm Brogdon       +1000

Christian Wood           +1400

Collin Sexton               +2000

Bobby Portis               +2200

Bones Hyland              +2800

Norman Powell           +3500

Kevin Love                   +4000

Jaylen Nowell              +6600

Max Strus                    +6600

John Wall                    +8000

Coach of the Year                   

Will Hardy                   +450

Joe Mazzulla               +700

JB Bickerstaff              +750

Chauncey Billups         +800

Mike Budenholzer      +900

Taylor Jenkins             +1000

Willie Green                +1400

Jacques Vaughn          +1800

Nate McMillan            +1800

Monty Williams          +2000

Michael Malone          +2200

Wes Unseld Jr.            +2500

Jason Kidd                   +2800

Mark Daigneault         +3300

Nick Nurse                  +3300

Tyronn Lue                  +3300

Erik Spoelstra              +3500

Billy Donovan              +4000

Chris Finch                  +4000

Gregg Popovich           +4000

Mike Brown                +4000

Rick Carlisle                 +4000

Tom Thibodeau           +4000

Doc Rivers                   +5000

Steve Clifford              +5000

Steve Kerr                   +5000

Darvin Ham                 +10000

Dwane Casey              +15000

Jamahl Mosley            +20000

Stephen Silas               +20000

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